Economic Growth Outlook - The economy is expected to see a slight pickup in growth, with GDP growth projected to be around 4.2% for Q3 and 4% for Q2 [25] - Job growth is anticipated to average around 80,000 for 2026, an increase from the recent average of 70,000 to 60,000 [19] AI's Impact on the Economy - AI spending currently represents about 1.5% of GDP, contributing approximately 25% to the overall GDP growth [6][7] - While AI is a significant driver of growth, it is not in bubble territory, and companies are expected to continue investing in AI [10][11] Federal Reserve Policy and Leadership - The potential nomination of Kevin Hasset as the next Fed chair may lead to a more dovish approach, but consensus among committee members will still be necessary [12][14] - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts, but challenges remain in achieving a dovish policy due to elevated inflation [15][14] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of strength, with a notable increase in construction employment and a rise in labor force participation [21][28] - The recent jobs report indicated a payroll increase of 119,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [21]

data. The delayed September jobs report is now out. The US economy added 119,000 jobs during the month.That was a lot more than expected. The unemployment rate came in at 4.4%. NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung joins us from the big board to talk more about these numbers.Brian, so this is the first jobs report reason it was delayed because of that government shutdown since it ended. The last one we got was for August numbers and that was of course back in early September like normal. walk ...

Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

Core Insights - The preliminary ADP jobs data indicates a decline in private sector job creation, with a four-week moving average down by 11,000, suggesting a weakening job market as October progressed compared to September [1][3]. Job Market Dynamics - The month-on-month change in job creation is approximately -44,000, contrasting with a previous increase of 42,000 [2][3]. - The NFIB small business optimism index fell by 0.6% to 98.2%, marking the lowest level since April, although it remains above the long-term average [4]. - Plans to increase hiring among small businesses decreased by 1 point to 15%, while plans to invest rose by 2 points [4][5]. - There is a notable increase in concerns regarding labor quality, which rose by 9 points to 27%, the highest since the pandemic, indicating difficulties in finding suitable workers [5][6]. Economic Context - The current job market is characterized as a "low fire, low hire" economy, with businesses struggling to find qualified workers despite not actively hiring [6]. - The impact of new immigration and deportation policies may be contributing to the challenges businesses face in filling positions [6]. - The upcoming government jobs report may be outdated or unreliable due to data collection issues during the shutdown, raising concerns about the accuracy of future employment statistics [9][11].

Economic Diversification in New York City - The financial industry, a key driver of New York City's economy, is experiencing attrition, with new industries not necessarily bringing in the same high-net-worth individuals [1] - Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg recognized the trend of a changing financial community and initiated efforts to diversify the economy by focusing on industries that could support job growth and income [2][3][4] - Tourism became a significant source of jobs and income, reaching approximately 60 million visitors annually before the pandemic [5][6] - The Bloomberg administration also focused on high tech, establishing Cornell Tech to attract top graduate students and foster innovation in areas like A I, leading to the creation of hundreds of new companies [7][8] Workforce and Immigration - New York City should leverage its strong universities, its attractiveness to migrants, and its diverse workforce to enhance job opportunities, particularly for middle and lower-income individuals, to address the affordability crisis [11][12][13][14] - Prior to the pandemic, immigrants accounted for 60% of the increase in the US labor force over the preceding ten years, with many holding advanced degrees [19] Market and Investment Considerations - High valuations in the equity market leave little room for error, and investors need to be cautious [22][23] - The increasing concentration of certain companies in the market enhances vulnerability if those companies underperform [22]

Core Insights - Retailers are expected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, marking the lowest number in at least 15 years [1][2] - This hiring expectation reflects a softening labor market, with a significant drop from last year's 442,000 seasonal hires [2] - Companies are managing higher costs from tariffs and have limited spending, which may have led to early hiring for sales events in October [2] Employment Trends - Layoff announcements surged to 153,074 in October, a 183% increase from September and a 175% rise from the same month last year, the highest for any October since 2003 [4] - 2025 is projected to be the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009 [4] - Conversely, ADP reported a net job growth of 42,000 in October, reversing two months of losses in the private sector [4] Economic Context - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in fewer government reports on economic data, leading companies and economists to rely on private data sources [3]

