And with that, off to Mike McKee. He's at the Fed in D. C.Mike. Well, no surprise, the Iran war and tariffs are central to the discussion among Fed officials at their March meeting. The full effect of tariffs had not yet moved through the economy, officials said.A resilient economy, they called it. And the war, then only a few weeks old, raised the threat of inflation increasing and hiring slowing. Some participants judged there was a strong case for a two sided description of the committee's future interes ...

Well, we're getting some fresh comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Steve Leeman has the details. Hi, Steve.>> Hey, Mike. Yeah, [music] he's talking about the conflict in the Middle East, saying he sees substantial risk and high uncertainty in the economic outlook from especially those events. He says the Middle East conflict could result in a large supply shock, and you guys were just talking about this, raising inflation on the one hand and dampening economic activity on the other, putting ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's traditional approach to oil price shocks suggests that while immediate price increases occur, the long-term impact on inflation is uncertain and typically lags behind monetary policy adjustments [2][10]. Inflation Outlook - Rising oil prices are expected to boost the price level immediately, but the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will not affect inflation for 12 to 18 months [2][10]. - There is currently no evidence of a wage-price spiral or rising inflation expectations that would indicate a long-term inflation issue stemming from oil price shocks [4][5][9]. Market Reactions - The market has reacted to the ongoing war, leading to increased volatility and a shift in expectations regarding interest rate hikes [11][12]. - Higher oil and gas prices are expected to reduce consumer spending on other products, potentially leading to lower overall aggregate demand [14]. Labor Market Concerns - The labor market has been on a gradual cooling trend for three years, and there are concerns that higher oil prices could exacerbate this trend, leading to weaker growth and higher unemployment [13][15]. - The Federal Reserve's current stance appears to prioritize inflation risks, while some analysts express greater concern over labor market stability [16][17]. Monetary Policy Recommendations - There is a suggestion that the Federal Reserve could consider easing monetary policy by approximately 100 basis points over the course of a year, with a preference for 25 basis point cuts in upcoming meetings [18].

Donald Trump told the FT: ‘Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options.’Photograph: Nathan Howard/Getty Images · Photograph: Nathan Howard/Getty Images The price of oil hit nearly $117 (£89) a barrel on Monday as Donald Trump threatened to “blow up” and “completely obliterate” Iranian electricity plants, oilwells and its export hub Kharg Island if it did not agree to a deal. Brent crude rose after the US president wrote on his social media platform Truth Social that if a deal was ...

Market Performance - US stocks ended the week in decline, with the S&P 500 losing approximately 1.7% and marking its longest losing streak since 2022, while the Dow also fell by 1.7%, equating to around 800 points [1] - Year-to-date losses for the S&P 500 and Dow are 7% and 6%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a steeper decline of 2.2% on Friday, resulting in a year-to-date loss of roughly 10% [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to be a focal point for investors, particularly regarding the normalization of payroll numbers after significant fluctuations in January and February [2] - Additional insights into market sentiment will be provided by the Conference Board, along with labor market data from the JOLTS report and Challenger, Gray & Christmas [3] Corporate Earnings - Quarterly results from NIKE are set to be released on Tuesday, leading a relatively quiet week for earnings reports [3] - Results from USA Rare Earth and Trilogy Metals, key players in the critical minerals sector, are expected on Monday and Friday, respectively [4] Oil Market Dynamics - The ongoing conflict in the Gulf region has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting oil supply by approximately 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, resulting in significant price increases for Brent crude and US WTI crude, which have risen over 45% and 50% in the past month [5] - BP's chief economist highlighted the unprecedented nature of the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating it as a critical concern for analysts [6] - The duration of Iran's oil supply disruption and the global response are now seen as pivotal factors in the market [7]

Market Overview - US equities ended the week in the red, with all three major indexes now showing year-to-date losses of over 5% [1] - The Dow lost about 1.0% (approximately 450 points), the S&P 500 fell by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 2%, resulting in a total loss of roughly 7% since January 1 [1] Economic Indicators - Attention is focused on inflation and labor market indicators following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell [2] - Key readings on inflation expectations from the University of Michigan and industrial economy data from S&P Global and the Kansas City Federal Reserve are anticipated [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices remain above $100, with Brent trading around $107 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude at approximately $98.30, both up about 3% for the week [4] - The ongoing conflict in Iran has significantly impacted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about energy supply stability [4][5] - QatarEnergy's CEO indicated that repairs to the Ras Laffan LNG terminal could take years, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure [6]

