John Heilemann breaks down the Illinois primary races and what they mean for the midterm elections. MS NOW: My Source for News, Opinion, and the World. » Subscribe to MS NOW: https://www.youtube.com/@msnow MS NOW is the go-to destination for domestic and international breaking news, and best-in-class opinion journalism. For more context and news coverage of the most important stories of our day click here: https://www.ms.now/ #Illinois #Politics #Democrata ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil-price shock due to the Iran crisis is expected to have lasting effects on U.S. pump prices, potentially impacting the political landscape in the upcoming midterm elections [1][5]. Oil Price Surge - U.S. crude oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, while diesel prices have risen above $5 per gallon, marking the highest levels since late 2022 [2]. - The disruptions in oil supply are primarily attributed to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for approximately 20% of global oil [2]. Political Implications - Higher energy costs are viewed as a potential liability for the Republican Party in the midterm elections, as sustained high fuel prices could lead to voter dissatisfaction and impact election outcomes [5]. - Polls indicate that voters are increasingly concerned about the cost of living, which could favor Democrats in their bid for a House majority and a tighter control in the Senate [5]. Market Predictions - Analysts suggest that even if geopolitical tensions ease, elevated crude and gasoline prices are likely to persist due to the nature of energy price fluctuations, which tend to decrease more slowly than they increase [3][4]. - The expectation is that it will take time for oil prices to return to lower levels, indicating a prolonged period of high fuel costs [4]. Political Narrative - The Trump administration maintains that higher energy prices are a necessary sacrifice for national security, with expectations that prices will drop significantly post-conflict [3][7]. - However, experts argue that the tangible impact of gasoline prices on voters' perceptions makes it difficult for political narratives to mitigate concerns about affordability [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported revenues of $100.6 million, an increase of 5% compared to $95.5 million in 2024, marking the first time achieving this $100 million milestone [14] - In Q4 2025, revenues were $27.1 million, a sequential increase of 9% from $24.8 million in Q3 2025, but a year-over-year decrease of $3.2 million [15] - Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased to $0.46 for Q4, up 2% sequentially from Q3 2025 [16] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q4 was $16 million, compared to a loss of $13.4 million in Q4 2024, while the full year adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $74.3 million from $92.1 million in 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Audience monetization revenues decreased by $5.5 million in Q4, driven by reductions in advertising, tipping, and platform hosting fees, partially offset by a $2.7 million increase in subscription and licensing fees [15] - The company introduced Rumble Shorts, which achieved over 1 million unique video views in a single day shortly after launch, indicating strong user engagement [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached 52 million for Q4, an 11% sequential increase from Q3, primarily driven by international growth [16] - The company noted that international monetization remains low compared to the U.S. market, indicating potential for future growth [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on aggressive growth in 2026, leveraging new product initiatives and a strengthened sales operation [3][11] - The acquisition of Northern Data is expected to close in Q2 2026, which the company believes will be transformative for its revenue profile [9][11] - The strategy includes using a $100 million advertising commitment from Tether to attract major influencers and podcasters to the platform [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about growth returning, particularly in the context of the upcoming midterm elections and a favorable advertising market [5][11] - The company is preparing to capitalize on the demand for GPU-as-a-service, with Northern Data's strong GPU utilization indicating high market demand [10][12] Other Important Information - The company ended Q4 with total liquidity of $256.4 million, including $237.9 million in cash and cash equivalents [18] - The company plans to market Rumble Shorts heavily due to positive early responses from users [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the addition of Greg Sherrill as President of Sales change the go-to-market strategy? - Management indicated that the strategy will shift to a more proactive approach in securing ad dollars from major agencies, moving away from a previously defensive stance [21][23] Question: How might Rumble Shorts serve as a catalyst for advertising revenue? - Management plans to initially keep advertising off Rumble Shorts to maximize growth, with plans to integrate ads later in the year [24][25] Question: What is the status of the Northern Data acquisition? - Management confirmed that the acquisition is on track to close in Q2 2026, with all processes running on schedule [33][34] Question: How will Tether's $150 million commitment be prioritized? - Management stated that Tether will be treated like any other customer, with the intent to grow the business and meet demand from all clients [51][53] Question: What is the potential for NFL business in the cloud space? - Management sees long-term growth potential in the sports category as teams begin to utilize cloud services for data analysis and content storage [55][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported revenues of $100.6 million, an increase of 5% compared to $95.5 million in 2024, marking the first time achieving the $100 million milestone [12] - In Q4 2025, revenues were $27.1 million, a sequential increase of 9% from $24.8 million in Q3 2025, but a year-over-year decrease of $3.2 million [13] - Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) increased to $0.46 for Q4, up 2% sequentially from Q3 2025 [14] - Adjusted EBITDA loss for Q4 was $16 million, compared to a loss of $13.4 million in Q4 2024, while the full year adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $74.3 million from $92.1 million in 2024 [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Audience monetization revenues decreased by $5.5 million in Q4, driven by lower advertising, tipping, and platform hosting fees, partially offset by a $2.7 million increase in subscription and licensing fees [13] - Cost of services in Q4 decreased 26% year-over-year to $25.6 million, primarily due to an $8.8 million reduction in programming and content expenses [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) reached 52 million for Q4, an 11% sequential increase from Q3, primarily driven by international growth [14] - The company noted that international monetization remains low compared to the U.S. market, indicating potential for future growth [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on aggressive growth, particularly in video and cloud services, with the launch of Rumble Shorts and the acquisition of Northern Data expected to be transformative [3][9] - The strategy includes leveraging a $100 million advertising commitment from Tether to attract major influencers and podcasters to the platform [8] - The company aims to reposition itself within the advertising ecosystem and build a professionalized sales operation to convert its reach into high-value brand partnerships [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about growth returning as the company enters a midterm election year, with a strong state for the video platform to capture audience growth [11] - The acquisition of Northern Data is expected to close in Q2 2026, which management believes will redefine the company's revenue profile [11] - Management highlighted the strong demand for GPU-as-a-service and the positive reception from customers and suppliers regarding the Northern Data acquisition [10] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $256.4 million, including $237.9 million in cash and cash equivalents and $18.5 million in Bitcoin holdings [16] - The company plans to market Rumble Shorts heavily due to its early success, which includes breaking the 1 million unique video views milestone in a single day shortly after launch [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the addition of Greg Sherrill as President of Sales change the go-to-market strategy? - Management indicated that the strategy will shift to a more proactive approach in securing ad dollars from major agencies, moving away from a previously defensive stance [19][20] Question: How might Rumble Shorts serve as a catalyst for advertising revenue? - Management plans to keep advertising off Rumble Shorts initially to focus on growth, with plans to integrate ads later in the year [22][23] Question: What is the status of the Northern Data acquisition? - Management confirmed that the acquisition is on track to close in Q2 2026, with all processes running on schedule [32][33] Question: How will Tether's commitment be prioritized? - Management stated that Tether will be treated like any other customer, with the intent to grow the business and meet demand from all clients [51][53] Question: What is the potential for NFL business in cloud services? - Management sees long-term potential in the sports sector as teams begin to utilize cloud services for data analysis and content storage [55][56]

