BREAKING:🇺🇲 US UNEMPLOYMENT RATEACTUAL: 4.3%EXPECTATIONS: 4.3%BULLISH FOR MARKETS 🚀 ...

Is that too much complacency out there, do you think. I certainly think that is the case. I mean, looking at hedge funds, kind of betting on shorting the VIX, the most we've seen in three years really does suggest that they expect this comp to persist.I think we expect greater volatility if we do see some of this economic data materially surprise to the upside of the downside, just given that equities have really been predicated on the Fed easing coming through quite materially. We have about five rate cuts ...

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent FOMC and we'll of course talk about the crypto markets as well and some of the longerterm trends there. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Powell basically said a lot of the same things he always says today. Uh but just so you know, in case you're curious ...

Market Outlook - The market rebounded due to reduced recession risks and a lower trade uncertainty index [2] - Corporate earnings have contributed to the market's resilience [2] - Earnings will be a key factor, with expectations of a somewhat positive earning season [3][4] - A period of consolidation may be needed after the recent market rally [4] - The market's reaction to earnings reports will be important [6] - The bull market has earned the benefit of the doubt, with an expected upward trend despite potential setbacks [7] Economic Factors - Fixed income team sees fair value in the 10-year Treasury yield around current levels [10] - Rising 30-year yields globally are being monitored [10] - The market has been resilient despite the Federal Reserve being on hold [11] - A rate cut in September is still likely, but earnings and technology are more important for the market [11][12] Investment Strategy - Overall allocations are aligned with long-term targets, not maximum bullishness [13] - Focus is on large-cap and growth stocks [15] - Maintaining high-quality fixed income and a positive stance on gold as hedges [15]

Market Expectations & Trade Relations - Market expectations regarding US-China trade talks are realistic, with no anticipation of a grand deal [1][2] - A minor agreement on rare earth exports in exchange for tech exports may disappoint the market [2] - US effective tariff rate on all trade partners reached over 7% in April, a multiple of the rate in the past 25 years [3] - Tariff rate on China was up in the high 30% in April, subsequently decreasing but remaining at extreme levels [3] - Without a positive surprise in trade talks, the market may drift lower as profit-taking begins [4] Equity Market Performance - No fresh record highs are expected for US or global stocks [5] - US stocks have underperformed global stocks by approximately 7 trillion over the past four months [5] - US stocks experienced a sharp decline from early February to mid-March, subsequently keeping pace with global stocks [6] - A new positive catalyst is needed for US stocks to reach fresh record highs [7] Currency Market Outlook - The possibility of Euro/Dollar reaching 140 is being discussed [7] - The US dollar is expected to structurally decline significantly in the coming years, though not in a straight line [9] - An overshoot to 140 on Euro/Dollar is feasible but not expected this year [9]

Companies used to handling market expectations tend to play it safe with their quarterly guidance during product transitions, unless they’re sure about the new product ramp-up and how smoothly the transition will go.對管理市場預期比較有經驗的公司，在面對產品轉換的季度時，除非對新產品量產與轉換效率有信心，否則通常都會用比較謹慎的態度提供指引。 ...