Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute forecasts a GDP growth of approximately 4.8% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4 of 2025, indicating a stable economic performance overall in the first three quarters of the year [1]. Economic Growth Projections - The GDP growth for Q3 is expected to be around 4.8%, which is a decrease of about 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1]. - For Q4, the GDP growth is projected to be around 4.5%, with an annual growth target of approximately 5% likely to be achieved [1]. External Environment and Challenges - The external environment remains uncertain, with the U.S. tariff policies expected to slow down China's exports [1]. - There is an anticipated slight slowdown in consumption growth due to diminishing policy effects and insufficient internal momentum [1]. - The real estate sector is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on the economy [1]. Policy Recommendations - Future macroeconomic policies should focus on positive incentives and improving expectations, particularly emphasizing the role of consumer demand [1]. - Fiscal policies need to be timely and robust to ensure the achievement of annual growth targets [1]. - There is a call for stronger incremental policies to stabilize the real estate market and enhance consumption policies [1]. - The report suggests exploring multi-dimensional cooperation to expand diversified trade networks and addressing structural bottlenecks to unleash new industrial production momentum [1].