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中国金融_7 月 M1 增长在贷款增长更理性的情况下持续反弹,两者形成良好组合-China Financials -Continued rebound in M1 growth in July amid more rational loan growth is a good combo
2025-08-14 01:36
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Financials - **Date**: August 13, 2025 - **Analysts**: Richard Xu, CFA; Chiyao Huang; Beryl Yang; Chenqian Liu Core Insights 1. **Loan Growth Trends**: RMB loan growth moderated to **6.8% year-on-year (yoy)** in July, with a decline of **Rmb50 billion** in the month. This was supported by an increase in bills amounting to **Rmb871 billion**. Year-to-date (YTD) new corporate loans added **Rmb10.66 trillion**, down **1% yoy**. The slowdown is attributed to rationalization in industrial capital expenditure and local government financing vehicle (LGFV) swaps [2][9][10] 2. **Household Loans**: Household loans remained weak, particularly consumption loans, with YTD short-term household loans declining by **Rmb383 billion** compared to an increase of **Rmb61 billion** last year. This decline is partly due to banks adopting a more conservative risk appetite following higher retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) in the previous year [2][9] 3. **Deposit Growth**: Household deposit growth decreased to **10.3% yoy** in July, with a monthly decline of **Rmb500 billion**. This decline is attributed to seasonal deposit flows to wealth management products (WMPs) and early signs of capital flow to equity markets. In contrast, corporate deposit growth accelerated to **4.1% yoy**, likely due to increased bond issuance and improved corporate cash flow [3][9] 4. **M1 and Corporate Deposits**: M1 growth rebounded to **5.6% yoy**, indicating a positive trend alongside the acceleration in corporate deposit growth. This combination is expected to help reduce corporate credit risks [4][9] 5. **Total Social Financing (TSF)**: Headline TSF increased by **9.0% yoy** in July, up from **8.9% in June**, supported by government bond issuance despite slower loan growth. Government bonds added **Rmb1.2 trillion** in July, with corporate bond growth recovering from a low base in 2024 [9][10] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report indicates a shift towards more rational loan growth and a rebound in M1 and corporate deposit growth, which are seen as positive indicators for the financial stability of the sector [4][9] - **Investment Outlook**: The overall view of the China Financials sector is deemed attractive, suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst the current market conditions [5][63] Important Data Points - **RMB Loan Growth**: 6.8% yoy [2] - **Household Loan Decline**: Rmb383 billion YTD [2] - **Corporate Deposit Growth**: 4.1% yoy [3] - **M1 Growth**: 5.6% yoy [4] - **TSF Growth**: 9.0% yoy [9] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current trends and outlook for the China Financials sector.