Core Insights - The new housing market has not gained momentum despite policy support, product updates, and price stabilization [1] - The primary reason for the stagnation is the prevailing expectation issues among potential buyers [2] - The second-hand housing market has emerged as a significant obstacle to new housing sales [3] Market Dynamics - A market survey by 365 Market Research revealed that the typical "sell one buy one" replacement strategy has failed since 2021, leading to a decline in new housing transactions and an increase in second-hand housing transactions [4][5][6] - The gap between new and second-hand housing transactions has widened, with second-hand housing sales nearly doubling those of new homes in recent years [8][10] - The price difference between new and second-hand homes has increased from a maximum of 25% before 2021 to 66% currently, causing buyers to favor second-hand homes due to better pricing [9][10] Demand Shifts - The structural shift in demand has allowed first-time buyers to enter the market, competing with new homes for prime locations [11] - The current new housing market is primarily driven by improvement buyers, but the failure of the replacement chain has led to a backlog of improvement demand [14][16] - The urbanization rate in Tianjin has reached 86% by 2024, indicating a saturation point that limits new housing demand [17][21] Economic Context - The economic environment is currently in a downturn, leading to a downgrade in consumer spending and a preference for stable asset investments [22][23] - The consensus among sellers is that second-hand homes must lower prices to sell, with many opting to hold cash rather than reinvest in new homes [24][26][27] Policy Efforts - Recent policy measures, such as the "Good House" initiative and reductions in mortgage rates, aim to stimulate the new housing market [30][31] - However, the key to revitalizing new housing demand lies in stabilizing the second-hand housing market [32]

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have increased after a period of stability, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.30%, higher than the previous year’s rate of 6.08% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has not led to a decrease in mortgage rates, which is contrary to expectations [3][4] - The current housing market is characterized by high demand and limited supply, keeping home prices elevated [11][12] Mortgage Rate Trends - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 6.49%, which is 33 basis points higher than the same time last year [2] - Mortgage rates typically follow trends in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is currently at 4.12%, up from 3.75% a year ago [9][10] - The spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield is currently 2.18% [10] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, marking its first cut of the year [4][5] - Historically, mortgage rates do not always decrease following a fed funds rate cut, as seen in previous years [6][7] Housing Market Dynamics - The median sale price of single-family homes has increased from $208,400 in Q1 2009 to $410,800 by Q2 2025 [12] - The imbalance between buyers and available homes is contributing to sustained high home prices [11] Future Outlook - Predictions for mortgage rates vary, with the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting a 30-year fixed rate of 6.5% by the end of 2025, while Fannie Mae is more optimistic, predicting a drop to 5.9% [21]