Core Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the economic outlook, with one showing "cautious optimism" while the other described the situation for workers as "precarious" [2][8] - The job market has been slower than usual, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% in December, indicating stabilization after a slowdown [2][3] - Consumer sentiment surveys reveal a pessimistic outlook, with expectations of rising unemployment and fewer job openings [3][8] Economic Implications - If the job market deteriorates, the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates to prevent mass unemployment [4] - The Fed is currently balancing its dual mandate of maintaining employment while controlling inflation, which is above the 2% target [5][6] - Fed officials are monitoring economic data closely for signs of job market collapse or renewed inflation [6][7] Upcoming Data - The next significant economic report on job creation and unemployment is expected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [7] - Forecasters predict the economy added 60,000 jobs in January, an increase from 50,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to remain stable [9]

U.S. stock futures were swinging between gains and losses on Thursday as the Dow Jones fell after yesterday’s rotation out of tech stocks. Futures of major benchmark indices were mixed.On Wednesday, the benchmark indices ultimately finished mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping about 351 points as investors shifted focus.Moving forward, corporate results are the primary driver for markets, with Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) taking center stage as it reports after the bell today. In tandem, market partic ...

The RBA’s February rate hike marked a decisive shift for Australian markets, with the cash rate lifted to 3.85% and the risk of further tightening back in focus for 2026.In our latest research article, we explain what this hawkish pivot means for equity valuations and why higher rates are increasing pressure on banks, retailers and growth stocks. More importantly, we outline where we see opportunity re-emerging as capital rotates toward hard assets and global earners.The report takes a close look at resourc ...

Precious metals sold off violently on Friday after President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman, ending a powerful rally that had stretched for weeks. • SPDR Gold Shares stock is showing notable weakness. What’s behind GLD decline?Silver prices plunged as much as 33% to $78 an ounce during midday trading in New York, marking a historic reversal from the explosive gains the metal had posted earlier in the month. If the session closes near these levels, it would be silver' ...

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve could bring about sweeping changes at a central bank that dominates the global economy and markets like no other. Warsh, if approved by the Senate, will be under close scrutiny from financial markets and Congress given his appointment by a president who has loudly demanded much lower rates than many economists think are justified by economic conditions. Whether he can maintain the Fed's long time independence ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to pause interest rate cuts, with several policymakers and economists forecasting further cuts later this year—as concerns spread in recent weeks about the central bank’s independence from the Trump administration.Some Fed officials have forecast interest rate cuts later this year, but not in January.Getty ImagesKey FactsThe Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 in favor of holding interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%.Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to pause interest rate cuts on Wednesday, with several policymakers and economists forecasting further cuts later this year—as concerns spread in recent weeks about the central bank’s independence from the Trump administration. Some Fed officials have forecast interest rate cuts later this year, but not in January.Getty ImagesKey FactsTraders have priced in 2.8% odds of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee lowering interest rates from a 3.5% to 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its key interest rate steady at its upcoming meeting, with ongoing discussions about the independence of the central bank from political pressures [1][9]. Interest Rate Expectations - Financial markets anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the fed funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with a 97% probability of no change according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [2]. - Following three consecutive rate cuts, Fed officials show little interest in further reductions, opting to hold rates steady for several months to evaluate economic responses [3][11]. Economic Implications - The decision to keep rates unchanged is likely to influence market reactions regarding potential future rate cuts later in the year [4]. - Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target since 2021, and the job market is experiencing a slowdown, although recent data suggests improvements [5]. Political Pressures - President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to lower interest rates and has initiated legal actions against Fed officials, which Powell has described as intimidation [7]. - The perception of the Fed's independence is crucial for its ability to control inflation, and political interference could undermine this perception [8]. Future Outlook - Economists expect the Fed to pause rate cuts and establish a higher threshold for future reductions, as the job market stabilizes and inflation approaches target levels [11].

Market Overview - The current market is characterized as a "bull" despite its volatility, with significant changes in policy and rapid news cycles making it challenging for investors to navigate [2][3] - The market has experienced a substantial run, and it is uncommon for a bear market to occur with falling interest rates, rising earnings, and the Federal Reserve in a cutting cycle while stocks approach all-time highs [3] Sector Performance - There is broad market expansion, with positive movements observed in various sectors including biotechnology, banking, natural resources, small caps, and midcaps, aided by deregulation benefiting smaller companies [4] - Earnings expectations for midcaps are projected at 17% and for small caps at 19% for the year, indicating a significant turnaround from previous years [5] Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to manage interest rates are crucial for the market's trajectory, especially as the economy is being stimulated heavily [6][8] - The upcoming Supreme Court decision regarding tariffs could have significant implications for the market, but it may also present a buying opportunity if tariffs are deemed unconstitutional [10] Risks and Considerations - There are numerous risks present in the market that investors should remain aware of, including inflation control and the sustainability of the rate-cutting cycle [6][11] - The current economic environment is described as a narrow path, where the administration is attempting to stimulate the economy while maintaining the Fed's capacity to lower interest rates [9][10]

By John Revill DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Central bank independence is crucial to controlling inflation, Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Wednesday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve chair faces a criminal probe and an onslaught of ​attacks from President Donald Trump. The SNB was one of several central banks that lined up in support of Jerome Powell ‌last week after Trump's Justice Department threatened him with a criminal indictment. Powell has called the investigation, whic ...