August 21, 2025 06:39 AM GMT China – Sentiment Tracker | Asia Pacific Growth Cool, Policy Drip, Market Buoyant Growth is cooling in August, but market sentiment remains buoyant on ample liquidity and a steady drip of "right-direction" policy. We see no obvious trigger for immediate stock market curbs, given still reasonable leverage. We watch for telltale shifts in flows, leverage, and narrative transition. Growth Check: Sliding toward ~4.5%Y in 3Q: August export growth will likely moderate to 5-6%Y (7.2%Y ...

All right, so I want to start off. What do you make of what we're seeing in the futures. Futures lower across the board as we await for uh JPAL over at Jackson Hole.What's your take on just the market sentiment right now. I >> I think you hit the nail on the head that that we've had a powerful 34% rally in the S&P over the last 4 and 1/2 months on the basis of the fact that first quarter, second quarter revenues and earnings much stronger than expected and an expectation that the Fed's going to start cuttin ...

European stocks fell as a sharp selloff in technology heavyweights in the US weighed on market sentiment https://t.co/0Ijg8jEWKD ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report provides insights into various asset classes including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, with a focus on expected returns and volatility for Q2 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **Equities Performance Forecast**: - S&P 500 is forecasted to return between 4,900 and 7,200, with a bear case of -22.1% and a bull case of 13.9% [3][3][3]. - MSCI Europe is expected to return between 1,610 and 2,620, with a bear case of -23.1% and a bull case of 23.1% [3][3][3]. - Topix is projected to return between 2,100 and 3,250, with a bear case of -28.3% and a bull case of 9.7% [3][3][3]. - MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) is forecasted to return between 870 and 1,360, with a bear case of -28.1% and a bull case of 11.0% [3][3][3]. - **Fixed Income Insights**: - UST 10-year yield is projected to range from 4.00% to 2.85%, with a bear case return of 7.0% [3][3][3]. - US Investment Grade (IG) credit is expected to yield excess returns of -2.8% in the bear case [3][3][3]. - **Currency Forecasts**: - JPY is expected to strengthen against USD, with a forecast range of 143 to 122 [3][3][3]. - EUR is projected to fluctuate between 1.14 and 1.30 against USD, with a bear case of -4.1% [3][3][3]. - **Commodity Projections**: - Brent crude oil is forecasted to return between $50 and $120, with a bear case of -23.0% [3][3][3]. - Gold is expected to return between $2,975 and $4,200, with a bear case of -16.4% [3][3][3]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment [51][51][51]. - Current sentiment shows a mix of negative and positive indicators, suggesting cautious market behavior [46][46][46]. - **ETF Flows**: - US fixed income ETFs experienced their largest weekly inflow of approximately $12 billion since November 2023, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [7][8][7]. - **Cross-Asset Correlations**: - The report highlights the current correlations among various asset classes, with equities showing a high correlation of 71% and credit at 80% [68][68][68]. - **Positioning Summary**: - The net positioning summary indicates that asset managers are heavily positioned in US equities (28%) while showing a negative positioning in EM equities (-53%) [59][59][59]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected performance across various asset classes, market sentiment, and positioning trends.

In the past quarter, stocks across the S&P 500 remained relatively expensive, with one key exception — the tech sector. Interesting. So what's happening with the tech sector.Well, tech's a massive sector, so let's talk about some key names, some of which are semiconductor stocks. Think about those companies that make builder design those small chips that go into electronic devices. These stocks are more volatile but when they rally they can often carry the entire sector to big gains.I see. But how come they ...

Life Investments. Lauren good morning. Good to see you.>> Good morning Frank. Great to be here. >> All right.We're going to talk a lot more about the integrity of this data for CPI or questions about it at least coming up later in the show. But first the number itself. What do you think this means for the market. >> There's a couple of things that this data means for the market.The first is to acknowledge that 0.3% month on month inflation doesn't sound like a big difference from 0.2% month on month, but if ...

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📊 UPDATE: Market sentiment heating up as Fear & Greed Index hits 75, deep in greed territory. https://t.co/7ESYl5xc0x ...

We're about 2 minutes away from the end of this trading day. Scarlet Fu and Katie Greifeld here to take you through the closing bell. We've got a global simulcast, so let's bring in our friends and radio Carol Massar and Jess Menton Who is in for Tim Stenovec.So it's a ladies this Friday evening bringing together the best of our Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio talent and our YouTube audiences. We want to welcome you worldwide to pass through the most crucial moments of the trading day. I feel like ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global cross-asset markets, including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, with insights from Morgan Stanley Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Forecasts**: - S&P 500 projected returns range from -20.2% (bear case) to 16.7% (bull case) with a base case return of 5.4% [3] - MSCI Europe shows a similar trend with a bear case of -21.4% and a bull case of 25.8% [3] - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) also reflect a bear case of -26.5% and a bull case of 13.5% [3] 2. **Currency Projections**: - JPY expected to depreciate to 147 in the bear case, while the bull case sees it strengthening to 122 [3] - EUR forecasted to range from 1.16 (bear) to 1.30 (bull) [3] - BRL shows resilience with a bear case of 5.54 and a bull case of 5.20 [3] 3. **Fixed Income Returns**: - UST 10-year yield forecasted to decline to 2.85 in the bull case, with a bear case of 4.22 [3] - UKT 10-year yield expected to range from 4.53 (bear) to 3.15 (bull) [3] 4. **Commodity Market Trends**: - Brent crude oil projected to drop to 50 in the bear case, with a bull case reaching 120 [3] - Gold prices forecasted to range from 2,975 (bear) to 4,200 (bull) [3] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - ACWI momentum has reached its lowest level since April, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [7] - Non-farm payroll growth has slowed, with a 3-month moving average of 35,000 [8] 6. **ETF Flows**: - US equities experienced outflows of $0.8 billion, while global equities saw inflows of $5.2 billion [41] - Bond markets showed inflows of $12.8 billion, indicating a shift towards fixed income [41] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Volatility**: - The VIX index spiked sharply following the US jobs report, indicating increased market uncertainty [16] 2. **Cross-Asset Correlations**: - Current cross-asset correlations are at 43%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [73] - Equity and credit correlations are notably high at 71% and 82%, respectively [73] 3. **Positioning Summary**: - US equities show a net positioning of 29% among asset managers, while EM equities are at 44% [66] - Commodities like gold and copper have seen significant shifts in positioning, with gold at 33% long and copper at 13% long [66] 4. **COVA Framework**: - The correlation-valuation (COVA) scorecard identifies portfolio diversifiers, with staples and healthcare showing strong defensive characteristics [81] 5. **Extreme Market Moves**: - Copper experienced a significant decline of 20% due to new tariff details, marking it as one of the largest weekly moves [11][91] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and projections of various asset classes, market sentiment, and positioning trends.