Core Insights - The Dencun Upgrade significantly reduces L2 data storage costs through proposals like EIP-4844, leading the industry into a phase characterized by "performance surplus but uneven ecology" [1] Transaction Landscape - The top chains dominate over 60% of transaction volume, with a notable "80/20" distribution emerging post-upgrade. Base and Arbitrum are the clear winners, with Base achieving over 3 million daily transactions, a more than threefold increase, and TPS rising from single digits to over 35 [1] - Arbitrum also sees daily transactions exceeding 2 million, with both chains collectively accounting for over 60% of total L2 transaction volume, creating a "duopoly" [1] - In contrast, smaller L2 projects like zkSync and Manta experience significant declines in transaction volume, with some reverting to pre-upgrade levels, indicating a "growth without revenue" dilemma for these projects [1] Technical Route - The performance and cost differentiation among L2 projects intensifies post-upgrade, with Optimistic Rollups (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism) benefiting the most. Arbitrum's fees drop from $0.62 to $0.01, a 97.01% decrease, while Optimism's fees also fall by over 90% [2] - ZK Rollups (e.g., Linea, Scroll, Polygon zkEVM) see fee reductions of less than 50%, remaining above $0.5, leading to a noticeable user attrition due to cost disadvantages [2] - The disparity reflects the trade-offs in technology, where ZK Rollups, despite their advantages in finality, fail to reduce costs effectively compared to Optimistic Rollups in the short term [2] Ecological Vitality - The core issue of L2 ecological differentiation lies in the "infrastructure upgrade outpacing application innovation." While the Dencun Upgrade addresses performance and cost, L2 applications remain primarily focused on DeFi migration, lacking native innovative scenarios [2] - The transaction growth in leading chains is mainly driven by traditional DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Aave, rather than new scenarios or user influx [2] - Smaller L2 projects struggle with low ecological activity due to the absence of leading applications, resulting in a lack of high-frequency interaction scenarios [2] Liquidity Distribution - Post-upgrade, the amount of ETH transferred from the Ethereum mainnet to L2 shows a declining trend, with even strong performers like Base experiencing a decrease in transfer volume [4] - The insufficient liquidity supply from the mainnet leads top chains to consolidate existing liquidity through cross-chain bridges, with Base and Arbitrum's DeFi TVL accounting for over 70% of total L2 TVL [4] - This "liquidity Matthew effect" further entrenches the differentiation, as top chains attract more applications and users, while smaller chains fall into a vicious cycle of "liquidity shortage - application loss - user reduction" [4]