Gold was steady after gaining the most in two months on Friday, as traders weighed the implications of soft jobs data for the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path https://t.co/5UGkL4Kdgc ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed decided to preserve flexibility amidst risks of both economic downturn and inflationary pressures from tariffs and economic strength [1] - The Fed's prudent action was to avoid excessive moves that could sacrifice credibility, as reversing such errors would be difficult [4] - A prior rate cut of 50 basis points led to a 75 basis point increase in the ten-year rate, impacting mortgage rates [2] - The market will reflect substantial economic weakness in rates, reducing the urgent need for rate cuts [8] Interest Rate Debate - There is debate regarding whether to have a 25 basis point rate cut in July, or two or three rate cuts this year [4] - The industry questions the merit of cutting rates to the 1% range, deeming it a dangerous idea given the current market and economic strength [4] - Dissenters within the Fed, appointed by different individuals, may see underlying economic weakness requiring preemptive action [6][7] Economic Outlook - The economy faces risks of a downturn, but if such an error is made, it is easily correctable [1][3] - Sacrificing credibility by moving excessively would be a much more damaging and difficult to reverse error [4]

Hello everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. Inflation continues to surprise everyone and now the bears.They're all capitulating in a major way. The latest humanoid robot is going to blow your mind. It's absolutely crazy.And I'm going to share my personal thoughts on the horrific violence in New York City yesterday. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano. [Music] Ladies and gentlemen, many economists and market commentators, they predicted sky-high levels of inflation after the fury of tari ...

When you again talk to people about how to handle not just maybe necessarily student debt but overall debt in an environment like this, what's the advice. >> I always say use the rule of seven. I actually encourage folks to rank their debt from highest to lowest interest rate.And you're going to make the minimum payment across everything just to ensure that you don't, you know, fall into the default zone. But really prioritize paying down the debts that have over like 7% or over in terms of an interest rate ...

I sat down with @WClementeIII and @0xbenharvey to discuss bitcoin treasury companies, including premiums, capital sources, debt levels, and bitcoin-per-share growth.Enjoy!TIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:12 - ‘Bitcoin treasuries uncovered’ takeaways8:06 - Strategy’s bitcoin per share has grown 11x11:27 - Altcoin vs bitcoin treasure companies18:38 - Capital that is flowing into bitcoin treasure companies20:49 - How to evaluate the performance of bitcoin treasure companies24:04 - Current macro backdrop and market out ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has experienced strategic gains and challenges in 2025, showing resilience in a complex macroeconomic environment with moderate stock gains year to date [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $14.12 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.71, and up from $11.58 per share a year ago [3] - The company achieved revenues of $15.06 billion for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.02 billion, and compared to $14.21 billion in the previous year [3] - Goldman Sachs has consistently topped revenue estimates in each of the last four quarters [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The rebound in dealmaking activity has positively impacted Goldman Sachs, with increased advisory services and equity underwriting revenues due to improving corporate confidence and interest rate expectations [2] - Asset and wealth management have remained strong, with assets under supervision growing due to inflows into alternative investments [2][8] - The trading division has faced volatility, with fixed income revenues steady but equities trading struggling due to low market volumes [4] Group 3: Stress Test Performance - In the 2025 Fed stress test, Goldman Sachs was a standout performer, projected to lose only around $300 million under a severely adverse scenario, contrasting sharply with an estimated $18 billion loss in the 2024 stress test [5][8] Group 4: Market Position - Year to date, Goldman Sachs has grown 25%, outperforming its Zacks Peer Group, which advanced by 15.9% [6] - Competitors Citigroup and Wells Fargo have shown growth of 23.3% and 17.3%, respectively, both carrying a Zacks Rank of 3 [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest impact on corporate earnings and cash flows from the budget reconciliation bill, estimating a boost of around 5% for the S&P 500 in the next year [1][2]. Core Insights - The budget reconciliation bill is expected to have only a modest effect on the US fiscal balance and corporate earnings, with potential earnings boosts diminishing in subsequent years [1][2]. - The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points, with growth forecasts remaining unchanged at 0.9% for this year and a slight decline for next year [11]. - The report highlights the potential for renewed interest in European equities due to the Section 899 provision of the reconciliation bill, which may create uncertainty for US investments [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The budget reconciliation bill is projected to have limited effects on migration and economic activity, particularly for high-earning households [5]. - Fiscal policy in China is expected to support growth, with an estimated boost of 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth this year [6]. ECB Projections - The ECB's growth forecast for this year is expected to remain at 0.9%, with a slight decline in next year's forecast [11]. - Inflation projections are likely to be downgraded, with headline and core inflation expected to decline to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively for next year [11]. US Jobs Report - The report estimates a below-consensus increase of 110,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% [16]. - Average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [16]. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs - The doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is expected to negatively impact US steel demand from the manufacturing sector [16]. - There is a potential risk of tariffs being imposed on copper imports, which is currently underpriced in the market [16].

