Joining us now to talk about the impact of a shutdown, Mark Zandandy, Moody's Analytics chief economist for all these reasons, Mark, you know, should are investors right to brush off the threat of a of a shutdown and what that might do economically. >> Well, Sarah, I mean, if the shutdowns a week or two and that's probably the most likely scenario, and that's probably what investors think is going to happen appropriately. So, then, you know, from a macroeconomic perspective, a market perspective, no big dea ...

Welcome back to Money Movers. Markets coming off of their record highs as questions around Fed independence intensify, excitement over AI heat up. Still with me here is Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin.Look, I' I've really been interested to ask you about just the overall feel of the market right now given it's been so much more resilient and strong than people thought it would be this year, making record high after record high. How does that feel to you. Well, I mean, if if we came into the start of thi ...

What’s going on with Powell Speech Today? As the dust settles from FOMC, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce has become the defining market catalyst of the week. Scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET, Powell’s remarks come just six days after the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 and at a moment when global markets, from U.S. Treasuries to Bitcoin prices, are searching for clarity amid widespread expectations of sustained rate cut decisions in 2025. (Source – ...

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]