The government shutdown is now 31 days old and there has been very little economic data coming from the government during that period. But there are some alternative sources that are providing labor and inflation statistics. For that we get to our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman.He's been searching for data high and low and he's come up with some pretty interesting things. Good morning Steve. >> Hey, good morning Becca.Yeah, we're able to put together a preliminary estimate of jobless claims. I'll ex ...

Core Insights - The most accurate tool for tracking job losses has been postponed for the second consecutive week, indicating potential delays in labor market data [1] - Despite economic uncertainties, layoffs remain surprisingly low, suggesting resilience in the job market [1] Summary by Categories Job Market Trends - Layoffs are currently at low levels, which is unexpected given the prevailing economic uncertainties [1] Data Reporting - The postponement of the job loss tracking tool for two weeks may affect the timeliness of labor market insights [1]

Labor Market - Initial jobless claims surprisingly low at 218,000, the lowest since the third week of July [1] - The market expected initial jobless claims around 234,000 [1] - Continuing claims also on the light side, at 1.926 million [1] Interest Rate Implications - The unexpectedly low jobless claims are likely to put upward pressure on interest rates [1]

Economic Data Summary - Q2 GDP was revised up from +3.3% to +3.8%, marking the strongest quarter of growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Consumption saw a significant increase from +1.6% to +2.5%, indicating a stronger appetite among U.S. consumers [3] - The Price Index increased by 10 basis points, with headline at +2.1% and core at +2.6% [3] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K, down 17K from estimates and 14K from the previous week, reaching the lowest level since mid-summer [4] - Continuing Claims rose slightly to 1.926 million, remaining below 1.94 million for the third consecutive week [5] Durable Goods Orders - August Durable Goods Orders increased by +2.9%, significantly better than the prior month's -2.7% and the consensus estimate of -0.5% [6] - Excluding Transportation orders, the increase was +0.4%, down from +1.0% in the previous month [6] Trade and Inventory Data - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for August improved to -$85.5 billion from -$102.8 billion [7] - Advanced Retail Inventories remained unchanged at +0.2%, while Advanced Wholesale Inventories decreased to -0.2% [7] Company Performance Expectations - Costco is expected to report fiscal Q4 results with a projected earnings growth of +12.8% year over year and revenue growth of +8.1% [10] - Costco has outperformed earnings expectations in three of its past four quarters [10]

We've got one day after the Fed cuts rates and signaled more cuts ahead at least through the end of this year. We've got stocks jumping to record highs, bond yields moving up as well. So here to explain all of this, Alon's chief economic adviser and former Pinco CEO, Muhammad Alarian.Muhammad, it's great to have you back on the show. Welcome. >> Thanks for having me, Morgan.>> Man, talk about volatility in the in the Treasury market here. I mean, you had a 10-year yield that broke below 4% at one point yest ...

Kevin Hanks, co-host Fast Market Live at the CBOE is with us to talk about what what we're watching this morning. We have up arrows this morning, day after the Fed. Some of your thoughts.>> Good morning, Nicole. Yes, markets green across the board. Not as high they as they were about a half hour to 45 minutes ago, but still solid numbers.You've got the E- Minis up a half percent, you've got the NASDAQ up 9/10en of a percent. And so numbers looking good to start the day. The data that we got this morning, jo ...

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data came in at 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, marking the smallest number of initial claims since the third week of August [1] - Last week's claims were revised upward to 264,000, which was unexpected and attributed to an error in Texas, leading to a reassessment of the labor market [2] - Continuing claims decreased to 1,920,000, down from a revised figure of 1,927,000, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market [3] Group 2 - The Philadelphia Fed business outlook for September showed a strong reading of 23.2%, the best level since January and the second-best number of the year [4] - The increase in jobless claims and the strong business outlook suggest mixed signals in the economy, with rates moving higher [4]

Core Insights - Newly unemployed workers are experiencing higher inflation rates without an increase in jobless benefits to compensate for the rising costs [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by elevated inflation levels impacting the purchasing power of unemployed individuals [1] - Jobless benefits have not been adjusted to reflect the increased cost of living, leading to financial strain on newly unemployed workers [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or sector discussed Core Insights - The labor market shows low layoffs but a potential weakening in hiring rates, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 233,000 for the week ending June 21 from 237,000 the previous week, indicating stability in the labor market [1] - Continuing claims remain at a cycle-high of 1.964 million, suggesting an upward trend in unemployment, contrary to the reported decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in May [2] - The four-week average of continuing claims has risen to 1.954 million, indicating persistent unemployment risks despite a drop in the unemployment rate [2] Summary by Sections Jobless Claims Overview - Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending June 21, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [1] - Continuing claims held steady at 1.964 million, marking a cycle-high, with the four-week moving average climbing to 1.954 million [2][9] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, but participation rates also declined, indicating potential risks for future employment stability [2] - The labor market differential from the Conference Board consumer confidence survey has been deteriorating, suggesting a weakening outlook [2]