ab Global Research 27 May 2025 APAC Economic Perspectives Hong Kong: a better growth outlook Upward GDP revision We revise up our 2025 GDP growth projection to 2.2% vs. our prior projection of 1.0% and the current market consensus of 2.0%. The recent de-escalation of the US-China trade war could imply a smaller beta drag to Hong Kong's growth ahead; UBS's US economics team and China economics team have both revised up their GDP projections, following the Geneva trade talk. Hong Kong's 1Q GDP growth is stron ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, GAAP revenue was $97.7 million, net income was $29.4 million, and earnings per share (EPS) was $0.41, with a year-over-year decline in GAAP earnings primarily due to a nonrecurring loss of $1.9 million on a preferred equity investment [11][12] - The total portfolio at quarter end was $6.8 billion, with estimated unrealized capital appreciation at $8.9 billion and a ground lease-to-value (GLTV) ratio of 52% [9][15] - The portfolio currently earns a 3.7% cash yield and a 5.4% annualized yield, with an economic yield of 5.8% that can increase to 7.4% when factoring in unrealized capital appreciation [12][13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company funded a total of $20 million in Q1, consisting of $16 million in ground lease fundings and $4 million related to leasehold loans [10] - The ground lease portfolio has grown significantly, with 147 assets and an increase in multifamily ground leases from 8% at IPO to 58% today [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has nonbinding letters of intent (LOIs) totaling approximately $386 million for potential commitments across 11 ground leases and four loans, with a focus on affordable housing [8][9] - The GLTV increased from 49% to 52% quarter over quarter, reflecting the reappraisal of a significant portion of the office portfolio [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reach a scale that unlocks full value for shareholders while expanding its customer base to provide long-term lower-cost capital [5][6] - The management is actively evaluating opportunities to address the public versus private valuation disconnect, including potential asset sales or joint ventures [21][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while the market remains volatile, there are signs of stabilization, and they are optimistic about the pipeline of deals [5][19] - The company is focused on maintaining a diversified portfolio of ground leases, which is seen as an attractive investment during market fluctuations [19][20] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in liquidity, supported by joint venture capacity [9] - The weighted average debt maturity is approximately 19 years, with no corporate maturities due until 2027 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the sponsors and markets related to the LOIs? - The pipeline includes a diverse range of sponsors and markets, with a majority in multifamily, including affordable housing and market-rate construction deals [25][26] Question: What are the benefits of ground leases versus leasehold loans? - Leasehold loans provide more certainty in volatile markets and can help close transactions that may otherwise stall [27] Question: Can you quantify the closed deals from the LOIs? - The majority of the deals are expected to close this year, with timing varying based on the type of deal [32] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding potential joint ventures? - The company is considering joint ventures to unlock portfolio value and is actively seeking partners for larger transactions [50][65] Question: How does the company view the current market volatility? - Management acknowledges the ongoing volatility but sees it as an opportunity to provide certainty to customers through their capital solutions [44][75]

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 295.9 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a fixed rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 120.5 billion yuan after accounting for 175.4 billion yuan maturing on the same day [2][3]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The weighted average interest rate for major deposit institutions in the interbank market remained high, with overnight borrowing rates for credit bonds between 1.9% and 2%, and 7-day funds slightly increased to 2.3%-2.4% [3]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Yields - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with 1-year government bonds at 1.6200% (down 0.50 basis points) and 10-year government bonds at 1.8675% (down 1.75 basis points) [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Developments - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB green sovereign bonds in London, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange aims to promote long-term capital into the bond market [18].