Core Insights - The new housing market has not gained momentum despite policy support, product updates, and price stabilization [1] - The primary reason for the stagnation is the prevailing expectation issues among potential buyers [2] - The second-hand housing market has emerged as a significant obstacle to new housing sales [3] Market Dynamics - A market survey by 365 Market Research revealed that the typical "sell one buy one" replacement strategy has failed since 2021, leading to a decline in new housing transactions and an increase in second-hand housing transactions [4][5][6] - The gap between new and second-hand housing transactions has widened, with second-hand housing sales nearly doubling those of new homes in recent years [8][10] - The price difference between new and second-hand homes has increased from a maximum of 25% before 2021 to 66% currently, causing buyers to favor second-hand homes due to better pricing [9][10] Demand Shifts - The structural shift in demand has allowed first-time buyers to enter the market, competing with new homes for prime locations [11] - The current new housing market is primarily driven by improvement buyers, but the failure of the replacement chain has led to a backlog of improvement demand [14][16] - The urbanization rate in Tianjin has reached 86% by 2024, indicating a saturation point that limits new housing demand [17][21] Economic Context - The economic environment is currently in a downturn, leading to a downgrade in consumer spending and a preference for stable asset investments [22][23] - The consensus among sellers is that second-hand homes must lower prices to sell, with many opting to hold cash rather than reinvest in new homes [24][26][27] Policy Efforts - Recent policy measures, such as the "Good House" initiative and reductions in mortgage rates, aim to stimulate the new housing market [30][31] - However, the key to revitalizing new housing demand lies in stabilizing the second-hand housing market [32]

Mortgage rates have increased this week, after either decreasing or holding steady for nine straight weeks. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered its rate for the first time in 2025, and while people may have expected that cut to push rates farther down, the opposite has happened. So, where are home loan rates headed, and is it still a good time to buy a house? In this article: Are mortgage rates dropping? As of Sept. 25, Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages were 6.30%. This ...