Core Insights - The US housing market is currently facing challenges, with expectations of continued cooling in housing sales due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [2][3]. Company Insights - D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the US, anticipates that the sluggish housing sales will persist into the next year, as buyers remain hesitant [2]. - The company's average sales price for single-family homes decreased by 3% year-over-year to $365,600 in the three months ending September [6]. - D.R. Horton is utilizing incentives, such as mortgage buydowns, to attract buyers, which has reduced the company's gross profit margin by 110 basis points [6]. Industry Insights - Builder confidence, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, stands at 37, indicating a lack of optimism in the short-term outlook for the housing market [2]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted the weakness in the housing sector, which is influenced by employment concerns [3]. - The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.3% in August, contributing to uncertainty in the job market and affecting consumer confidence and household formations [4][5].

Labor Market Analysis - Preliminary estimates indicate a decrease in initial jobless claims by 13,000 to 219,000, the lowest in a month [2] - Continuing claims increased by 11,000 to 1.96 million, the highest since August [3] - Alternative data suggests no surge in job losses despite the government shutdown [4] - Regional Fed surveys indicate a pickup in job growth [4] Inflation Trends - Regional Fed surveys show prices ticking down slightly, but remaining elevated [4] - An index tracking CPI shows an acceleration in prices coinciding with tariffs, but the increases have flattened out [5] Data Reliability and Future Outlook - Alternative data is considered good but not comprehensive and hasn't been fully tested [6] - The government shutdown may delay the release of key economic reports, particularly the October report for November [8] - Exploration of alternative data sources, like the Troy Leka index, is considered valuable even after the government reopens [9][10][11] - The Troy Leka index effectively tracks jobs and inflation and could potentially improve [11] - The federal government layoffs could impact jobs data [13]

Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April, indicating potential challenges in the broader markets and economic outlook [1] - There is a split in expectations regarding job growth, with some anticipating higher growth while others foresee lower growth, reflecting a mixed sentiment among consumers [3] Consumer Behavior - Real personal disposable income is declining at an annual rate of approximately 1%, yet consumer spending remains stable, likely supported by equity gains and home appreciation [4] - Consumers are currently relying heavily on the wealth effect to maintain their consumption patterns, despite underlying economic stress [4][5] - There are indications that consumers may be growing weary of spending, which could impact future consumption patterns [7] Market Sentiment - The investment community remains cautious, with widening outcomes in economic forecasts, particularly regarding the impact of AI on productivity and labor markets [9][10] - The expectation is for a slowing economy with decent nominal growth, potentially leading to a resurgence in productivity driven by AI in the coming years [11] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its quantitative tightening through the end of the year, as concerns about the balance sheet size persist among committee members [13][14] - There is ongoing debate about whether the Fed will adjust its inflation target from 2% to 3%, reflecting broader discussions on monetary policy [12]

Core Insights - Job creation in the U.S. economy is significantly slowing, with the September jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown [1][7] - Private data sources indicate a minimal increase in employment, primarily in the education and healthcare sectors, with a reported gain of 60,000 jobs in September [2][5] - The overall job market appears weak, with private estimates suggesting essentially no job growth for the month [5][7] Job Market Analysis - The September jobs report from ADP indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, with gains concentrated in large healthcare companies, while smaller firms are struggling due to tariffs and immigration policies [5][6] - Revelio Labs' data shows job growth concentrated in California, New York, and Massachusetts, but recent revisions suggest that the initial estimates may be overstated [2][5] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey indicates a decline in job availability perceptions, suggesting a potential rise in unemployment [6] Economic Implications - The absence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data complicates the assessment of economic health and policy-making [7] - Economists had anticipated a gain of 50,000 jobs in the BLS report, with an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3% [10] - Once the government shutdown concludes, the BLS will release the delayed September jobs report, although there may be a lag in publication [11]