Core Insights - Target is facing significant challenges despite being operational, with recent quarterly earnings showing a 2.5% decline in comparable sales and a 1.5% drop in overall revenue year over year [2] - The company is responding to consumer financial pressures by lowering prices on over 3,000 items across key categories to provide relief from high costs [5] - Target's CEO emphasized the need for improved customer experience, aiming to create an emotional connection and make shopping enjoyable rather than a chore [6] Financial Performance - Comparable sales fell by 2.5% and overall revenue decreased by 1.5% year over year, indicating a struggle to maintain sales amidst broader consumer spending cuts [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer confidence has sharply declined, influenced by high inflation, tariffs, and a questionable labor market, leading to reduced discretionary spending [4] - The ongoing financial pressures on consumers are affecting retailers across the board, with Target facing unique challenges [2] Strategic Initiatives - Target is implementing deep discounts as part of a strategy to attract customers, focusing on essential and trending products [5] - The company aims to enhance its reputation and customer experience by addressing issues such as disorganized aisles and employee dissatisfaction [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates steady amid rising energy prices and geopolitical turmoil, reflecting concerns over inflation and a weakened job market [1][2][3]. Economic Conditions - The Fed's decision comes in light of soaring oil and gas prices, fluctuating inflation above the target of 2%, and a job market that unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs last month [1][2]. - Inflation rates have shown volatility, swinging from 2.3% in April to 3% in September, then back down to 2.4% at the start of the year [6]. Federal Reserve's Stance - All but one of the 12 voting members of the Fed committee voted to keep rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, resisting pressure from political figures to lower borrowing costs [2]. - The Fed acknowledged elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and the implications of Middle Eastern developments on the US economy [2]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel and Iran has forced central banks globally to consider the impact of rising gas prices on the supply chain [3]. - An energy shock poses challenges for central bankers, creating tension between a shaky labor market and rising inflation [4]. Political Dynamics - Former President Trump has expressed that rising oil prices are a minor cost for achieving his goals in Iran, benefiting American oil producers [5]. - Trump has criticized the Fed's leadership, particularly Jerome Powell, for not lowering interest rates, which he believes would stimulate the economy [7]. Future Considerations - Powell's term as Fed chair is set to end in May, and it remains uncertain whether he will continue on the Fed board until January 2028 [10]. - The Supreme Court is expected to rule on Trump's firing of a Fed governor, which could impact the administration's influence over the Fed [9].

逃离币圈的高素质年轻人们：高薪伪装下的 “次要劳动力市场”今天跟一个 Crypto 卡牌项目的员工聊，发现几周前他居然已经离职加入 AI 行业了。身边有不少相似的现象，这也是我最近观察到的一个很明显的趋势：不仅仅是那个 Multicoin 联创离开了，众多高素质、顶尖背景的同龄人才正在快速从 Crypto 行业流失我并不认为这能简单归结为 “币价跌了”、“熊市难熬”，比起周期，我从我的视角来看，真正逼退这些聪明的同龄人的，是这个行业在职业生涯规划上极其致命的结构性缺陷，上升通道的彻底锁死哪怕他们熬过了币圈的裁员，也不会留在币圈的原因可以用一句话概括：炒币自由不了，那日子总还要过吧两个问题引出第三个问题：1. 币圈的流动性来源于哪里？二级市场2. 二级市场发生在哪里？交易所3. 行业需要优质的年轻的人才加入吗？第三个问题，应该无需长篇大论论证。至少仅仅从 GitHub 数据来看，自 2025 年初以来，加密项目周度代码提交量约从 85 万降至 21 万，活跃开发者降至约 4600 人所以可以很明显发现，在现阶段的币圈，除了头部交易所，几乎不存在真正意义上的职场阶梯。但即便是把青春奉献给交易所，能熬过 2-3 年 ...

Now, let's bring in our panel. Invesco's Brian Levit, Bartlett's Holly Makosza, Mazoko, sorry. Uh, guys, welcome.Brian, I think you've tended to say that peak uncertainty is a really good time to buy. Uh, but policy uncertainty with what we see happening now in Iran, uh, besides everything else with the disruptions around software, are we at one of those moments. Can we buy.>> Hard to say if we're exactly at peak on certainty, although I I suspect we will get there. um within a a shorter time horizon than s ...