Core Viewpoint - The oil price shock is projected to negatively impact the US economy, potentially resulting in a loss of approximately 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year, despite expected job gains in the energy sector [2][3]. Economic Impact - Higher oil prices are anticipated to lead to increased unemployment and slower job growth, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.6% by the end of Q3 [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.4% in February, coinciding with a loss of 92,000 jobs [3]. Sector-Specific Effects - The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to experience the most significant hiring slowdown, potentially losing around 5,000 jobs per month through Q4 [6]. - Other sectors likely to be affected include retail trade, manufacturing, and education and health services [6]. Consumer Behavior and Inflation - Higher oil prices may lead to increased prices of other goods, contributing to inflation and causing consumers to reduce spending in various areas, which could further hinder economic growth and hiring [5]. Labor Market Trends - The labor market has been cooling, with hiring slowing for most of the past year and job cuts increasing. The US added 181,000 jobs last year, a significant decrease from the 1.4 million jobs added the previous year [7].

It's a complicated issue, and we do complicated issues on is show. Joining me now is a guest with 25 years of experience in housing policy. Jenny Schutz is the vice president of Infrastructure for Housing at Arnold Ventures, where she oversees efforts to identify and enact policies that can successfully expand housing supply and make it easier to build more and different types of housing.She also served as the principal economist for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She's the author of ...

Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing anecdotal insights into economic conditions across the country [1] - Economists will analyze upcoming reports on jobs, retail sales, and surveys on manufacturing and services for business sentiment [1] Labor Market - A projected drop of 30,000 jobs in February reflects a slowdown from January's strong performance, attributed to weather impacts rather than a decline in hiring conditions [2] - Economists forecast a modest increase in retail receipts, with fuel prices recently falling to a five-year low before rebounding [2] - The job market's prolonged weakness may test consumer resilience, with January retail sales data expected to be inconclusive due to severe winter weather [3] Payroll Growth - Economists project an addition of 60,000 jobs for February, significantly lower than earlier in the year, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3% [5] - Payroll growth is anticipated to return to a more sustainable pace after a strong hiring month [5] Global Economic Insights - In Canada, the Bank of Canada will discuss economic stability risks and potential adaptations to monetary policy [5] - Various inflation metrics and activity indexes from different regions, including the euro zone and Asia, will be closely monitored [6][9][15] Inflation and Central Bank Actions - Inflation in the euro area is expected to show annual growth of 1.7% in February, matching the previous reading [15] - The Reserve Bank of Australia may consider a rate hike following inflation data that remains above target [8] - South Korea's consumer inflation is projected to rise to 2.2%, while Indonesia's inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.34% [12] Regional Economic Data - South Korea's export data indicates an acceleration in February, supporting the central bank's neutral policy stance [7] - Japan's corporate profit report will provide insights into wage growth and capital expenditure following low GDP growth [11] - Chile's GDP-proxy data is expected to reflect strong domestic demand and high copper prices [23] Employment and Economic Growth - Brazil's national unemployment rate reached a record low of 5.1% in December, with industrial production data forthcoming [25] - Colombia's inflation is anticipated to rise due to a recent minimum wage hike, impacting economic expectations [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may not be cut as anticipated, with discussions suggesting potential increases if inflation remains above the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in January, marking the first pause since July 2025 after three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points [4][5]. - Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation persists, indicating a shift in focus towards managing inflation rather than solely supporting job growth [1][2]. Group 2: Market Implications - A delayed rate cut could lead to prolonged higher borrowing costs for consumers, affecting loans and credit [5]. - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing inflation and job growth, which can often conflict and be influenced by unpredictable global events [7][8]. Group 3: Expert Opinions - Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab noted the risk of rising inflation and adjusted the forecast for a second rate cut to later in 2026 [3][2]. - Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller expressed dissent regarding the January pause, advocating for a 25-basis-point cut due to labor market softening [5].

Entry-level new graduates, career switchers and those with certificates or associate degrees are having difficulty finding jobs. To help with this problem, Resume Now analysts reviewed Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*NET data. To qualify, each of the 12 entry-level careers had to hit four marks at once: education, salary, job growth and AI risk.Read more: https://t.co/LJdRCgKkaj ...

Market Overview - Asian markets reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which dampened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and negatively impacted U.S. stocks [1] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index reached 58,000 for the first time, driven by renewed confidence in domestic politics and the ruling administration's economic agenda [1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures were lower at 27,206 compared to the last close of 27,266.38 [1] U.S. Market Performance - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.42% in early trading [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a three-day winning streak, dropping 66.74 points (0.13%) to close at 50,121.40 [2] - The S&P 500 index remained nearly flat at 6,941.47, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% to 23,066.47 [2] Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job growth of 130,000 in January, significantly higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000 [3] - December's job growth was revised down to 48,000, indicating a stronger labor market that has reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Consumer Spending - A separate report indicated that consumer spending in December was flat, missing the expected 0.4% monthly gain [4]

Group 1 - The recent government shutdown delayed the release of key jobs data, which was originally scheduled for last Friday [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics had just resumed its regular data release schedule after a 43-day shutdown, which previously halted all federal data collection [2] - The lack of government data has led to increased attention on third-party reports, such as Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which reported that companies cut 108,000 jobs in January, the highest for any January since 2009 [3] Group 2 - U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December, which was below the revised figure of 56,000 jobs added in November and below the expected 73,000 jobs [3][4] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in December from a revised 4.5% in November, marking the first decline since June [4] - Federal Reserve officials are concerned about a potential surge in unemployment, noting that job openings in December were at their lowest since 2020 [5][6] Group 3 - Economists view job openings as a leading indicator of future job growth, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's mandate to maintain high employment and control inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve has been divided on whether to cut interest rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, with rates held flat at the January meeting [7] - Analysts from Bank of America Global Research referred to the upcoming jobs report as the "Super Bowl of jobs reports" due to the significant attention it is receiving [8] Group 4 - Forecasters predict that U.S. employers likely added 55,000 jobs in the last month, with job gains expected to be concentrated in health care, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4% [9] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary monthly, estimating job additions, average hours worked, and average hourly earnings [11] - The government's jobs report is considered the gold standard for measuring labor market health and the broader U.S. economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The US Labour Department is expected to release employment data that will indicate whether job growth in 2026 is gaining momentum after a year of the weakest hiring pace outside of a recession in over two decades [1] Employment Data Insights - The upcoming employment data is closely watched and will provide the first indication of job growth trends for 2026 [1] - The previous year experienced the weakest hiring pace in more than twenty years, excluding recession periods [1]

Let's bring in Michael Canterowitz, chief investment strategist for Piper Sandler. I mean, we're we're climbing these these worry spots around overinvestment in AI and around software disruption in AI and around weaker job growth. Michael, how h how does the risk reward look to you from here.>> Yeah, we're we're still constructive on equities. I think why we're climbing these worries, you know, that the macro data and the breadth of earnings data are the ladder that is helping us climb a lot of these concer ...

The statement said economic activity remains solid, while job growth has been weak and inflation remains somewhat elevated; two FOMC members, Miran and Waller, dissented and favored a 25-basis-point rate cut at this meeting. ...