Somebody has to play the bad guy. Might as well be me. In the last two months, regular viewers of this show know I've gotten cautious on the more speculative stocks connected to the data center and AI.I've said repeatedly that when I say insider selling and secondary offerings, borrowings, and operations with no revenue, I'd have to take a step back. I had proclaimed 2025 is the year of magical investing where if you bought anything, anything at all that's involved in the data center, you made money. Earlie ...

Group 1: Las Vegas Sands Corp - Las Vegas Sands Corp reported a significant increase in revenue, driven by a resurgence in tourism and gaming activities in Macau and Singapore [1] - The company's net income rose to $1.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 25% [1] - Las Vegas Sands is focusing on expanding its footprint in the Asian market, particularly in integrated resort developments [1] Group 2: Netflix Inc - Netflix Inc experienced a subscriber growth of 10 million in the last quarter, surpassing market expectations [1] - The company's revenue reached $8.5 billion, marking a 15% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Netflix is investing heavily in original content to maintain its competitive edge in the streaming industry [1] Group 3: TE Connectivity Ltd - TE Connectivity Ltd reported a revenue increase of 8% year-over-year, totaling $3.5 billion [1] - The company is benefiting from strong demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [1] - TE Connectivity is focusing on innovation and sustainability in its product offerings to drive future growth [1]

Core Insights - Ronald Dail, Chief Operating Officer of Huron Consulting Group, sold 7,991 shares for approximately $1.4 million, representing about 20.5% of his direct holdings at the time of the transaction [1][3][10] Transaction Summary - The transaction involved the sale of 7,991 shares valued at ~$1.4 million, with post-transaction holdings of 31,017 shares worth ~$5.1 million [2] - The sale was executed at a weighted average price of $169.56 per share, while the stock closed at $164.44 on October 31 [5] Historical Context - This sale is the largest executed by Dail in the past year, significantly exceeding previous sales of 1,421 shares and 600 shares [4] - Cumulatively, Dail's net sales in 2025 have reduced his direct holdings by 24.4% since February [6] Company Overview - Huron Consulting Group employs 6,405 individuals and reported a revenue of $1.6 billion with a net income of $108.4 million [7] - The company experienced a 42.1% price change over the past year, indicating strong market performance [7] Business Strategy - Huron Consulting Group focuses on high-value consulting across healthcare, education, and business advisory sectors, emphasizing technology-enabled solutions and deep industry expertise [8][9] - The company generates revenue through advisory and managed services aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and digital enablement [9] Recent Performance - Following the third-quarter earnings release, Huron's revenue before reimbursable expenses increased by 16.8% year-over-year to $432.4 million, with earnings per share growing over 16% to $0.24 [11] - Management projects revenue for the year to be between $1.65 billion and $1.67 billion, reflecting an annual growth rate of 11.4% at the midpoint [12]

Core Insights - Corporate insiders are currently exhibiting a more bearish outlook than during the dot-com boom or the pandemic [1] Group 1 - Insiders' sentiment has shifted significantly, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [1] - The current level of pessimism among corporate insiders is unprecedented compared to historical downturns [1] - This bearish sentiment may signal potential challenges ahead for the broader market [1]

Group 1: NVIDIA - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang sold nearly $100 million worth of shares in October, raising concerns among investors [3][4] - Huang's sales were executed under a 10b5-1 plan, indicating they were predetermined and not influenced by recent market events [5][6] - Sales under a 10b5-1 plan should not be interpreted as immediate bearish signals, although a long-term increase in such sales could be a negative indicator [6] Group 2: Dell Technologies - Private equity investor Silver Lake Technology Associates has sold over $600 million worth of Dell shares since September, which raises concerns [8][9] - The sales were not conducted under a predetermined plan, contrasting with NVIDIA's situation [8] - Silver Lake's sales align with a typical 10-12 year liquidation timeline for private equity funds, suggesting these sales may not indicate a lack of confidence in Dell's outlook [10][11] Group 3: T-Mobile US - Deutsche Telekom has sold more than $250 million worth of T-Mobile shares since September, but these sales are not concerning [13][14] - The sales were also executed under a 10b5-1 plan, and Deutsche Telekom aims to maintain a stake above 50% in T-Mobile [14] - The company is on track to sell significantly fewer shares in 2025 compared to 2024, indicating a stable outlook for T-Mobile [15] Group 4: Overall Insights - The analysis indicates that while there has been around $1 billion in insider sales across NVIDIA, Dell, and T-Mobile, none of these sales appear particularly bearish [16] - Each insider sale should be evaluated individually, as they may not all provide negative signals to investors [16]

Weeks ago I kept sharing very important data, such as insider selling or supply in profit, or other important macro data. Guess who ignored it once again? Greedy Bulls!THE BIG SHORT PARTY MUST GO ON https://t.co/aIFghz4HCq ...

