Markets are currently pricing in a Goldilocks scenario. Investors believe tariffs will not compress corporate margins, inflation is contained, labor markets will soften just enough to allow rate cuts without triggering a recession, and AI will drive an acceleration in productivity. As the Reddit crowd would say, "stonks to the moon.†Content continues below advertisement We think that perfect outcome is a low-probability scenario and that the market is too optimistic that earnings growth will remain strong ...

The numbers today were significant and I agree with you that the revisions downward in the previous two months were perhaps the bigger story. Look, we've now seen with these revisions uh a tre a real clear signal that employment markets are slowing down uh in a significant way. Uh I would say off of pretty solid levels before.So the question that is in my mind is really uh to what extent is this a one-time move down that will uh persist over time or is this something that we will see where uh the labor mark ...