Core Viewpoint - The ongoing war in Iran has led to significant macroeconomic uncertainty, yet certain stocks, including Sandisk, Lumentum, and Dow, have experienced price increases despite the adverse conditions [1] Company Summaries - Sandisk has shown resilience in its stock performance amidst the geopolitical turmoil, indicating potential investor confidence or market positioning that mitigates risks associated with the conflict [1] - Lumentum's stock has also risen, suggesting that the company may be benefiting from specific market dynamics or demand that are less affected by the broader economic instability [1] - Dow's stock performance reflects a similar trend, indicating that the company may have strategic advantages or operational strengths that allow it to thrive even in uncertain environments [1]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) shares have declined by 26.6% over the past month, significantly underperforming the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, which fell by 8.7% [1][8] - The stock has also lagged behind the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector and the S&P 500, which saw declines of 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively [1] Industry and Market Conditions - Investor sentiment for Carnival has been negatively impacted by rising energy prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude nearing $105 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate exceeding $100 [2] - Higher fuel prices are particularly critical for cruise operators, as fuel constitutes a significant portion of operating expenses, raising concerns about margin pressure across the cruise sector [3] Company Performance and Challenges - Carnival expects cruise costs, excluding fuel, to rise by approximately 3.25% in 2026 due to inflation, increased advertising, and higher dry-dock activity, which may pressure margins [11] - The cruise industry is facing elevated capacity, especially in the Caribbean, with non-Carnival capacity projected to grow by about 14% in 2026, potentially moderating pricing power [12] - The company is incurring higher operating expenses related to maintenance and strategic investments, which may add to near-term cost pressures [13] Long-term Outlook and Strategic Positioning - Despite near-term challenges, Carnival is well-positioned to benefit from resilient cruise demand, with management indicating that the company is about two-thirds booked for 2026 at historically high prices [15] - The company emphasizes the value proposition of cruise vacations, which still offer a favorable "price-to-experience" advantage compared to traditional travel options, allowing for gradual pricing improvements [16] - Carnival has made significant progress in strengthening its balance sheet, reducing debt by over $10 billion and achieving a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of approximately 3.4x [18] Valuation and Investment Considerations - CCL is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 9.43X, below the industry average of 14.84X, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [20] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CCL's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 9.8% and 10%, respectively, although earnings estimates have declined recently [23] - While the stock's valuation appears attractive, recent downward revisions in earnings estimates and ongoing external uncertainties suggest a cautious approach may be warranted [26]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, both domestically and globally, is prompting advisors and investors to consider the flexibility offered by active ETFs [1] Group 1 - Many advisors and investors are leaning towards active ETFs as a potential solution to navigate the current economic landscape [1]

Group 1 - Ross Stores forecasts annual sales above Wall Street estimates, driven by resilient demand for discounted apparel and accessories amid macroeconomic uncertainty [1] - Shares of Ross Stores rose approximately 6% in after-hours trading following the sales forecast [1] - The company anticipates annual same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%, exceeding analysts' estimate of a 3.05% increase [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責 任。 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：444） 更新公告 茲提述本公司日期為2025年5月30日、2025年8月29日 及2025年11月28日的公告 （「該等公告」），內 容 有 關 不 發 表 意 見 的 更 新。除 文 義 另 有 所 指 外，本 公 告 所 用 詞 彙 與 該 等 公 告 中 所 界 定 者 具 有 相 同 涵 義。 除本公司日期為2025年12月31日的季度更新公告及本公司日期為2026年2月3日 的 公 告 中 所 披 露 者 外，概 無 與 不 發 表 意 見 相 關 的 其 他 重 大 更 新。 就 本 集 團 的 手 錶 分 銷 業 務 而 言，華 貴 手 錶 業 持 續 面 臨 非 必 需 消 費 支 出 疲 弱 及 宏 觀 經 濟 不 確 定 性 的 挑 戰，導 致 消 費 需 求 持 續 疲 軟。預 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. markets opened strong with the Nasdaq up by 1.12%, S&P 500 by 0.63%, Russell 2000 by 0.44%, and Dow Jones by 0.42% [2] - Almost all S&P 500 sectors are experiencing gains, except for staples (-0.38%) and energy (-0.22%), with technology (+0.94%), financials (+0.85%), and health care (+0.66%) leading the advances [3] Political Impact - President Trump's State of the Union address aimed to reassure a shaken Republican base but left many questions about its impact on the electorate and markets [3] - The address was perceived as a missed opportunity for Congressional Republicans to address disillusionment and make significant promises, focusing instead on a "feel good" narrative and tax cuts [4] - The performance may help stabilize an increasingly anxious Republican party facing numerous retirement announcements among Congressional members [5] Commodity Insights - Bank of America projects gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce due to macroeconomic uncertainty, with silver potentially rallying to $100 [6] - Current prices for gold are at $5,196.60 (+0.45%) and silver at $90.14 (+3.01%), indicating they are still below the projected levels despite a strong performance in January [6]

