Welcome back to Squad Clocks. Rick Santella here live at CME HQ with the breaking news on this Thursday morning. Post 25 base point rate cut by the Fed, third consecutive one.Initial jobless claims for the week of December 6th. Well, we're expecting a number around 220,000. Uh it has been extremely well behaved.I still don't see it on the wires. We'll go to the trade balance next. Trade balance minus 52.8% 8 billion.That's a better lower trade deficit than we expected. We were looking for a number closer to ...

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a decline in overall market sentiment, remaining in the "Greed" zone with a current reading of 52.2, down from 55.3 [1][5] - U.S. stocks settled lower, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 100 points and the S&P 500 declining for the third consecutive session [1][4] Company Performance - Accenture (NYSE: ACN) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results [2] - CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) shares dipped 20% after reporting second-quarter EPS and sales below estimates [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. durable goods orders increased by 2.9% month-over-month to $312.1 billion in August, contrasting with a revised 2.7% decline in July and exceeding market estimates of a 0.5% fall [3] - The U.S. trade deficit in goods decreased by $17.3 billion month-over-month to $85.5 billion in August, compared to market estimates of $95.65 billion [3] - Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, against market estimates of 235,000 [3] - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, up from 3.3% in the second estimate [3] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with materials, health care, and consumer discretionary stocks experiencing the largest losses [4] - Energy and information technology stocks closed higher, bucking the overall market trend [4]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Nasdaq Composite increasing by over 150 points on Thursday. The Dow rose by 1.32% to 46,089.25, the NASDAQ increased by 0.72% to 22,044.49, and the S&P 500 gained 0.80% to 6,584.57 [1] - Consumer discretionary shares saw a notable increase of 1.6% on Thursday [1] Company Earnings - Kroger Company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.04, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 99 cents. Quarterly sales reached $33.94 billion, slightly below the consensus of $34.102 billion [3] - Kroger raised its FY25 adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $4.70–$4.80, up from the previous range of $4.60–$4.80, compared to the analyst consensus of $4.77. Adjusted identical sales without fuel are expected to rise between 2.7% and 3.4%, an increase from the prior view of 2.25% to 3.25% [4] Stock Movements - MOGU Inc. shares surged by 110% to $5.24 after the company approved a strategic allocation of up to $20 million to digital currencies [10] - Opendoor Technologies Inc. saw its shares increase by 56% to $9.17 following the appointment of a new CEO and the return of co-founders to the board [10] - Vince Holding Corp. shares rose by 92% to $3.1908 after reporting better-than-expected quarterly financial results [10] - Robin Energy Ltd. shares dropped by 41% to $1.3501 after announcing a public offering of shares [10] - Avidity Biosciences, Inc. shares fell by 19% to $37.42 following a $500 million common stock offering [10] - The Lovesac Company shares decreased by 14% to $17.89 after cutting FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance and narrowing its sales outlook [10] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil prices fell by 1.8% to $62.54, while gold decreased by 0.4% to $3,668.70. Silver prices increased by 0.6% to $41.840, and copper rose by 0.4% to $4.6370 [7]

Economic Indicators - Non-farm productivity jumps to 33%, exceeding expectations of under 3%, marking the best performance since the last quarter of 2023 [1] - Unit labor costs moderate to 1%, the smallest since a negative 15% in the third quarter of 2024 [2] - Initial jobless claims rise to 237000, up 8000 from a non-revised 229000, equaling the second to last week in June, with the higher one in mid-June at 246000 [2] - Continuing claims are slightly lower at 1940000, maintaining a string above 19 million, comparable to November 2021 [3] - The trade deficit comes in at approximately minus 78 billion, compared to a revised minus 59 billion previously [4] Market Reaction - Following the data release, the 10-year Treasury yield decreases by three basis points, moving from around 418% to 419% [4] Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims remain well-behaved, but exceeding 250000 would warrant greater scrutiny [4][5] - Government work week data has not deteriorated, remaining at or above 341% since the beginning of the year [5][6]

Labor Market Overview - June job additions were better than expected, with 147,000 jobs added [2] - The unemployment rate stands at 41%, equaling the rate in February [3] - Labor force participation decreased slightly to 623% [6] Earnings and Hours - Average hourly earnings increased by 02%, falling short of the expected 03% [3] - Year-over-year average hourly earnings were 37%, the lowest yearly rate since July of last year [4] - Average weekly hours worked were 342%, matching the rate in February [5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 233,000 [7] - Continuing claims are at 1964 million, comparable to 2021 levels [7] - The trade balance for May shows a deficit of 715 billion [7] Market Reaction - The positive job report and revision caused a rise in yield [8] - Dow futures more than doubled, indicating a positive market response [9] - The report raises questions about the need for economic easing [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a revised Q1 GDP growth of -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), which is an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates [1][6] Core Insights - The revision details show softer underlying growth, particularly in real domestic final sales, which were revised down by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a 0.6 percentage point downward revision in consumer spending growth [1][6] - The contribution of inventory accumulation to GDP growth was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6 percentage points, while net exports' contribution was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to -4.9 percentage points [6][7] - Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.2% in Q1, influenced by a significant drag from net dividends, which saw a $125 billion increase from the rest of the world, the largest since 2018 [7][8] - Core PCE inflation for April is forecasted at 0.10%, leading to a year-over-year rate of 2.49%, while headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.09%, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.12% [8][9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, exceeding expectations, with continuing claims also showing an increase [9][10] Summary by Sections GDP and Economic Activity - Q1 GDP growth was revised to -0.2%, with consumer spending growth revised down to +1.2% [2][6] - Equipment investment growth saw a significant upward revision to +24.8% [6][7] Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was revised down to +3.41% annualized, with the year-on-year rate at +2.76% [8] - The GDP deflator was also revised down to +3.70% annualized [8] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 240,000, with a four-week moving average remaining at 231,000 [9][10]