Recurring applications for unemployment benefits surged to the highest since November 2021, adding to recent signs that the labor market is weakening https://t.co/c4lQD2mdEE ...

Is confidence actually increasing right now. >> Well, confidence increased off of a a dramatic drop in our last survey, but I would say it's still in the caution zone. You know, it the reading was 49.Anything below a 50 on this index is negative. So, I'd say confidence bounced back, but I would say it's still very much a caution zone for CEOs right now. Roger, what exactly has been the driver or what has been the I guess biggest influence on that confidence number, the confidence read that we are seeing.>> ...

Shep. We also seem to get confirmation of something that the treasury secretary has pretty much signaled he doesn't want the job at the fed. He likes where he is.Yes, he does. And the president made very clear that he had four candidates. He talked about the two Kevins.Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as being contenders. But he made clear that Scott Bessant really wanted to stay in his role as treasury secretary. He was he was enjoying the job.And he made clear that, look, Scott Besson's name can come off the ...

Let's start perhaps with the data side of things. Is there going to be a market fallout. It doesn't appear as though right now, but there is going to be a ripple effect and can we trust the data going forward.So, I think the next few days after you're seeing a considerable degree of surprise on Friday, you you very likely will see some market reaction. You're not going to solve this overnight because this is a revision off of several months of data. and the markets were caught by surprise in an environment ...

Well, someone else is going to be uh handling that one way or another, it seems. Neil Dada, what what do you make of what we got in the data today. The best data that we have at the moment anyway, and what investors should really take away from it about the state of this economy and the market.Well, I think for the Fed, it feels a little bit like deja vu all over again because this is kind of where we were around the same time last year. um you know things sort of uh seem okay and then you kind of get punch ...

Uh for more, let's bring in Muhammad Alian, Alon's chief economic adviser. And let's just start there, Muhammad, with your reaction to to this move and just the general uh your general take on the integrity of US economic data and what it means for markets. So Mike, we've long known that we have problems with certain data.It's methodology is fewer people are responding and as Aean just said you estimate quite a few things and then as you get the data you go back and revise it. So these issues have been ther ...

News just out from the Fed is on the Fed governors who dissented at this week's meeting. Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got more on that front.Hi, Steve. Hey. Uh, governors Waller and Bowman continuing that tradition of explaining their descents on the Friday after the meeting.And, uh, they're both saying why they, uh, wanted or preferred a quarter point rate cut. Waller saying that tariffs are one-off price increases and do not cause inflation. Echoing uh, speeches he gave before the meeting.He said ...

We have made no decisions about September. There's a lot of lean in the markets uh and not to mention uh out of the administration for a rate cut now in September. Uh is that uh expectation unrealistic at this point.So as you know today we decided to leave our policy rate where it's been which where I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2% as I mentioned even excluding tariff effects. The labor market's solid, historically low unemployment, financial conditions are a ...

Economic Activity & Demand - Final sales to private domestic purchasers slowed to a 12% gain in Q2 from 19% in Q1, suggesting softening underlying demand [1] - First half profit domestic final purchases were 16%, while GDP was 12% for the same period [3] - GDP is considered bumpy quarter to quarter and often gets revised [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 41% [4] - Wages are at a healthy level, moving closer to long-run sustainable levels consistent with productivity and 2% inflation [4] - The labor market is still quite solid [4] Inflation - Headline inflation was 21% and core inflation was 25% [2] - Inflation is above target, even ignoring tariffs [5] Monetary Policy - The speaker is trying to do the right thing in a challenging situation, being pulled in two directions [5] - At some point, if risks are equally balanced, a neutral policy stance would be desirable, which is not the case currently [6] - The speaker is not committing to a rate cut in September and will need to see more data on inflation and employment [2][6] - Judgments will be based on all data and a balance of risks analysis [6]

Hi, Chair Pal. Thank you. Uh well, can you give us a little more about what kind of economic data does the Fed need to see before uh you'll be ready to cut.I mean, do you need inflation back nearly to target. Uh are there other things in the pricing that you look for. Do you need to see weakening in the job market.What kind of things are you are you looking for. I mean, ultimately, it's it could be any could be any of those things, right. But but you know if you saw that the risks to the two goals were movi ...