I don't know if you guys have noticed that, but just watching Bitcoin the last few years, we've talked about this before. Usually when FOMC starts, uh, we get some type of reaction by the market. And usually that first reaction is like the wrong one, right.So if it dumps, uh, then, you know, normally it it'll dump and then Bitcoin will rally or if it rallies into it, um, you know, on sort of the first FOMC news, then it it'll probably dump later. So watch for that initial reaction because usually the initia ...

Market Expectations - Options market indicates anticipation of a calmer-than-normal market reaction to the Fed's policy decision [1]

Following that PPI number, a little bit of hotter to read on inflation. Rick Santelli joining us now from Chicago with the bond report. But again, I guess I'm a little bit vexed.That's a thousand word, Rick, about why we're not seeing a bigger move in bonds or stocks. Yeah. Well, that those are my deos.PPI hot claims tame. And the next one, limited treasury reaction to the data. And I could say limited market reaction.You've said basically the same thing. But guess what. The market has a big opinion here, f ...

🇺🇸 TODAY: The CPI data drops at 8:30 AM EST.How will the market react? https://t.co/JK0xvRtx2U ...

Market Reaction & Data Trust - Market is likely to react to recent data revisions, but a significant fallout is not immediately apparent [1][2] - The market was surprised due to lower volatility and liquidity during the summer months [2] - The industry continues to trust the data, acknowledging that some data points are estimates that are backfilled later [5] - Every report needs to be scrutinized in the context of the Federal Reserve's policy shift [6] Labor Market & Economic Narrative - The focus remains on the labor market, specifically the absence of increased layoffs [3] - The prevailing narrative is that employers are hoarding labor [4] - The market perceives the labor market as more critical than inflation, a sentiment telegraphed by the Federal Reserve [8] - Fears of the Federal Reserve being behind the curve are expected to escalate [9] Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy - Incremental inflationary pressures are considered less of a concern, with a return to the "transitory" narrative [10] - Political challenges of elevated unemployment are expected to be more concerning to the Federal Reserve [11] - It's possible the Federal Reserve would have acted differently on rate policy with correct data [8] Investment Strategy - Current guidance advises clients to remain overly diversified across risk spectrums [12] - Fixed income acted as a ballast during the equity drawdown, and foreign markets have been supportive [12] - The industry is constantly seeking opportunities to add or reduce risk based on the evolving environment [13]

Geopolitical Risk & Market Reaction - The market reaction to the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites was surprisingly muted [1][3] - Poly market estimates a 23% probability of Iran attempting to close the Gulf of Hormuz by July [4] - Successful military action by Israel and the US could give China pause regarding its intentions for Taiwan [9] - The market is balancing the positive aspects of neutralizing Iran against the risks of retaliation [8][10] Economic Factors & Investment Strategies - The market believes it can handle a 10% general tariff and 30% tariff on China, assuming it doesn't worsen [11] - New all-time highs in the S&P are attainable in the next several weeks, barring significant action by Iran [12] - Companies may leverage AI to offset the higher prices resulting from tariffs, increasing efficiency and margins [13][15] - Investment opportunities may lie in the potential users of AI who can significantly increase operational efficiency, rather than solely in AI suppliers [14] Middle East Situation - The damage done to Iran's nuclear capabilities has likely set back their progress towards producing a bomb [6] - Neutralizing the Houthis and securing shipping in the Red Sea and Hormuz are key considerations [5]

right now. >> So whether they're less dangerous or more dangerous because you have a regime that's in peril, let's bring in David Zervos, Jeffrey's chief market strategist, to this conversation. As we mentioned, Halima is still here with us.So is Mike Santoli. David, I want to get your thoughts on this, especially given the fact that we are tonight, even though there are a lot of known unknowns, that tonight it is a muted response in stock futures and oil is higher but not surging. >> Morgan I think it's mo ...

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - Market participants are attempting geopolitical analysis, but accuracy is limited due to uncertainty surrounding Iran-Israel tensions [1][2] - Despite direct missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, the market showed resilience, with only a slight dip [2][3] Market Reaction & Positioning - The market's reaction to geopolitical events was not significantly negative, suggesting potential opportunities in fixed income [4][5] - The market's lack of strong reaction indicates that risk asset positioning is not overly committed [8] - There was an emotional liquidation of US risk asset positioning during April and May, setting the stage for a potential market recovery [6] Economic Factors & Outlook - The market may be underestimating the positives from deregulation, fiscal policy, and trade negotiations [7][8] - A fiscal bill with pro-growth features is expected to pass [8]

Geopolitical Risk and Market Reaction - The market initially reacted with a typical bid for gold but an atypical lack of bid for treasuries following Iran's retaliation [1] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East involving Iran and Israel, were considered significant concerns at the start of the year [3] - The market's sanguinity hinges on whether the event is short-lived and oil prices do not escalate further; otherwise, it could pressure inflation [9] Oil Market Dynamics - Historically, oil prices do not sustain spikes caused by disruptions like hurricanes or war, but the current dynamic may be different [4] - While the fundamentals of oil, including supply surplus, remain important, traders are reacting to the geopolitical events, making short positions risky over the weekend [5] - Oil prices were potentially poised for an uptrend regardless of geopolitical tensions, possibly influenced by a weaker dollar [6][7] - Higher energy prices, especially for Europe, pose a headwind for a fragile economy [5] Inflation and Economic Impact - Rising oil prices, coupled with tariffs, could alter the inflation narrative, potentially offsetting the previous expectation that lower oil prices would mitigate tariff-related inflation [7][8] - The Treasury market is attempting to gauge the impact of geopolitical events on inflation [7] - The potential for a "big beautiful bill" (fiscal stimulus) and deregulation in the US could stimulate the economy and increase oil demand [7]