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Mission Produce's Margin Squeeze: Glitch or Structural Weakness?
ZACKSยท 2025-08-19 17:31
Core Insights - Mission Produce, Inc. reported a 28% increase in revenue to $380.3 million for Q2 fiscal 2025, but gross profit fell by 8.3% to $28.4 million, indicating a margin squeeze due to supply challenges and unique costs [1][9] - The gross margin decreased to 7.5%, down 290 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to falling per-unit margins on avocados [1] - Management indicated that some pressures are situational rather than permanent, with sourcing adjustments helping to improve margins towards the end of the quarter [2] Financial Performance - Mission Produce's gross profit declined despite record revenue growth, highlighting vulnerabilities in its business model when supply dynamics tighten [1][9] - The company faced unique costs, including $1.1 million in tariffs and $1.5 million related to Canadian facility closures, which further pressured profitability [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a year-over-year earnings decline of 20.3% for both fiscal 2025 and 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past week [11] Competitive Landscape - Mission Produce faces stiff competition from Dole Plc and Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc., both of which have demonstrated different margin dynamics [5] - Dole has maintained resilient margins despite sourcing and shipping challenges, benefiting from strong pricing and demand in key markets [6] - Fresh Del Monte's gross profit increased to $120.1 million, with a gross margin expansion to 10.2%, driven by strong demand for proprietary products [7] Market Dynamics - Avocado pricing and supply remain volatile, making Mission Produce reliant on global sourcing agility to protect margins [3] - The upcoming Peruvian harvest is expected to be significantly stronger than last year, which will be a critical test for margin normalization [4] - Mission Produce's stock has gained 15% over the last three months, outperforming the industry growth of 6.6% [8] Valuation Metrics - Mission Produce trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 29.93X, which is significantly above the industry average of 14.86X [10]