Group 1 - XRP's price has declined, with analysts warning it could fall below $1 as investors shift to safer assets [1][4] - The Federal Reserve has proposed a dedicated "crypto" risk class for derivatives models, which includes XRP, but the short-term impact remains uncertain [5][6][7] - Analysts suggest that XRP's real-world utility may not be sufficient to support its valuation during macroeconomic stress, leading to potential normalization toward $1 or lower [2][3][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's proposal aims to categorize digital assets, including XRP, into a new risk class, separating them from traditional asset categories [6] - Despite some online optimism regarding XRP's future price projections, analysts caution against overestimating its potential without measurable growth in market share and adoption [3][8]

Core Insights - Apple Inc. reported strong sales growth in Q4 2025, achieving a market share of 69%, up from 65% the previous year, despite overall U.S. smartphone sales increasing only 1% Y/Y [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - Apple achieved its best sales quarter, driven by strong sales of iPhone 16e and 17 models in mid-range and premium segments [2] - The iPhone segment led Apple's growth with sales rising to $85.27 billion, up from $69.14 billion last year [9] - AT&T recorded its highest share of Apple sales at 89%, with T-Mobile and Verizon also seeing increases [3] Group 2: Market Trends - The mid-range price band ($300-$600) grew by 27% Y/Y, as consumers opted for more affordable devices due to macroeconomic conditions [3] - The sub-$300 market segment declined by 7% Y/Y due to weak demand and consolidation in low-end smartphones [4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Apple is shifting its focus to high-margin premium devices, prioritizing production of its top three devices, including a foldable iPhone [7] - Supply chain challenges are limiting Apple's ability to meet rising handset demand, with expectations of a more significant impact from rising memory prices in the coming quarters [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are monitoring whether momentum in the $300 to $600 segment can be sustained beyond the holiday season, indicating potential consumer trading down amid economic uncertainty [6] - Rising memory prices are expected to pressure low-cost smartphone makers, with a projected increase in bills of materials by at least 15% over the next two quarters [5]

Core Insights - The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is in the final stage of consultations on proposed crypto regulations, seeking feedback on 10 rules to enhance market trust and competitiveness [1] - The cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by 0.8% to $3.05 trillion, with 93 of the top 100 coins experiencing price drops [5][4] - Macro uncertainty has led to over $550 million in crypto liquidations, impacting major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) [4][6] Market Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $87,860, having fallen by 0.7%, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $2,892, down 1.5% [4][11] - Over the past week, BTC has decreased by 5.1%, and ETH has fallen by 9.2%, indicating a broader trend of declining prices in the crypto market [10][12] - The crypto fear and greed index has dropped to 29, reflecting a sentiment shift towards fear in the market [13][14] Regulatory Developments - The FCA's proposed regulations aim to create a more open and sustainable crypto market, marking a significant step in regulatory oversight [1] - Japan is expected to approve its first set of spot crypto ETFs by 2028, indicating a potential shift in regulatory stance towards cryptocurrencies [17] Investment Trends - Recent outflows from US spot BTC and ETH ETFs totaled $103.57 million and $41.74 million respectively, marking the fifth consecutive day of negative flows [14][15] - The total net inflow for BTC ETFs has decreased to $56.49 billion, while ETH ETFs stand at $12.3 billion [15][14] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by caution and fear, with investors shifting towards safer assets amid heightened geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures [6][8][14] - Traditional commodities have seen a rally, contrasting with Bitcoin's underperformance, suggesting a divergence in asset class responses to current market conditions [7][6]

Core Viewpoint - McCormick forecasts fiscal 2026 profit below analysts' estimates due to higher costs from tariffs and commodities, which are squeezing margins amid macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Company Summary - McCormick is facing increased costs that are impacting its profit margins, primarily due to tariffs and rising commodity prices [1] - The company's profit forecast for fiscal 2026 is lower than what analysts had anticipated, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Industry Summary - The food industry, particularly companies like McCormick, is experiencing margin pressures due to macroeconomic factors, including tariffs and commodity price fluctuations [1]