The S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Dow all declined for the week with Equities had started the session strong after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in January. This prompted traders to slightly raise the chance of a 25 basis point interest-rate cut in June to 52.3% from 48.9%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. But heavyweight technology and communications services ended the session lower as investors were jittery ahead of Monday's U.S. holiday for Presidents Day. "Larg ...

Group 1 - The latest inflation update has not significantly changed the expectations for a January interest-rate cut, with traders now estimating a 5% chance of a cut on January 28, up from 4.4% earlier in the week [1] - The likelihood of at least one quarter-point cut by March has increased slightly to 29% from 28.7% [2] - The probability of a quarter-point cut through June has risen to 47.2% from 46.2%, while the odds for a half-point cut have increased to 21.6% from 19% [2] - The chances of a three-quarters of a point cut through June have also grown to 3.4% from 2.7% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chair Jerome Powell is poised to lower interest rates again, despite voter unease, and will indicate a higher threshold for any further easing [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower interest rates reflects ongoing economic conditions and aims to support growth [1] - The potential rate cut may influence market expectations and investor behavior [1] - Powell's signaling of a higher bar for further easing suggests a cautious approach moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures showed little change as investors are anticipating an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week [1] Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a cautious recovery with S&P 500 futures rising 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increasing by approximately 0.2% [1] - The market is attempting to recover from a risk-off sentiment that led to losses for major US indexes, marking a rocky start to December, a month typically strong for equities [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin traded above $87,000, recovering from a low of $84,000, which was its worst day since March [3] - Shares of crypto-related companies like Coinbase and Robinhood also saw positive movement after significant declines [3] Economic Indicators - Investors are looking for catalysts to support a year-end rally amid ongoing concerns about inflation, market valuations, and the impact of AI spending [4] - There is an 87% probability of an interest rate cut on December 10, as markets anticipate easing measures from the central bank [5] Company Earnings and Developments - Marvell is expected to release earnings after market close, with its stock rising due to reports of advanced talks to acquire Celestial AI in a multibillion-dollar deal [6][7] - MongoDB's stock increased by 2% after reporting revenue of $628.3 million for Q3, exceeding guidance and reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase [11] - MongoDB's full-year revenue guidance was raised to between $2.434 billion and $2.439 billion, up from previous estimates [13] Investment Strategies - Bank of America recommends its wealth management clients consider a 1%-4% allocation to cryptocurrencies, with plans to cover four bitcoin ETFs starting January 5 [9][10]

Ghana’s central bank will likely deliver a third consecutive big interest-rate cut as inflation is projected to fall below the lower end of its target range by year-end https://t.co/jkblwF802e ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a rally, with consumer stocks leading the way, particularly in retail and travel sectors, as investors showed strong interest in these areas [1] - Despite disappointing economic data, there are rising hopes for another interest-rate cut, which may have contributed to the market's positive momentum [1] Sector Performance - Eight of the top twelve performing industry groups were from the retail sector, each showing an increase of more than 4%, indicating robust performance in this area [1] - Symbotic, a company in the robotics sector, exceeded fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, which may have influenced investor sentiment positively [2]

Group 1 - US stocks experienced a significant surge at the start of the Thanksgiving trading week, with the Nasdaq Composite rising nearly 2.7%, marking its largest daily increase since May [1] - The S&P 500 index advanced over 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by nearly 0.5%, indicating a broad market recovery [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in the AI-driven market rally may be nearing its end, with notable gains in stocks like Nvidia, which rose more than 1.5%, and Tesla, which gained 7% following a positive analyst call [2] Group 2 - Bitcoin showed signs of recovery, hovering above $89,000 after a recent decline to near $80,000, indicating a potential end to its month-long slump [3] - Upcoming economic data releases, including updates on producer prices, retail sales, and consumer confidence, are expected to influence market calculations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Key earnings reports from companies such as Alibaba, Kohl's, and Best Buy are anticipated as the retail season winds down [4] Group 3 - Trade discussions between US and EU officials are ongoing, with markets closely monitoring the potential impact of President Trump's tariffs and the Supreme Court's ruling on their legality [5]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is expected to open higher as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Bitcoin is experiencing downward pressure, having reached a seven-month low, influenced by broader risk aversion and uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1][2] Market Conditions - The recent selloff in Bitcoin is attributed to stalled regulatory momentum, institutional outflows, thinning liquidity, and profit-taking by long-term holders [2] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the current market conditions are testing Bitcoin's portfolio integration, raising questions about whether the decline is a temporary correction or a more extended adjustment [2]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a mostly positive trend as investors anticipated a potential interest-rate cut, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 0.5% [1] - Major indexes experienced significant losses in November, with the S&P 500 down 3.5% month-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite down over 6% [2] Economic Data - Economic data releases are gradually resuming following the longest government shutdown in US history, with key reports on producer prices and retail sales expected this week [3][14] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence reading for November is also anticipated [14] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is concluding with a relatively quiet week, featuring notable companies such as Alibaba Holdings, Dell Technologies, Kohl's, and Best Buy [4][15] - Alibaba's Qwen AI app received positive investor feedback, contributing to a rise in its stock price [16] Sector-Specific Insights - European defense stocks, including Rheinmetall AG, have seen a decline of about 24% from their early October peak due to changing market sentiment regarding the Russian conflict [6][8] - Despite the decline, there is a belief that Europe's approach to defense spending will remain altered regardless of the conflict's resolution [7] Company Highlights - Tesla's stock rose 1.8% after CEO Elon Musk announced the design of AI chips for their vehicles and data centers [9] - WeRide's stock jumped 7% following a revenue increase attributed to global fleet expansion [10] - Eli Lilly's stock fell 2% despite reaching a market capitalization of over $1 trillion for the first time [9]