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中国基础材料-铜金价格因降息预期走低,锂价下跌Solid copper_gold price on rates cut expectation; lithium price down
2025-09-04 15:08
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview Basic Materials - China - **Copper and Gold Prices**: LME copper price increased by 1.1% WoW to US$9,822/t, while the China price rose by 0.6% WoW to RMB79,450/t, driven by expectations of a rate cut [1][33]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum price decreased by 0.3% WoW to US$2,618/t, with the China price slightly increasing by 0.1% WoW to RMB20,730/t [1][44]. - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold spot price rose by 1% WoW to US$3,407/oz [1][52]. - **Lithium Prices**: Average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 5.1% WoW to RMB79.7k/t, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.8% WoW to RMB76.9k/t [1][56]. Steel Industry - **Steel Prices and Margins**: Rebar price decreased by 0.1% WoW to RMB3,266/t, while HRC price increased by 0.3% WoW to RMB3,466/t. Iron ore price rose by 3% WoW due to expectations of a lower Fed rate [2][64]. - **Cash Margins**: Spot rebar cash margin shrank by RMB55/t WoW to -RMB34/t, and HRC cash margin decreased by RMB28/t WoW to -RMB125/t [2][75]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: Finished steel products inventory increased by 1.9% WoW to 14.7 million tons, and apparent consumption rose by 0.6% WoW to 8.6 million tons [2][85]. Cement Industry - **Cement Prices**: Average national cement price increased by 0.35% WoW to RMB327/t, with a notable increase in Ningxia by RMB30/t [3][88]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Nationwide shipment ratio decreased by 0.6ppt WoW to 41.6%, while inventory ratio was at 60.5%, down 1.1ppt WoW [3][21]. Glass and Paper Industries - **Glass Prices**: National average float glass price decreased by 1.34% WoW to RMB1,189/t due to weak demand [3][99]. - **Paper Prices**: Paper price increased by 0.7% WoW to RMB3,481/t, supported by price hikes from paper mills [3][100]. Solar Materials - **Polysilicon Prices**: N-type polysilicon and granular silicon prices increased by RMB1/kg WoW to RMB51/kg and RMB47/kg, respectively [3][110]. - **Solar Glass Prices**: Prices for coated solar glass remained stable at RMB18.8/sqm and RMB11.0/sqm [3][122]. Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate inventory at smelters decreased by 11% to 52kt, while downstream inventory increased by 13% to 46kt, leading to a total sample lithium carbonate inventory increase of 3.6% MoM to 142kt [1][60]. - **Market Dynamics**: The steel industry is facing pressure from rising iron ore prices, while the cement market shows signs of recovery despite regional demand declines due to environmental inspections [2][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and trends across various sectors within the basic materials industry in China.