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Prologis vs. Union Pacific: Which Supply Chain Giant Has More Room to Run?
The Motley Foolยท 2025-07-09 01:26
Core Viewpoint - Prologis is positioned as a stronger investment opportunity compared to Union Pacific due to its significant growth potential in the e-commerce sector and its ability to generate income through its extensive warehouse operations [1][15]. Prologis Overview - Prologis is a major real estate investment trust (REIT) with a warehouse footprint of 1.3 billion square feet, equivalent to two Manhattans, and facilitates the flow of $2.7 trillion in goods annually, ranking it as the eighth-largest economy globally [3]. - The company has strategically located warehouses near major metro areas and transportation hubs, making it ideal for rapid delivery services, with notable clients including Amazon, Home Depot, and FedEx [4]. Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, Prologis signed 58 million square feet of new leases, an increase from 48 million in Q1 2024, and initiated $650 million in new developments, up from $273 million the previous year [5]. - The company achieved a 10.9% increase in funds from operations (FFO) in Q1, driven by strong tenant retention and rising rents, while net operating income rose by 6.2% [6]. Market Demand and Future Growth - E-commerce currently accounts for approximately 24% of U.S. retail sales and is projected to exceed 30% by 2030, necessitating an additional 60 to 70 million square feet of warehouse space for each percentage point increase [8]. - Prologis possesses enough undeveloped land to support $41.2 billion in future warehouse constructions, positioning it well to meet increasing demand [9]. Union Pacific Overview - Union Pacific operates a vast network of 32,693 miles of track, generating revenue primarily from freight transportation, including coal, grain, and automobiles [10]. - Unlike Prologis, Union Pacific faces limitations in expanding its operations due to the nature of its railroad business, which requires significant capital for maintenance rather than new construction [11]. Recent Performance - Under CEO Jim Vena, Union Pacific has improved operational efficiency, resulting in a 7% increase in carload revenue and generating $2.2 billion in cash in its latest quarter [12]. Investment Considerations - While Union Pacific has solid fundamentals, its growth is constrained by market cycles and a near-capacity network, limiting long-term upside potential [13]. - Prologis offers a more attractive investment profile with a 3.8% dividend yield compared to Union Pacific's 2.4%, making it a better choice for investors seeking both income and growth [15].