Core Viewpoint - The seminar emphasized that development is the foundation for solving all problems in China, and economic growth is essential for high-quality development, necessitating a balance between qualitative improvement and quantitative growth [1] Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - Experts suggested that fiscal policy should play a larger role this year, with a deficit rate higher than or at least not lower than the previous year, and an increase in the scale of national debt issuance to expand total expenditure [1] - A recommendation was made for a significant overall interest rate cut of at least 50 basis points throughout the year to stimulate investment and consumption, alongside better utilization of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [1] - There is a call for enhanced coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to effectively leverage new financial policy tools and appropriately expand their scale to achieve a leverage effect on investment [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Credit Market Stability - To stabilize investment and boost consumption, it is crucial to restore the foundational conditions for effective credit issuance, which includes increasing efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year, with consumption becoming the primary driver of economic growth [1][4][11] Economic Growth Performance - GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 are 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively, indicating a gradual decline [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, with a notable increase to 56.6% in the third quarter [4][5] Consumption as Growth Driver - Consumption has become the main driver of economic growth, especially in the context of low investment and uncertain foreign trade [4][5] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth has increased significantly over the past three years, with 2022 at 32.8%, 2023 at 82.5%, and 2024 at 44.5% [4] Challenges in Consumption Growth - Despite being the main growth driver, consumption faces challenges, including a decline in retail sales growth and low CPI growth rates [7][8] - Factors affecting consumption include a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market, increased employment pressure, and competition leading to price reductions [7][8] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement macroeconomic policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize the real estate market [9][10] - Experts predict that achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% is feasible, but there is a need to address the gap between macro statistics and micro perceptions [11][12] Long-term Economic Projections - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the potential GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3%, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate sector and reforming social welfare systems [13][14]