Is America sliding into autocracy. The speed and scale of Donald Trump's deviations from established norms during his second term have been so dramatic that it's worth stepping back to take stock. Within hours of his inauguration, Trump pardoned hundreds convicted of political violence, a hallmark of aspiring autocracies.Days later, he removed protections from civil servants and fired oversight officials. By summer, police were firing rubber bullets at protesters. Then came the criminal investigation into t ...

I mean, I think Iran and the United States has been a complicated problem, as you know, for, you know, what, 50 years now, just about 50 years, a little under. And I think it's impossible to be the world's superpower and stay out of international conflict. It's just impossible.You inherit this edifice if you are President Trump, he added in his first term as well. And Biden and Obama and George W Bush. And, you know, it's very hard to unpack that or dismantle that edifice.And that edifice is, frankly, the b ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military action in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, is expected to have a bullish impact on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, according to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Actions in Venezuela - The U.S. launched an attack in Caracas, capturing Maduro and his wife [2] - President Trump justified the operation by citing Maduro's indictment on drug-related charges and accused him of threatening U.S. communities and seizing American oil assets [3] - The attack is perceived as a move to gain control over Venezuela's vast crude oil reserves, which exceed 300 billion barrels, the largest in the world [4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump has discussed directing U.S. oil companies to repair Venezuela's oil infrastructure and mentioned that the interim Venezuelan government would provide up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S. [4][5] - Hayes suggests that the goal of tapping into Venezuela's oil reserves is to lower energy prices, which would allow for increased deficit spending and credit without significant inflation concerns [6] - The current political climate, with midterm elections approaching, adds pressure on Trump to address rising costs and stimulate the economy [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Hayes expresses uncertainty about the effectiveness of the U.S. move in extracting oil but anticipates that the market may price oil lower in the short term [8] - A lower oil price environment could create conditions favorable for Bitcoin, which has historically thrived in high-spending, credit-driven scenarios [8]

Core Viewpoint - Piper Sandler's Craig Johnson predicts a modest upside for the S&P 500, estimating a target of 7,150, which represents a 5% increase, but anticipates a choppy market ahead that will test investor patience [1][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Johnson expects the S&P 500 to experience a "jump, slump, and pump" pattern rather than a smooth upward trajectory, even with the influence of AI on stock prices [3][5]. - The market is anticipated to grind higher throughout the year, but not in the manner most investors desire, as early momentum may fade into a weaker middle period due to political noise and investor fatigue [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Volatility - Midterm election years are historically volatile for U.S. stocks, with turbulence linked to political power shifts and policy uncertainty [7]. - The S&P 500 has shown an average return of 14% with a split Congress, compared to nearly 10% under unified Democratic control since 1932, indicating that political dynamics significantly impact market performance [7]. - The pre-midterm period typically sees weak gains, with the S&P 500 averaging only 0.3% in the 12 months leading up to midterms, which is significantly lower than the long-term average of 8.1% [7].

