| 指标（季度环，SAAR） | 实际值 | 先前预估 | | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | +4.4% | +4.3% | | GDI | +2.4% | +2.4% | | 消费支出 | +3.5% | +3.5% | | 住宅投资 | -7.1% | -5.1% | | 非住宅投资 | +3.2% | +2.8% | 责任编辑：刘明亮 美国经济第三季度增长幅度略高于初步报告，主要得益于出口以更为强劲的步伐增长。 根据美国经济分析局周四发布的数据，经通胀调整后的国内生产总值修正后折合年率增长4.4%，为两 年来的最快。该指标衡量美国商品和服务产出价值。 美国经济第三季度增长幅度略高于初步报告，主要得益于出口以更为强劲的步伐增长。 根据美国经济分析局周四发布的数据，经通胀调整后的国内生产总值修正后折合年率增长4.4%，为两 年来的最快。该指标衡量美国商品和服务产出价值。 | 指标（季度环，SAAR） | 实际值 | 先前预估 | | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | +4.4% | +4.3% | | GDI | +2.4% | +2.4% | | 消费支出 | +3 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Friday following a higher close on Wednesday, with major benchmark indices showing a decrease [1][2] - The Dow Jones futures fell by 0.12%, S&P 500 by 0.06%, Nasdaq 100 by 0.06%, and Russell 2000 by 0.27% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) decreased by 0.029% to $690.18, while Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell by 0.014% to $623.84 in premarket trading [2] Economic Data - U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 214,000 for the week ending Dec. 20, better than market expectations of 223,000 [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.15%, and the two-year bond yield was at 3.51% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 84.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January [2] Company Highlights - Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ:DVAX) shares surged by 38.19% following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccines company [5] - Davis Commodities Ltd. (NASDAQ:DTCK) reported revenue of $95 million for the six months ending June 30, a 42.1% increase from $66.9 million a year earlier, leading to a 7.19% rise in its shares [4] - Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose by 0.58% after announcing a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq [5] - Sobr Safe Inc. (NASDAQ:SOBR) shares dropped by 15.61% after announcing a private placement of 1.29 million shares at $1.55 per share [5][6] - Biohaven Ltd. (NYSE:BHVN) shares fell by 14.06% after its Phase 2 study of BHV-7000 in major depressive disorder failed to meet its primary endpoint [13] Analyst Insights - University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers criticized the media's focus on record stock numbers, stating that U.S. markets are up 18% but lag behind global markets, which have risen by 30% [9][10] - Wolfers highlighted a disconnect between GDP growth of over 4% and a more modest Gross Domestic Income (GDI) growth of 2.4%, suggesting potential job creation stagnation [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy exhibited its fastest expansion in two years during the third quarter, driven by strong consumer and business spending along with more stable trade policies [1] Economic Performance - Consumer spending, the largest pillar of the U.S. economy, grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, significantly higher than the 2.5% growth in the second quarter, indicating strong consumer willingness despite borrowing cost pressures [5] - Non-residential investment continued to grow but saw a slowdown from 7.3% in the previous quarter to 2.8% [5] - Residential investment declined by 5.1%, consistent with the previous quarter's decline [5] - Gross Domestic Income (GDI) increased by 2.4%, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter [6] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The economic report reflects growth momentum despite the withdrawal of Trump-era tariff policies, with the BEA adjusting its data release schedule due to a record-long government shutdown [7] - Economists anticipate that the government shutdown may pressure fourth-quarter growth, but there is cautious optimism for 2026, with expectations of a mild rebound as households receive tax refunds and potential judicial rulings may overturn extensive global tariff policies [7] Federal Reserve Position - Strong economic data aligns with the Federal Reserve's latest forecasts, with Chairman Powell citing supportive fiscal policies, spending on AI data centers, and sustained household consumption as key growth drivers for next year [8] - Some officials remain hesitant to significantly lower borrowing costs due to inflation rates exceeding the Fed's 2% target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% in the third quarter [8] Key Economic Indicators - The annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8% [9] - The annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index was 2.9%, matching expectations and up from 2.6% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward revision of the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth, primarily driven by improved business investment and significant trade contributions [1][4] - Business investment growth was revised from an initial 1.9% to 5.7%, reflecting enhanced investments in software and transportation equipment [4] - Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth, marking the highest level on record, contrasting with the previous quarter where net exports had a negative impact [4][9] Group 2 - Consumer spending showed resilience with a second-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.6%, up from the initial estimate of 1.4%, contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP growth [5][6] - The real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key indicator of consumer demand, grew at a steady rate of 1.9% for two consecutive quarters, indicating stable underlying demand [5][6] - Retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, expressed optimism about consumer resilience despite rising prices due to tariffs [5] Group 3 - The revised second-quarter actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 3.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [7] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter remained steady at 2.5%, aligning with initial estimates [7][12] Group 4 - Domestic Gross Income (GDI) surged by 4.8% in the second quarter, contrasting sharply with a mere 0.2% increase in the first quarter, indicating a rebound in economic activity [11] - Corporate profits increased by 1.7% in the second quarter, reversing the largest decline since 2020 recorded in the first quarter [11] - The share of after-tax profits of non-financial corporations remained stable at 15.7%, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting robust profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a revised Q1 GDP growth of -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), which is an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates [1][6] Core Insights - The revision details show softer underlying growth, particularly in real domestic final sales, which were revised down by 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a 0.6 percentage point downward revision in consumer spending growth [1][6] - The contribution of inventory accumulation to GDP growth was revised up by 0.3 percentage points to 2.6 percentage points, while net exports' contribution was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to -4.9 percentage points [6][7] - Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.2% in Q1, influenced by a significant drag from net dividends, which saw a $125 billion increase from the rest of the world, the largest since 2018 [7][8] - Core PCE inflation for April is forecasted at 0.10%, leading to a year-over-year rate of 2.49%, while headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.09%, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.12% [8][9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, exceeding expectations, with continuing claims also showing an increase [9][10] Summary by Sections GDP and Economic Activity - Q1 GDP growth was revised to -0.2%, with consumer spending growth revised down to +1.2% [2][6] - Equipment investment growth saw a significant upward revision to +24.8% [6][7] Inflation Metrics - Core PCE inflation was revised down to +3.41% annualized, with the year-on-year rate at +2.76% [8] - The GDP deflator was also revised down to +3.70% annualized [8] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 240,000, with a four-week moving average remaining at 231,000 [9][10]