Quick Read Gold prices fell over 10% in one of their worst weeks in nearly 15 years amid the Iran war and rising oil prices, while Bitcoin (BTC) declined just 2.5% over the week and rose 5.3% over the month, suggesting a potential reversal where Bitcoin acts as a hedge rather than gold during geopolitical crises. Gold’s sharp decline probably stems from trader liquidity issues and mechanical corrections rather than fundamental weakness, while Bitcoin’s relative stability during the Middle East crisis i ...

Bitcoin surged higher over the weekend as the conflict in the Middle East entered its third week, with the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum carrying over into Monday. The leading crypto hit $74,157 in the early Asian trading session Monday morning, according to data from price aggregator CoinGecko. At time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at around $73,978, up 3.1% on the day and 9.1% on the week. Bitcoin's rise comes in spite of escalating geopolitical tensions due to the U.S.-Iran war, which has spa ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has not followed the typical pattern of rising during geopolitical tensions, particularly since the onset of the Iran war, with analysts attributing this to a stronger U.S. dollar and liquidity concerns rather than a decline in safe-haven demand [1][8]. Price Movements - Following the start of the Iran war, spot gold initially surged to $5,260 per ounce but then experienced a sharp pullback, dropping nearly 3.6% to around $5,137 per ounce on March 3 [2]. - As of the latest data, gold was priced at approximately $5,165.63 per ounce, translating to about $166.08 per gram and $166,078.74 per kilogram [2]. Analyst Forecasts - Morgan Stanley has raised its long-term gold price forecast to $4,500, maintaining a bullish year-end 2026 target of $6,300 [3]. - Other major banks have set various targets for gold prices, with Morgan Stanley predicting $5,700 per ounce in a bull case scenario for the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs anticipates $5,400 by December 2026 [7]. Influencing Factors - Analysts from Morgan Stanley highlight that expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, currency market dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and liquidity issues are currently shaping gold's price trajectory [4]. - The bank suggests that if geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices are likely to rise in the future [5].

Liquidity & Monetary Policy - End of Quantitative Tightening (QT), industry anticipates the timing of Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - Discussion of the current REPO crisis and its implications [1] - Examination of liquidity issues and associated risks for banks [1] - Addressing misinformation surrounding Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Market Impact - Analysis of the implications for Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks [1]

Concerns Regarding Private Market Assets in 401(k) Plans - Introducing complexity with private equity might not be the best idea for most investors, as many struggle with basic investment principles [3] - There are concerns about the track record of private equity, especially in the current high-interest rate environment [4] - The private equity industry has changed significantly in the last 20 years, and it's unclear if current returns justify its inclusion alongside stocks in retirement accounts [5] - Liquidity and pricing issues are significant concerns, as these assets are not marked to market daily [5] - Transparency is lacking, making it difficult to objectively determine appropriate allocation amounts [11] Considerations for Including Private Market Assets - For young investors with a long-term investment horizon, private equity in a 401(k) might be suitable, but this is the exception, not the rule [6][7] - Private assets may offer greater diversification and non-correlation to a portfolio [8] - Private credit has performed well in recent years, but its future performance is uncertain due to increased competition and changing market conditions [10] Recommendations and Cautions - Investors should master investing in traditional asset classes like large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, international stocks, and credit before considering alternative assets [13] - Advisors, the public, and everyone should do their homework and wait for more performance data before investing in private market assets [14] - Alternative investments should only be considered for accounts above a certain size [12]