Economic Data & Market Uncertainty - The market is navigating uncertainty due to lack of data, making it difficult to assess fixed income and yield movements during government shutdowns [1] - Corporate data is considered a reliable source, while survey data is viewed as potentially skewed by sentiment [1] - Access to payroll data is crucial for accurate economic assessment [2] - The market places significant emphasis on CPI reports, even though minor percentage variations may not be fundamentally impactful [5] - Core CPI is expected to remain around 3% [4] Labor Market & Productivity - Labor market data is considered the most critical information for the next five years [7] - Productivity, innovation, and technology are expected to alleviate wage pressure and subsequently reduce inflation [7] - Companies are achieving substantial earnings reports without needing proportional infrastructure investment [8] - Productivity gains are occurring through inventory management, logistics, and efficient business operations [8][9] - Maintaining full employment is a primary focus [10] Corporate Strategy & Economic Growth - Companies are pursuing scale to enhance margins and lower infrastructure costs [9] - The economy is experiencing real GDP growth of 38% and is projected to exceed 5% nominal GDP for the year [8]

Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The current market operates in a data-scarce environment, making it challenging to gauge fixed income and yield movements during the government shutdown [1] - Corporate data is deemed more reliable than survey data, which often reflects market sentiment rather than actual conditions [2][3] Labor Market and Productivity - Labor data is identified as the most critical information for the next five years, with expectations that productivity and technological advancements will alleviate wage pressures and inflation [7] - The economy is projected to achieve a real GDP growth of 3.8% and nominal GDP growth exceeding 5%, indicating strong corporate earnings without a proportional increase in infrastructure needs [8] Business Efficiency and Scale - Companies are focusing on improving productivity through better inventory management and logistics, which is essential for maintaining higher margins and lower infrastructure costs [9] - There is a trend towards achieving scale in operations, which allows companies to run more efficiently while also supporting employment levels [9][10]

It certainly looks like they're going to do the 25 unless they want to surprise the market. And if they feel the market needs to be surprised, they could do 50. But there's no indication that we need the surprise tone just fine.The rate decisions are the least interesting of everything on Wednesday. There are three other things to look for. The first is the post-meeting statement.How many dissenters are there. How many members actually wanted a 50 basis point rate cut. And are there any dissenters that didn ...

I want to start with you on CPI today, the big day for data. First, are you buying these numbers because these are from BLS. Yes, I'm buying the numbers and I want to amplify a little bit.Would Romain said this wasn't a bad report or just an okay report is a very good report. Let me explain the quirk. The CPI came in at 2.7%, which seems significantly above target.But in fact, the Federal Reserve uses another gauge called the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. We love the piece. That one runs to 2.2%, ...