former Treasury official. Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve, good morning.We've got your charts in just a moment, but first you were watching the speech last night along with us and you had a couple of more fact checks. Yeah, look, I think you guys did a great job on the factchecking things like his inability to do percentages no matter how many times we point out to him you can't have 500% declines, but whatever. But yeah, a couple other things.First on the deficit, he said that Congress had ...

Employment Data & Analysis - US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][8] - October jobs report showed a contraction of over 100,000 jobs [4] - Since April, net job creation is essentially at zero [4] Sector Performance - Leisure and hospitality added 4,000 jobs over two months [5] - Manufacturing jobs contracted by 14,000 [5] - Federal government saw a contraction of 168,000 jobs in two months due to buyouts [6] Data Reliability & Delays - October unemployment rate and demographic details are unavailable due to government shutdown [9][12][13] - The release of both October and November jobs reports were delayed [1][4][10] - Missing October data will pose challenges for year-over-year comparisons [14]

AI Regulation & Policy - The White House AI and Cryptosar highlights the necessity of a single national or federal framework for AI regulation to avoid a confusing patchwork of state regulations that could hinder innovation and compliance, especially for small startups [2][3] - The EO aims to work with Congress to enact a federal framework for AI regulation, providing principles and tools to push back on excessive state regulations, while acknowledging the need for congressional legislation [5][6] - The administration's policy on chip exports is to allow the export of lagging chips but not leading-edge chips, with the H200 chip considered a previous generation chip acceptable for sale to China [9][10] AI Competition & Economic Impact - The US is in an AI race with China, not just in weapons but also in economics, as AI is expected to power the economies of the 21st century [7] - While the US is ahead in most AI categories, it lags in optimism, with only 39% of people in the US optimistic about AI compared to 83% in China [8] - Current data indicates job creation rather than job disruption due to AI, with a construction and energy boom, wage increases of 30% for construction jobs, and AI contributing to half of the 4% GDP growth [13] Semiconductor Independence - China aims to achieve semiconductor independence, which may explain why they are currently not taking US chips [10][11]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve staff believes that federal data may be overstating job creation by as much as 60,000 jobs per month, indicating a potential contraction in the job market [1] Group 1 - The implication of the overstatement suggests that the job market might be shrinking, which could have broader economic consequences [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve will not receive critical data on U.S. inflation or job creation before its upcoming meeting in December, which is crucial for deciding on interest rate cuts for the third consecutive month [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates is impacted by the lack of timely economic data [1]

Welcome back. We have some breaking news we're following. The September jobs reports finally here, marking an end to the jobs data blackout brought on by the government shutdown.And this report shows the US economy added 119,000 jobs in September. More than 50,000 more than anticipated. The unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 4.4%.That's actually the highest it's been in about four years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will not release an October report, saying there was a lack of household dat ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are influenced by job creation data, with lower job additions potentially leading to rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [1] - Rate cuts can have a direct impact on consumer finances, particularly through reduced interest rates on variable-rate products like credit cards and loans [2][4] Group 1: Impact of Job Reports on Interest Rates - A jobs report indicating fewer positions added than expected may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to encourage economic activity [1] - Lower interest rates can lead to increased consumer and business spending, ultimately boosting demand for labor [5] Group 2: Financial Benefits of Rate Cuts - Consumers with variable-rate debts, such as credit cards and car loans, will benefit from lower interest rates, resulting in reduced interest payments [4][5] - Fixed-rate borrowers may also find refinancing opportunities as rates decrease, allowing them to secure better terms on existing loans [6][7]

the layoffs. You see significant number of companies either announcing that they are not going to be doing much hiring or actually doing layoffs and much of the time they're talking about AI and what it can do. So, we're watching that very carefully in and you know, yes, it could absolutely have implications for job creation.We don't really see it in the claims data yet. Now, it's not a surprise that we don't. It takes some time for it to get in there. ...

Government Employment & Economic Perspective - Government should focus on core functions like infrastructure, healthcare, and education, rather than being seen as the primary solution to employment [4][13][28][32] - Over-reliance on government jobs is detrimental to the country and its youth, as the real work and innovation lie in the market [31][35] - Jobs are fundamentally created by fulfilling societal needs through the production of goods and services, not by government decree [16][17][34] - India's education system needs transformation to prioritize usable, employable skills, similar to South Korea and Germany [25][26][27][33] - A cultural shift is needed to value all productive work and focus on competence, not just job security within the government sector [33] Labor Market & Wage Disparity - Government jobs in India can absorb only about 1% of the annual influx of young people entering the job market (12 million/year), highlighting the limited capacity of the public sector [8] - In the past 8 years, only 720,000 people (7.2% of applicants) were selected for government jobs out of 220 million applicants [7] - Government wages in India are significantly higher (181 rupees for every 100 rupees in the private sector) for the same work, without corresponding outcomes [10][18] - A service delivery crisis exists in India, with the country ranking poorly on global indicators compared to other large economies [29][30][31]

All right, we got to talk to you about it. Um, shutdown just in in its ninth day. Uh, we got that data from Moody's that we always bring up.For every week of the government shutdown, quarterly GDP is impacted by a tenth of a percent. What's the impact on the manufacturing sector. Are there certain parts of it that are impacted more than others.Well, I think overall, Frank, the business community in general, but certainly manufacturing depends on certainty and uh having this kind of uncertain time where we d ...