Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Property & Banks Vanke's bond extension - what are the implications? Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $90,500, but this increase is accompanied by rising realized losses and weakening demand across the market [1][5] - Investors are exiting positions at a loss, indicating a potential exhaustion in the market rather than a recovery [2] - Large deposits are driving the latest BTC inflows to exchanges, with the average deposit value significantly increasing as whales sell their coins [3] On-Chain Analysis - The recent surge in deposits coincides with weakening liquidity conditions, raising concerns about the market's ability to absorb supply [4] - Realized losses have reached levels similar to previous cycle lows, and the short-term holder profit and loss ratio has collapsed, indicating a lack of buying momentum [5] Price Movements - Bitcoin is holding above the $90,000 level, but on-chain and derivatives data suggest the rebound lacks conviction and is vulnerable without stronger demand [6] - Ether (ETH) is trading near the $2,900 zone, with rising large-holder deposits and weak demand signals indicating a fragile rebound [6] - Gold has climbed above $4,170, driven by expectations for lower U.S. interest rates boosting demand for the metal [6] Stock Market Performance - Asia-Pacific stocks have risen, with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.42%, influenced by Wall Street's rebound on rising hopes for Fed rate cuts [7]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently facing significant downward pressure, recently trading at $99,000, with potential for further declines before any recovery occurs [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Conditions - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a selloff due to a combination of adverse conditions, including a broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets and a recent crash on October 10 [3][4] - The S&P 500 index has also seen a pullback, indicating a general decline in risk assets, with technology stocks particularly affected [4] Group 2: Liquidity Environment - A tighter macro liquidity environment is contributing to the current market conditions, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet continuing to shrink despite plans to end quantitative tightening by December [4] - Interbank liquidity stress is becoming evident in repo markets, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene sooner than anticipated to provide additional liquidity [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Bitcoin may experience further declines, with expectations of sub-$100,000 prices before any potential recovery [7] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has contributed to rising risk-off sentiment, further complicating the market outlook [7]

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