Market Indicators - The Santa Claus rally is viewed as a bullish indicator, particularly during the last five days of the year and the first two days of the new year, which often sees increased stock buying due to tax-loss selling [2][5] - The January barometer, which has historically shown that the S&P is up 90.6% of the time with an average gain of 17.7% over 29 to 32 years, is another key indicator to watch alongside the Santa Claus rally [5] Presidential Term Trends - The second year of a presidential term typically sees an average gain of 3.3% on the S&P, while the sixth year of a president's term is characterized by efforts to cement their legacy, often leading to market-friendly policies [6][7][8] - The current administration's focus on legacy and economic performance has resulted in a robust stock market, with new highs for the Dow in December [9] Seasonal Market Behavior - Historical trends indicate seasonal weakness in the market during the summer months (May through October), which can be exacerbated by midterm elections that divert attention from economic issues [12][13] - The period from August to October is traditionally seen as a weak seasonal period, but this year did not follow that trend, which is considered a bullish sign for a potential Q4 rally [15] Q4 Market Expectations - The Q4 of a midterm year to Q2 of a pre-election year has historically shown significant market gains, with the Dow and S&P up 19% and 20%, respectively, and the NASDAQ up nearly 30% during this period [16] - Despite some profit-taking following a strong AI tech boom, the outlook remains positive for continued market growth as the calendar year turns [17]

Summary of North American Oil & Gas Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the North American Oil & Gas industry, providing predictions and insights for 2026, including stock performance and commodity prices [2][4]. Key Predictions and Insights 1. **Crude Oil Price Outlook**: - Crude oil prices are expected to show a two-half performance in 2026, with a forecast of narrowing oversupply leading to a balanced market by 2027. Current WTI prices are projected to remain in the $55-60/bbl range, with potential declines towards $50 before recovery [5][6]. 2. **Energy Sector Performance**: - The energy sector requires WTI prices of $65-70 by year-end 2026 to outperform the S&P 500. The previous threshold of $80 was not met, but the sector has shown resilience with an average WTI of approximately $65 in 2025 [5][6]. 3. **Natural Gas Market Dynamics**: - A forecast of $4.00/mmbtu for Henry Hub natural gas prices in 2026, with improvements in basis differentials due to increased LNG exports and new pipeline capacities. Projects like GCX Expansion and Blackcomb are expected to enhance capacity significantly [5][6]. 4. **Preference for Natural Gas E&Ps**: - Natural Gas Exploration & Production (E&Ps) are favored over Oil E&Ps due to long-term demand growth and stable pricing expectations. The outlook suggests that natural gas prices can remain flat at $3.50-4.00 long-term, supporting cash flow generation for E&Ps [5][6]. 5. **Activity Levels in North America**: - The U.S. rig count is stable, indicating that activity levels are bottoming out. Despite some expected weakness in early 2026, higher activity levels are anticipated in the second half of 2026 as crude oil and natural gas prices improve [5][6]. 6. **Balance Sheet Strength**: - Companies with strong balance sheets are expected to outperform, especially if crude oil prices remain weak in the first half of 2026. Balance sheet improvements are seen as a key driver for stock performance [5][6]. 7. **Shift from Capex to Buybacks**: - Should WTI prices decline to $50, companies are likely to reduce capital expenditures and increase stock buybacks, which could be beneficial for long-term investor returns [5][6]. 8. **Increased Exploration Activity**: - A resurgence in exploration activity is anticipated as companies seek resources outside core areas due to depth concerns in existing fields. Major players like EOG and MUR are expected to lead this trend [5][6]. 9. **Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)**: - A reversal in M&A activity is expected in 2026, with more public-to-public transactions aimed at improving resource quality and balance sheet strength. This trend is anticipated to ramp up as the number of private E&Ps available for acquisition declines [5][6]. 10. **Impact of Midterm Elections**: - The outcomes of the midterm elections in late 2026 could influence the energy sector's outlook for 2027, with a Republican majority likely maintaining current supportive policies, while a Democratic shift could lead to changes detrimental to crude oil prices [5][6]. Additional Insights - The call also included detailed financial metrics for various companies in the sector, highlighting their market performance, EV/EBITDA multiples, and free cash flow yields, which are critical for assessing investment opportunities [10]. - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a focus on balancing supply and demand dynamics, improving financial health of companies, and strategic shifts in capital allocation [5][6].