Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.Thanks for having me, Scott. Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." Yeah, that's righ ...

Welcome back to Money Movers. Markets coming off of their record highs as questions around Fed independence intensify, excitement over AI heat up. Still with me here is Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin.Look, I' I've really been interested to ask you about just the overall feel of the market right now given it's been so much more resilient and strong than people thought it would be this year, making record high after record high. How does that feel to you. Well, I mean, if if we came into the start of thi ...

ToplineThe U.S. economy grew at a rate much higher than originally reported in the second quarter as consumer spending rose, according to revised data released Thursday by the Commerce Department, bringing surprise to economists. One economist noted a revision to economic growth—nearly 1% above initial reports—was “outside the norm.”Getty ImagesKey FactsReal gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, up from an earlier revision of 3.3% and initial reports of 3% growth, ...

On this episode of Market Sense, we’re discussing the Fed’s first interest rate cut of the year—what it means, why it matters, and how it could affect stocks and bonds. Plus, we're watching the latest efforts in Washington to avoid a government shutdown. Topics covered: • Federal Reserve • Rate cut • Labor market • Inflation 00:00 Market Sense Introduction 01:25 Latest market news 03:16 Potential government shutdown 05:31 What is the Fed’s focus right now? 07:10 Dot plot and plans for more cuts 08:44 The Fe ...

In the labor market, there has been a marked slowdown in both the supply of and the demand for workers, an unusual and challenging development. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% in August, but has remained relatively stable at a low level over the past year.Payroll job gains slowed sharply over summer months as employers added an average of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. The recent pac ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the first time in months due to a weakening labor market, despite ongoing inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's policymaking panel voted 11-1 to lower interest rates by a quarter-point, changing the range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25% [2][3]. - Investors are anticipating a 91.9% probability that the Fed will further reduce rates by at least a quarter-point to between 3.75% and 4% on October 29 [5]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a "marked slowdown" in both supply and demand, with unemployment rising to 4.3% in August, which was higher than expected [3][6]. - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns that the labor market could enter a "precarious phase," indicating potential for sudden deterioration [3]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - Powell noted that "near-term risks" to inflation are "tilted to the upside," while uncertainty around inflation remains high [2][3]. - Wall Street anticipates annual inflation to reach 3% in August, a slight increase from July, with headline PCE inflation expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.6% [4]. Group 4: Political Context - The Federal Reserve has faced criticism from President Trump, who has urged for more aggressive rate cuts [6]. - The Fed has planned for up to two additional 25-basis-point reductions by the end of the year, aiming to stabilize inflation around 2% while maintaining full employment [6].

Economic Outlook - The Chicago Federal Reserve President expressed caution regarding further interest rate cuts as the U.S. economy faces slower growth and a weaker labor market [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first easing of the year [2][3] Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for over four and a half years, prompting a careful approach to aggressive rate cuts [2][4] - The FOMC's projections suggest a neutral funds rate around 3.1%, indicating potential for further cuts in the benchmark rate [3][4] Labor Market Insights - Recent trends show a significant softening in hiring, although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3% historically [4] - The Chicago Fed introduced a labor market monitor that forecasts the unemployment rate and includes real-time labor statistics, indicating stability in the labor market [5][6]

Right, let's talk more about the market setup this morning with Rebecca Patterson joins us here at Post9. Of course, it's great to have you, Rebecca. Welcome.>> Thank you. >> Um, the desk notes today are pretty constructive, although one of them I think it's RBC looks at earnings revisions S&P X top 10 >> and that there is where you're starting to see a little bit of a stumble right to our points about economic pressure. >> Yeah, I mean we do have a tale of two economies.the the tech sector broadly defined ...

Core Viewpoint - The fixed income market is expected to provide better returns moving forward, with higher yields likely to persist due to recent Federal Reserve actions and shifts in investor demand [3][4][5]. Group 1: Fixed Income Market Outlook - The current environment suggests that higher yields are here to stay, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts and expectations for further reductions [3][6]. - There is a shift in demand for risk-free assets from central banks and foreign investors to more price-sensitive investors like asset managers and hedge funds, which may lead to elevated long-term yields [3][4]. - The fixed income component of a balanced portfolio may become increasingly attractive as the stock market appears overvalued [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The pace of private payroll growth has slowed, and unemployment rates have ticked up, indicating potential for better growth and higher inflation in the future [6][7]. - The current labor market situation is unusual, with private employment demand running under a 1% annualized rate for most of the year, which is unprecedented in modern history [7][8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points on September 17, marking the first rate cut in 2025, with an expectation of an additional 50-basis-point cut this year [1] - The rate cut occurred despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation projection for 2025 maintained at 3.1% and the 2026 forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [2] - The Fed raised its growth forecast, expecting the U.S. economy to expand by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, both 20 basis points higher than previous forecasts [4] Group 2: Impact on Industries - Rate cuts are generally positive for interest-sensitive sectors such as automotive and housing, as lower interest rates can boost demand; however, the housing market is currently facing challenges [6] - Consumer discretionary companies, retailers, and e-commerce firms like Amazon (AMZN) are expected to benefit from rate cuts, as they can stimulate consumer spending [7] - Companies with significant debt burdens will see reduced interest expenses, enhancing profitability, while buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) companies like Affirm (AFRM) will also benefit from lower borrowing costs [7]