Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$37,826 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$219.60 (as of January 23, 2026) - **Price Target**: HK$325.00, indicating a potential upside of 48% from the current price Key Points Sales and Product Performance - The new product series "Twinkle Twinkle" is expected to account for over 50% of Labubu sales in China in 2026, indicating strong market momentum [2][2] - Proactive supply ramping will allow Pop Mart to better meet demand surges, smoothing sales curves and capping resale premiums [2][2] - China accounts for 55-60% of group sales, with the market being undersupplied in the second half of 2025 [2][2] - Popular product restocking and new releases in the "Twinkle Twinkle" series present potential upside surprises in the Chinese market [2][2] Regional Market Insights - The Asia Pacific momentum is expected to continue, particularly in Japan, which is projected to be significantly larger than Southeast Asian markets in the long term [2][2] - The US and European offline markets are anticipated to be key growth drivers, while online sales will face a high base comparison in Q3 2026 [2][2] Investment Sentiment and Valuation - Pop Mart is viewed as a productive platform for various intellectual properties (IPs) to grow, suggesting that a surge in demand for specific IPs is not a prerequisite for stock ownership [2][2] - The strong growth of "Twinkle Twinkle" serves as a catalyst for momentum investors to reassess their investment thesis regarding Pop Mart [2][2] - Share buybacks have positively influenced investor sentiment, with notable buying interest from investors waiting for catalysts [2][2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb 37,890 million - 2026: Rmb 47,884 million - 2027: Rmb 58,076 million - **Net Income Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb 12,717 million - 2026: Rmb 15,424 million - 2027: Rmb 18,574 million - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: Rmb 9.59 - 2026: Rmb 11.63 - 2027: Rmb 14.00 - The current P/E ratio is 80.9, with projected ratios decreasing to 20.5 in 2025 and 16.9 in 2026 [3][3] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks include faster overseas growth, successful new product rollouts, and sustained momentum in China [2][2] - Downside risks involve a weak macroeconomic environment, uncertainties related to new products, and challenges in overseas expansion [2][2] Additional Insights - The plush toy "Crush on You" from the "Twinkle Twinkle" series sold out quickly on Tmall and Douyin, with significant unit sales indicating strong consumer interest [6][6] - Comparatively, the plush toy "Have a Good Run" sold 20,000+ units on its launch day, showcasing the competitive landscape of product launches [6][6] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections for Pop Mart International Group, highlighting its market position, growth potential, and associated risks.