Gold and silver hovered near record highs, after slower-than-expected inflation in the US supported bets for more interest-rate cuts. Spot gold was near $4,330 an ounce by mid-morning Friday in New York, and on track for a second weekly gain. The core US consumer price index rose at the slowest pace since early 2021, according to data released Thursday, bolstering the case for lower borrowing costs – a tailwind for non-yielding precious metals. Most Read from Bloomberg However, the latest inflation re ...

U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday.The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets price a 86% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut this week, according to LSEG, but investors are concerned that the Fed could be cautious about the outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's accompanying comments could af ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up, indicating a positive market sentiment following a mixed session where the Dow reached a record high while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced pullbacks [1] - Current index performance shows the Dow up +103 points, S&P 500 up +22, Nasdaq up +151, and Russell 2000 up +7 points [1] Economic Indicators - The government shutdown is ongoing, now on Day 43, with a House vote scheduled to discuss re-opening [2] - Upcoming economic reports such as CPI, PPI, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales are still possible, which could provide insights into the economy ahead of the holiday shopping season [2] Inflation Insights - Year-over-year Consumer Price Inflation is currently at +3%, up from +2.3% in April, with expectations to reach +3.1% for October [3] - This increase in inflation is significant for the Federal Reserve's considerations regarding future interest-rate cuts [4] Company Earnings Reports - Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) reported Q3 earnings of 22 cents per share, beating expectations, with revenues of $1.19 billion, a +20.6% year-over-year increase; however, the stock is down -2% [5] - On Holding (ONON) exceeded earnings expectations with 50 cents per share versus the anticipated 34 cents, and revenues of $992.9 million, leading to a +23% increase in shares [6] - McGraw-Hill (MH) reported an earnings surprise of +300%, with earnings of $1.40 per share compared to the expected $0.35, and revenues of $669.2 million, resulting in a +14% increase in shares [7]

Core Viewpoint - The central banker expresses skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to implement further interest-rate cuts due to ongoing inflation and the effects of previous monetary easing from completed rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rates** - The central banker doubts the feasibility of additional interest-rate cuts by the Fed [1] - **Inflation** - Persistent inflation remains a significant concern that influences the central bank's decision-making process [1] - **Monetary Policy** - Previous rate cuts have already contributed to monetary easing, which complicates the potential for future cuts [1]

Core Insights - U.S. headline inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.0% in September, up from 2.9% in August, which was below economists' expectations of 3.1% [2] - Core inflation unexpectedly eased to 3.0% from 3.1%, contrary to expectations for it to remain unchanged [2] - The data has strengthened market expectations for a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability now priced in, up from 94% prior to the data release [2] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data, the dollar declined, reflecting market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 47,000, indicating a positive market response to the inflation report [1]

Core Point - The Central Bank of Turkey has reduced its benchmark interest rate from 40.5% to 39.5% [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects the Central Bank's ongoing monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - The reduction in the benchmark rate indicates a shift in the Central Bank's approach to managing inflation and economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - SharkNinja Inc. is positioned for potential growth due to improving macroeconomic conditions, including consumer spending and anticipated interest rate cuts, which could enhance demand for housing-related appliances [1][2]. Economic Context - Recent trends indicate a rise in U.S. retail sales, averaging a 0.6% monthly increase over the past quarter, suggesting a return of consumer resilience beneficial for SharkNinja [3]. - Goldman Sachs has expressed a bullish outlook on the retail sector, supporting the notion that lower inflation and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts will boost consumer confidence and spending [2]. Housing Market Exposure - SharkNinja's customer base includes new and existing homeowners, making it significantly exposed to the real estate cycle, which presents both risks and opportunities [4]. - Building permits in the U.S. are at their lowest since 2020, indicating a decline in new-home demand, which has contributed to SharkNinja's stock trading at 73% of its 52-week high [5]. Stock Performance and Sentiment - SharkNinja's stock recently experienced a 5.3% rally in one week, with a decrease in short interest by 4.9%, indicating a potentially bullish market sentiment [7][8]. - The company's Q2 2025 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.97, exceeding the forecast of $0.78 by 24%, reinforcing investor confidence [9]. Future Earnings and Valuation - Analysts project a 12-month stock price forecast of $126.71, representing a 35.7% upside from current levels, with a consensus EPS estimate for Q3 2025 of $1.42, a 46% increase from the previous quarter [10][11]. - SharkNinja currently trades at a P/E ratio of 25.5x, which is a premium compared to the retail sector average of 18.9x, indicating that the market expects growth but has not fully priced in the potential upside [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - SharkNinja is seen as emerging from a period of unjustified weakness, with accelerating earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions, making it an attractive option for medium- to long-term investors [13]. - The company is positioned for a sustained rally into 2026, driven by earnings expansion and potential multiple expansion [12].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's profit exceeded market expectations in Q3, driven by a significant increase in dealmaking and record revenue [1][2] - The investment banking pipeline is at "all-time highs," with potential for breaking 2021 deal volume records next year [1][3] Financial Performance - The bank's profit surged to $4.6 billion, or $2.80 per share, surpassing expectations of $2.10 per share [7] - Total quarterly revenue reached a record $18.2 billion, exceeding expectations of $16.7 billion [7] - Investment banking revenue increased by 44% to $2.11 billion compared to the previous year [8] Wealth Management - Wealth management assets under management reached $8.9 trillion, approaching the goal of $10 trillion, with a pre-tax margin of 30.3% [2][6] - A strong wealth management business is expected to support ongoing investment banking activities [6] Market Conditions - Global mergers and acquisitions activity surpassed $3 trillion this year, fueled by a resilient U.S. economy and favorable market conditions [3] - The CFO noted improved GDP expectations and lower debt costs for companies, alongside a resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [4] Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley shares rose 4.1% in premarket trading and have gained 23.6% year-to-date [5]

Core Viewpoint - Price increases driven by tariffs are expected to be temporary, as indicated by Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who also supports further interest-rate cuts in response to a slowing labor market [1] Group 1 - The Philadelphia Fed President suggests that the impact of tariff-driven price increases will not be long-lasting [1] - There is a call for additional interest-rate cuts this year to address the challenges posed by a slowing labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new record, exceeding $4,100 per troy ounce, driven by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - In afternoon trading, New York futures increased by 2.9% to $4,116.20 per troy ounce, while spot gold rose by 1% to $4,016.68 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Future Price Forecasts - Bank of America has raised its gold price forecast to an average of $4,400 per ounce for 2026 [2]. - Analysts from Societe Generale predict that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year [2].