Turkey raises the minimum wage for next year by 27%, broadly in line with market expectations https://t.co/gwpMHFpaTM ...

Core Insights - Constellium SE is a significant player in the metal products distribution industry, particularly in aluminum production, with strong market presence in aerospace, automotive, and packaging sectors [1] Financial Performance - The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.627, exceeding the estimated $0.315, resulting in an earnings surprise of 67.57% [2] - Revenue for the third quarter reached approximately $2.166 billion, surpassing the estimated $1.788 billion, representing a 2.87% beat over the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $235 million, with contributions from Aerospace & Transportation ($90 million) and Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products ($82 million) [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The company repurchased 1.7 million shares for $25 million, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [5] - Financial metrics include a P/E ratio of 49.46, a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.60, and a current ratio of 1.23, reflecting its valuation and financial structure [5]

Unemployment Rate - US unemployment rate remains at 4.3% [1] - The actual unemployment rate matches expectations [1] Market Sentiment - The report suggests a bullish outlook for markets [1]

Market Volatility & Economic Data - The market may experience increased volatility if economic data significantly surprises to the upside or downside, especially given equity valuations predicated on substantial Fed easing [2] - Hedge funds' significant short positions on the VIX suggest a widespread expectation of continued complacency in the market [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The market has priced in approximately five rate cuts by the July meeting, while inflation uncertainty remains [2] - The market is heavily invested in expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, influenced by Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole [4] - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, or even a potential 50 basis point cut, depends on the magnitude of the miss or beat in upcoming payrolls and labor market data [7] Labor Market Analysis - Last month's payrolls data indicated a more precarious labor market due to significant downward revisions [6] - The key labor market indicators this week, including the payrolls print, will guide the September cut and further decisions [7] - Consensus expects approximately 100,000 job gains in August, with focus on the unemployment rate, currently at 42% [9] - An increase in the unemployment rate to 44%, especially amid immigration restrictions, is a key gauge closely monitored by the Fed [10] - Given revisions, the ADP print may be a more accurate gauge than the BLS data, potentially shifting market attention [11]

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 45% [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) continues, with the Fed reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, although the pace has slowed [2][3] - The market is pricing in a higher probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in September [11][48] - Tariffs could cause a one-time price increase, influencing the Fed's decisions regarding rate cuts [26][27][30] Crypto Market Analysis - Lower interest rates and no quantitative tightening typically lead to outperformance of altcoins or higher-risk assets [7] - Bitcoin has outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening and higher interest rates [7][8][9] - Altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin, with altcoins down against ETH (Ethereum) by approximately 45% since ETH went home back in April [8][19] - The industry anticipates all Bitcoin pairs may decline around September or October, potentially due to unmet expectations of rate cuts [15][17] Market Outlook and Strategy - The industry expects the 10-year yield is likely heading back up to 5%, and the dollar is expected to build a base over the next several months, potentially rising in 2026 [20] - Ethereum is expected to break through $4,000 within the next few months [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance could increase together, with liquidity flowing into these "blue-chip" cryptocurrencies [23][24] - Assets that are performing well are more likely to continue performing well [44]

Market Outlook - The market rebounded due to reduced recession risks and a lower trade uncertainty index [2] - Corporate earnings have contributed to the market's resilience [2] - Earnings will be a key factor, with expectations of a somewhat positive earning season [3][4] - A period of consolidation may be needed after the recent market rally [4] - The market's reaction to earnings reports will be important [6] - The bull market has earned the benefit of the doubt, with an expected upward trend despite potential setbacks [7] Economic Factors - Fixed income team sees fair value in the 10-year Treasury yield around current levels [10] - Rising 30-year yields globally are being monitored [10] - The market has been resilient despite the Federal Reserve being on hold [11] - A rate cut in September is still likely, but earnings and technology are more important for the market [11][12] Investment Strategy - Overall allocations are aligned with long-term targets, not maximum bullishness [13] - Focus is on large-cap and growth stocks [15] - Maintaining high-quality fixed income and a positive stance on gold as hedges [15]

Market Expectations & Trade Relations - Market expectations regarding US-China trade talks are realistic, with no anticipation of a grand deal [1][2] - A minor agreement on rare earth exports in exchange for tech exports may disappoint the market [2] - US effective tariff rate on all trade partners reached over 7% in April, a multiple of the rate in the past 25 years [3] - Tariff rate on China was up in the high 30% in April, subsequently decreasing but remaining at extreme levels [3] - Without a positive surprise in trade talks, the market may drift lower as profit-taking begins [4] Equity Market Performance - No fresh record highs are expected for US or global stocks [5] - US stocks have underperformed global stocks by approximately 7 trillion over the past four months [5] - US stocks experienced a sharp decline from early February to mid-March, subsequently keeping pace with global stocks [6] - A new positive catalyst is needed for US stocks to reach fresh record highs [7] Currency Market Outlook - The possibility of Euro/Dollar reaching 140 is being discussed [7] - The US dollar is expected to structurally decline significantly in the coming years, though not in a straight line [9] - An overshoot to 140 on Euro/Dollar is feasible but not expected this year [9]

Companies used to handling market expectations tend to play it safe with their quarterly guidance during product transitions, unless they’re sure about the new product ramp-up and how smoothly the transition will go.對管理市場預期比較有經驗的公司，在面對產品轉換的季度時，除非對新產品量產與轉換效率有信心，否則通常都會用比較謹慎的態度提供指引。 ...