周四，瑞士央行决定将基准利率维持在零水平不变，这是该行连续第二次维持零利率。这一决定符合预期，接受彭博调查的23位经济学家均预测 瑞士央行将维持利率不变。 央行行长Martin Schlegel表示，近几个月的通胀略低于预期，货币政策有助于确保未来几个季度通胀缓慢上升。与此同时，央行下调了未来两年的 通胀预期。该行将2026年通胀预期从此前的0.5%下调至0.3%，将2027年预期从0.7%降至0.6%。 决议公布后，瑞士法郎延续此前涨势，兑欧元汇率上涨0.1%至0.9346，兑美元上涨0.2%至0.7985，创11月18日以来最高水平。 央行官员此前表示，重新引入负利率将对金融系统造成损害，因此采取这一措施需要更高的标准。 通胀前景持续疲弱 强势瑞郎是抑制通胀的核心因素之一。货币升值通过降低进口成本持续对国内物价形成下行压力。近期瑞郎走强的最新催化因素，是瑞士与美国 最终达成贸易协议的乐观信号。此前瑞士承受着发达经济体中最高之一的关税压力，协议的推进缓解了贸易不确定性，助推了瑞郎升值。 在此背景下，瑞士央行将2025年经济增长预期上调至"约1%"，较9月预测的"略低于1%"更为积极，显示在通胀持续低迷、汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop in prices following a series of record highs, leading to varied responses in investment and consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of October 21, the international spot gold price fell sharply by 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1] - On October 22, gold prices further declined, approaching the $4000 per ounce mark [1] - The fluctuation in gold prices has triggered a chain reaction in both investment and consumer markets, with online gold stores preparing for the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Major brands continue to price gold jewelry at high levels, with prices for mainstream brands like Chow Tai Fook at 1223 CNY per gram and other brands similarly priced [2] - Brand representatives indicate that significant price adjustments are unlikely until there is a sustained downward trend in gold prices [2] - Consumers are finding opportunities for better deals online during the "Double Eleven" event, with platforms offering exclusive coupons for gold purchases [2] Group 3: Regulatory and Quality Standards - The purity labeling of gold has been standardized, with the national standard stating that gold content must be no less than 990‰ to be labeled as "foot gold" [4] - The previous terms like "thousand-foot gold" and "ten-thousand-foot gold" have been eliminated to prevent price inflation based on purity claims [4] Group 4: Secondary Market Activity - The second-hand market for gold is becoming increasingly active, with users listing gold jewelry for resale on platforms like Xianyu [4] - Some sellers are pricing second-hand items above official retail prices, which may be due to supply shortages in brand stores [4][15] - The wholesale market in Shenzhen shows a significant price difference, with gold priced at 936 CNY per gram, reflecting a 40% increase since January [15] Group 5: Investment Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence in the investment market, with long-term investors seeing substantial gains while short-term traders face losses [16] - Long-term investors, such as those in hedge funds, maintain a positive outlook on gold despite recent price corrections, citing ongoing factors like de-dollarization and inflation expectations [16] - Short-term investors are experiencing pressure from recent declines, with many choosing to hold their positions rather than sell at a loss [18]

Inflation Expectations - The New York Fed's inflation expectations rose for the one-year term to 3.1% [1] - The five-year inflation expectation, which the Fed is most concerned about, increased by three ticks to 2.9% [2] - Expectations for gas prices, medical care, college, and rent all declined [2] Unemployment Expectations - Unemployment expectations dropped 2.3 percentage points, reaching the lowest reading since January 2025 [2] - There is less concern about job loss, but paradoxically more concern about finding a job [3] Interest Rate Expectations - A rate cut for September is almost fully priced in [3] - October is also priced in, and December has been the swing factor with a 51% probability [3][4] Fed Chair Candidate - Chris Waller is considered a front runner to become Fed chair [4] - Waller has presented the most convincing economic monetary policy argument for a rate cut [5] - Many Fed watchers, investors, and fixed income folks would be happy with Chris Waller [5] - Waller has shown flexibility to disagree with the chair and agree with the president on the issue of rate cuts [6]