Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $90,580, which is below the estimated miner production costs of around $101,000 per BTC, indicating a potential short-term rebound as macroeconomic policies evolve in the US [2][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin Price Dynamics - On-chain analyst Willy Woo suggests that investor flows into Bitcoin have been strengthening since December 24, 2025, despite a cautious outlook for 2026 due to declining liquidity [1]. - Historical trends indicate that trading below miner costs does not typically lead to panic selling; instead, miners tend to slow production, creating a temporary floor for prices [3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - President Donald Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% could ease financial burdens for many Americans, potentially driving consumers towards Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) as traditional credit access becomes restricted for those with lower credit scores [5]. - Analysts warn that this shift may lead to increased adoption of alternative financial systems, including Bitcoin, as consumers seek options outside traditional banking [5]. Group 3: Market Behavior and Investor Sentiment - The actual spot inflows into Bitcoin, rather than market narratives or correlations with equity markets, are identified as key drivers for Bitcoin's price recovery [4]. - The potential macro catalyst of Trump's credit cap may intersect with the technical and flow-driven aspects of Bitcoin's market dynamics, suggesting a cautiously bullish sentiment in the near term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute forecasts a GDP growth of approximately 4.8% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4 of 2025, indicating a stable economic performance overall in the first three quarters of the year [1]. Economic Growth Projections - The GDP growth for Q3 is expected to be around 4.8%, which is a decrease of about 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1]. - For Q4, the GDP growth is projected to be around 4.5%, with an annual growth target of approximately 5% likely to be achieved [1]. External Environment and Challenges - The external environment remains uncertain, with the U.S. tariff policies expected to slow down China's exports [1]. - There is an anticipated slight slowdown in consumption growth due to diminishing policy effects and insufficient internal momentum [1]. - The real estate sector is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on the economy [1]. Policy Recommendations - Future macroeconomic policies should focus on positive incentives and improving expectations, particularly emphasizing the role of consumer demand [1]. - Fiscal policies need to be timely and robust to ensure the achievement of annual growth targets [1]. - There is a call for stronger incremental policies to stabilize the real estate market and enhance consumption policies [1]. - The report suggests exploring multi-dimensional cooperation to expand diversified trade networks and addressing structural bottlenecks to unleash new industrial production momentum [1].