#Bitcoin/ Stock market – What’s Next?The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:This is the last post I am going to publish this month. I will be back in November, in the meantime I will drink tea, tea and even more tea. The market is entering a highly unstable zone. Yet people cant see or understand due to the euphoria in the market, and yet my Sell Zone of 115-125k region remains a large distribution area in which large players are selling into the crowd that is buying ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir Technologies is experiencing a decline in stock value, with concerns about overvaluation and insider selling impacting investor sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Palantir's stock is down approximately 2.5% over the last 30 days, raising concerns about a potential correction due to its high valuation metrics [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 517.27, indicating significant overvaluation based on traditional metrics [1] - Analysts have set a price target of $136.61 for Palantir, suggesting an 11.52% downside from the current price of $154.40 [12] Group 2: Insider Selling and Its Implications - Recent insider selling has raised alarms among investors, as it may indicate executives are aware of negative information that could affect stock value [3][9] - Most recent insider trades were executed under a Rule 10b5-1(c) plan, which is designed to prevent insider trading and indicates that these sales were pre-planned [4][11] - Insiders often sell shares to diversify their wealth or cover personal expenses, rather than signaling a lack of confidence in the company's future [10] Group 3: Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) Concerns - Palantir has faced criticism for its high levels of stock-based compensation, which totaled $1.57 billion as of June 2025, reflecting a 30% year-over-year increase [7][8] - High SBC can lead to dilution of existing shares, negatively impacting shareholder value and making the stock appear more expensive on a per-share basis [6][12] - The exclusion of SBC from "adjusted earnings" presentations may obscure the true cost of compensation, potentially misleading investors about the company's financial health [12] Group 4: Recent Partnerships and Business Developments - Palantir has formed a new partnership with Lumen Technologies, which is leveraging Palantir's Foundry and AIP programs to enhance its operations [13] - The partnership with Lear, a global automotive leader, has reportedly generated $30 million in cost savings in the first half of 2025, showcasing the effectiveness of Palantir's platforms [14]

Group 1: Company Overview - NVIDIA's stock price is currently at $157.22, with a 52-week range of $86.62 to $158.71 and a P/E ratio of 50.66 [2][10] - The company has recently launched its latest product, Blackwell, which is positioned to maintain NVIDIA's leadership in the semiconductor industry [7][9] - Insider selling has occurred, with CEO Jensen Huang selling up to $11.8 million and director A. Brooke Seawell selling just under $16 million worth of stock [4][5] Group 2: Market Performance - NVIDIA's stock experienced a decline of 5.3% at the end of June 2025 but quickly recovered to 97% of its 52-week high, indicating strong market momentum [4][10] - The stock has shown a one-year performance increase of up to 27.5%, reflecting positive investor sentiment despite insider selling [5] - Analyst ratings remain positive, with a 12-month price forecast of $175.78, indicating an upside potential of 11.96% [10][12] Group 3: Industry Context - The semiconductor industry operates in cycles of research and development followed by sales, with NVIDIA currently in the sales cycle for Blackwell [6] - Countries like the UAE are seeking to acquire Blackwell computers to enhance their data centers and AI capabilities, indicating strong demand for NVIDIA's products [8] - Major tech companies like Amazon and Meta have recognized the capabilities of Blackwell, further solidifying NVIDIA's position in the market [9]

Market Valuation - The market was overvalued at the beginning of the year, then crashed to near bear market levels, down almost 20% for the S&P 500, reaching fair value, but has since recovered by 10% and is now slightly overvalued [3] - The speaker believes the market is slightly overvalued, contrasting with a fair valuation assessment from one to two weeks prior [4] Insider Trading Trends - Insider buying trends historically correlate with market valuation, with insider buying often signaling a good time to buy [4] - The historical average buy-to-sell ratio for insiders is about 04% [6] - Significant insider buying activity occurred during market downturns such as the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 2012 US government shutdown, and the 2020 pandemic when the market was down 30% within two weeks [7] - Recently, insider activity picked up as the market approached bear market territory, rising above the 04% average to around 05% in the last two months, suggesting insiders view it as a reasonably good time to buy [7][8] Data Analysis Methodology - The insider trading chart displays monthly cumulative data, calculated by dividing total insider buy counts by total sell counts for that month [9] - The calculation includes public market trading at current stock prices, excluding option exercises or private market deals [10] - The analysis counts transactions rather than the number of shares, though a "shares volume option" has been added this month [10][11] - Analyzing the buy-sell ratio is considered more effective than analyzing the sell-buy ratio [11][12] - Insider behavior as a group is more indicative of market trends than individual insider actions [13]