Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Qifu Technology with a 12-month price target of US$58.50, while the current price is US$42.94 [5][25]. Core Insights - Qifu Technology is experiencing stable operating trends in Q2 2025, with a modest quarter-over-quarter decline in loan volume expected due to a strong Q1 and a soft start in Q2 [2]. - The company reaffirms its 2025 net take rate target of 5.2-5.3%, indicating a positive outlook for loan volume growth of 6-7% [3]. - Regulatory risks are considered manageable, with expectations for better clarity on new loan facilitation regulations before October [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Qifu Technology's revenues are projected to grow from Rmb16,939 million in 2024 to Rmb18,793 million in 2025, with net earnings expected to increase from Rmb6,264 million in 2024 to Rmb6,857 million in 2025 [8]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from Rmb42.38 in 2024 to Rmb53.52 in 2025 [6]. Market Position - The company is a leading loan facilitation platform in China, focusing on consumer loans and utilizing both credit-driven and platform service models [10]. - The market capitalization of Qifu Technology is approximately US$5.96 billion, with a free float of 79% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 5.8 for 2025 and a P/BV ratio of 1.6, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [8]. - Forecast returns include a price appreciation of 36.2% and a dividend yield of 3.4%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 39.7% [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a 10% year-over-year revenue growth, with a record-breaking quarterly net profit of RMB738 million, representing a 39% increase year-over-year and an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter [9][27] - The take rate in China increased from 3.3% to 3.4% sequentially, with a 10 basis point decline in funding costs [20][44] - Net revenue for the quarter reached RMB3.5 billion, marking a 10% increase year-over-year and a 1% increase sequentially [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - International transaction volume grew by 36% year-over-year, while China's transaction volume grew by 7% [9] - The international business contributed 20.4% of total net revenue in the first quarter, up from 18.8% in the same period last year [11] - The outstanding loan balance in international markets rose to RMB1.9 billion, up 46% year-over-year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-over-year, while retail sales rose by 5.9% in March [19] - In Indonesia, transaction volume reached RMB1.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while in The Philippines, transaction volume reached RMB1.2 billion, up 180% year-over-year [22][24] - The unique borrower base in international markets reached a record high of 1,700,000, marking a 106% year-over-year increase [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to have international business contribute 50% of total revenue by 2025 [11] - The strategic diversification initiatives in international markets are designed to mitigate single country risk [11] - The company is exploring the use of larger language models in risk assessment to improve operational efficiency [13] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties such as global trade tensions and evolving regulations in China's consumer finance sector [9] - The company remains confident in achieving its full-year revenue guidance of RMB14.4 billion to RMB15 billion, representing 10% to 15% growth year-over-year [29] - Management noted that the new regulations on loan facilitation in China are seen as a positive signal for the industry's healthy development [35] Other Important Information - The company facilitated RMB15 billion in financing for 442,000 small business owners, representing a 1510% increase [15] - The Board of Directors approved a dividend of US$0.27 per ADS, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new regulations on loan facilitation in China - Management acknowledged the new regulations and viewed them as a positive signal for the industry's development, stating that the overall impact is manageable [33][35] Question: Impact of U.S. tariffs on consumption loan demand in Indonesia and the Philippines - Management noted that while trade tensions have introduced challenges, domestic demand remains strong, and they expect a rebound in Q2 [36][38] Question: Loan application demand trend in China and credit approval plans - Management reported steady loan application demand in April and May, with a slight decline in April followed by a rebound in May [41][42] Question: Drivers for improved take rate in the Chinese business - The take rate increased due to improved funding costs and extended loan tenure, with expectations for stability moving forward [44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-GAAP net income increased by 59.9% year over year to RMB 1.93 billion, while non-GAAP EPADS on a fully diluted basis rose by 78.5% to RMB 13.5 [6] - Total revenue for Q1 was RMB 4.69 billion, compared to RMB 4.48 billion in Q4 and RMB 4.15 billion a year ago [20] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 1.93 billion in Q1 compared to RMB 1.97 billion in Q4 [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.11 billion in Q1, up from RMB 2.89 billion in Q4 [20] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.58 billion in Q1, slightly down from RMB 1.59 billion in Q4 [21] - Loan volume from embedded finance channels grew by 36% year over year, while loan volume surged by roughly 106% [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 1,540,000 new credit line users in Q1, up 6% year over year [11] - Ninety-day delinquency rate was 2.02% in Q1, down from 2.09% in Q4 [23] - The overall ROA of embedded finance channels improved by 20% on a sequential basis [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is rolling out an AI plus credit strategy aimed at building the industry's first AI agent platform [7] - Plans to recruit an additional 100 algorithm engineers by the end of the year to accelerate transformation into an AI-native organization [7] - The company expects to maintain a low funding cost in the long run while adopting a prudent lending strategy [66] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the economy, supported by technological innovation and government measures to boost domestic demand [16] - The macroeconomic and policy landscape is showing signs of stabilization, which will provide a favorable environment for the consumer credit industry [16] - The company expects non-GAAP net income for Q2 to be between RMB 1.75 billion and RMB 1.85 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 24-31% [30] Other Important Information - The company issued RMB 6.6 billion in ABS, a year-over-year increase of approximately 25% [11] - The effective tax rate for Q1 was 18%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [26] - The company has executed a share repurchase program with a total repurchase expected to be no less than USD 680 million this year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of new loan facilitation rules and credit quality trends - Management views the new rules as a positive signal for the industry, promoting orderly development and recognizing the value of leading loan facilitation platforms [34] - Asset quality remains stable, with the C2M2 ratio at 0.6%, significantly better than previous periods [35][36] Question: Asset quality indicators and credit demand trends - The increase in day one delinquency was driven by a change in loan mix, with a higher percentage from embedded finance channels [42] - Credit demand has shown early signs of recovery, but macro uncertainties persist [37][45] Question: Assessment of tariff tensions and ADR delisting risk - The direct impact of tariffs on the business is limited, with only a small percentage of loan volume affected [48] - The company has a clear plan to respond to potential ADR delisting risks, including a secondary listing in Hong Kong [52][54] Question: Customer acquisition costs and strategy adjustments - The increase in customer acquisition cost was driven by a change in business mix, with a higher contribution from API channels [58] - The company will continue to monitor macro changes and adjust acquisition strategies accordingly [62] Question: Loan demand trends and funding liquidity - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively impacted credit demand [65] - The company expects funding costs to decrease slightly from Q1 levels and plans to optimize its funding structure [66]