Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are in a neck-and-neck race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – with the lead changing hands on prediction markets several times this week.Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, regained the top spot on Kalshi and Polymarket on Tuesday as he pleaded his case for the job.The Fed’s “independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Federal Open Market Committee], they’re important, too,” Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday.Kevin ...

Key Takeaways Pre-markets Rebuild After Friday's SelloffEmpire State Slips to Negative, Homebuilder Confidence After the BellMarkets Look Forward to Tuesday's Jobs ReportMonday, December 15, 2025Considering we have wound down another quarterly earnings season and are officially into the holidays this year, we do have an eventful market ahead of us. Delayed jobs and inflation reports (due to the government shutdown this fall) will finally be in focus, along with normal-cycle economic reports in this last ful ...

Stocks are likely to get choppy later today when Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference starts. - MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto Investors were bracing for the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025 on Wednesday, with history showing that the S&P 500 index has tended to see a modest gain on Fed days in December. Going back to 2000, the S&P 500 SPX has gained an average of roughly 0.2% on December Fed days, with a median gain of 0.1%, according to Dow Jones Ma ...

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields exhibited mixed performance as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest-rate decision on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - Investor caution is prevalent in the market as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision approaches [1]

Group 1 - Stocks traded higher on Tuesday as Wall Street assessed a flood of earnings reports [2] - The market is looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, scheduled for Wednesday [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is critical for the stock market as it faces a significant Federal Reserve interest-rate decision alongside major technology companies reporting earnings, all amid a prolonged government shutdown [1][2]. Market Performance - U.S. stocks have experienced a record-setting rally in October, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.7%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 2.4% [2]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower policy rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, with investors closely monitoring the decision due to the lack of key economic data [3][4]. - The unusual nature of this week's Fed decision stems from uncertainty regarding both the U.S. economy's future and the economic conditions leading up to the meeting [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision may reflect a cautious stance towards growth risks, indicating a desire to mitigate potential economic slowdowns [5]. Market Reactions and Expectations - Some market analysts express skepticism about the Fed meeting's impact on markets, noting that recent economic data has not significantly changed the Fed's short-term interest rate trajectory [6]. - Any alterations in the policy statement or comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding inflation or growth could influence market expectations for future rate cuts, extending into 2026 [6].

Core Insights - The stock market is experiencing a record-setting rally that is now facing challenges due to a significant Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and a wave of earnings reports from major technology companies [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Decision - The upcoming interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve is pivotal and is expected to impact market dynamics significantly [1] Group 2: Megacap Tech Earnings - A flood of earnings reports from megacap technology companies is coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision, adding to the market's volatility [1]

Core Insights - The US stock market is experiencing a recovery from recent selloffs, primarily driven by short-sellers covering their positions, indicating a potential market squeeze [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs' basket of the most-shorted stocks has increased by 16% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which only advanced by 0.7% [2]. - The S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, achieving one of its best performance streaks since the 1950s, despite ongoing uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing trend of investors covering their short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for October 29, which may create a misleading sense of confidence in the market [3]. - Risk aversion is rising as traders are now selling upside calls to fund downside protection, reflecting a shift in sentiment as the market rallies [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon, but some analysts caution that the actual impact of such reductions may be overestimated [6]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen below the key level of 20, indicating reduced market volatility after a brief spike, suggesting a stabilization in investor sentiment [7].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 223 points, or 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The S&P 500 experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%, showing mixed performance across major indices [1] Interest Rates - The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 3.52%, reflecting market expectations regarding interest rate movements [2] - Conversely, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note decreased to 4.03%, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards longer-term securities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Markets are experiencing volatility as they await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be one of the most contentious meetings in recent history [1][2]. Market Performance - Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed a slight increase of 6 points, indicating a broadly flat performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also exhibited similar stalling behavior in premarket trading. All three indexes had closed lower in the previous session [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee is set to announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time, following a two-day meeting that has garnered significant attention for both political and economic reasons [2].