The Federal Reserve won't see critical information on U.S. inflation or job creation before its next pivotal meeting in December to decide whether to cut interest rates for the third month in a row. ...

Welcome back. We have some breaking news we're following. The September jobs reports finally here, marking an end to the jobs data blackout brought on by the government shutdown.And this report shows the US economy added 119,000 jobs in September. More than 50,000 more than anticipated. The unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.4%.That's actually the highest it's been in about four years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will not release an October report, saying there was a lack of household dat ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by job creation data, with lower job additions potentially leading to rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1] - Rate cuts can have a direct impact on consumer finances, particularly through reduced interest rates on variable-rate products like credit cards and loans [2][4] Group 1: Impact of Job Reports on Interest Rates - A jobs report indicating fewer positions added than expected may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to encourage economic activity [1] - Lower interest rates can lead to increased consumer and business spending, ultimately boosting demand for labor [5] Group 2: Financial Benefits of Rate Cuts - Consumers with variable-rate debts, such as credit cards and car loans, will benefit from lower interest rates, resulting in reduced interest payments [4][5] - Fixed-rate borrowers may also find refinancing opportunities as rates decrease, allowing them to secure better terms on existing loans [6][7]

the layoffs. You see significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring or actually doing layoffs and much of the time they're talking about AI and what it can do. So, we're watching that very carefully in and you know, yes, it could absolutely have implications for job creation.We don't really see it in the claims data yet. Now, it's not a surprise that we don't. It takes some time for it to get in there. ...

Government Employment & Economic Perspective - Government should focus on core functions like infrastructure, healthcare, and education, rather than being seen as the primary solution to employment [4][13][28][32] - Over-reliance on government jobs is detrimental to the country and its youth, as the real work and innovation lie in the market [31][35] - Jobs are fundamentally created by fulfilling societal needs through the production of goods and services, not by government decree [16][17][34] - India's education system needs transformation to prioritize usable, employable skills, similar to South Korea and Germany [25][26][27][33] - A cultural shift is needed to value all productive work and focus on competence, not just job security within the government sector [33] Labor Market & Wage Disparity - Government jobs in India can absorb only about 1% of the annual influx of young people entering the job market (12 million/year), highlighting the limited capacity of the public sector [8] - In the past 8 years, only 720,000 people (7.2% of applicants) were selected for government jobs out of 220 million applicants [7] - Government wages in India are significantly higher (181 rupees for every 100 rupees in the private sector) for the same work, without corresponding outcomes [10][18] - A service delivery crisis exists in India, with the country ranking poorly on global indicators compared to other large economies [29][30][31]

All right, we got to talk to you about it. Um, shutdown just in in its ninth day. Uh, we got that data from Moody's that we always bring up.For every week of the government shutdown, quarterly GDP is impacted by a tenth of a percent. What's the impact on the manufacturing sector. Are there certain parts of it that are impacted more than others.Well, I think overall, Frank, the business community in general, but certainly manufacturing depends on certainty and uh having this kind of uncertain time where we d ...

Group 1 - The market is pricing in approximately 30 basis points of easing for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision on September 17, with a split between a base case of a quarter-point cut and a smaller chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - As of September 10, the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut, about 10% for a 50 basis point cut, and close to zero for no change, with an implied cut size of roughly 27 to 29 basis points [2] - Polymarket's prediction contract shows an 81% probability for a 25 basis point cut and a 17% probability for a 50 basis point cut, suggesting a potential easing of about 28.8 basis points [3] Group 2 - Recent labor statistics indicate that the U.S. created approximately 911,000 fewer jobs through March 2025 than previously reported, marking the largest downward adjustment since 2009 [4] - Inflation metrics show core CPI at around 3.1% year-over-year in August and core PCE at 2.9% in July, indicating uneven progress in inflation [4] - The Treasury yield curve reflects an easing path at the front end, while the long end remains influenced by term premium and fiscal dynamics [5] Group 3 - A Reuters strategist poll suggests a steeper yield curve by year-end, with the two-year yield projected at around 3.40% and the ten-year yield near 4.25%, resulting in a two-tens spread of approximately 85 basis points [6] - The nominal neutral policy rate is estimated by Cleveland Fed economists to be around 3.7%, indicating that policy would remain above neutral even after a potential quarter- to half-point cut [6] Group 4 - Upcoming economic indicators, including producer prices, consumer prices, and retail sales, are expected to influence market expectations ahead of the Fed announcement [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) reported a decrease of -0.1, which slightly increased CME projections for a 50 basis point cut to 10%, while Polymarket odds decreased to 16% [7][8] Group 5 - The market's default expectation is a 25 basis point cut, targeting a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, with forecasts suggesting two to three additional cuts in 2025 and a gradual easing path into 2026 as growth slows [9]

Supply Chain Evolution - Manufacturing supply chain evolution will determine new job creation across Europe [1] Key Deciding Factor - Supply chain evolution is not the only deciding factor [1]