Core Insights - Mortgage rates are influenced by various factors, primarily the 10-year Treasury yield, and a five-year mortgage rate forecast has been developed based on this correlation [1][2] Treasury Yield Forecast - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain around 4.5% for the remainder of 2023, with a gradual decline projected to 4.1% by 2027 [4] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates the Treasury yield to reach 4.1% by the end of 2025, decreasing to 4% in 2026 and stabilizing near 3.9% through 2029 [5] Spread Between Treasury and Mortgage Rates - The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has fluctuated around 2.5 percentage points in recent years, compared to under two percentage points from 2010 to 2020 [5][6] - As of September 11, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.01%, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.35%, resulting in a spread of 2.34 percentage points [6] Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - Based on the Treasury yield forecast and the estimated spread, mortgage rates are projected to be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027 [9] - There is no expectation for mortgage rates to drop significantly in the next five years, although unforeseen economic disruptions could alter this outlook [10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on September 17 is expected to influence mortgage rates, with predictions of two additional cuts by year-end [1] - Mortgage rates are primarily influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to remain stable over the next five years [2][4] - A significant spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates has been observed, impacting future mortgage rate forecasts [5][6] Treasury Yield Forecast - Economists predict the 10-year Treasury yield will stay around 4.5% for the remainder of 2023, gradually declining to 4.1% by 2027 [4][5] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a similar trend, projecting a yield of 4.1% by the end of 2025 and 3.9% by 2029 [5] Mortgage Rate Spread - The historical spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has increased to approximately 2.5 percentage points in recent years, compared to under 2 percentage points from 2010 to 2020 [5][12] - Current examples show a spread of 2.14 percentage points, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16% and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.3% [6] Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - Based on the projected Treasury yields and the estimated spread, mortgage rates are expected to be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027 [9] - Predictions indicate that mortgage rates are unlikely to drop significantly in the next five years, barring unforeseen economic disruptions [10] Historical Context - The average spread between Treasurys and mortgage rates has shifted from approximately 1.7 percentage points in the 2010s to around 2.6 percentage points from 2022 to 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term outlook for mortgage rates in light of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and economic conditions, emphasizing the correlation between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield [1][2]. Treasury Yield Forecast - Economists predict the 10-year Treasury yield will remain around 4.5% for the remainder of 2023, with a gradual decline to 4.1% by 2027 [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs analysts concur with the forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize near 4.1% through 2027 [4]. Mortgage Rate Spread - The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has averaged around 2.5 percentage points in recent years, a significant increase from the under 2 percentage points spread observed from 2010 to 2020 [6]. - As of September 24, 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%, resulting in a 2.14 percentage point spread with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.3% [6]. Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - The five-year mortgage rate forecast estimates rates to be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027, based on the projected Treasury yields and the historical spread [9]. - The article indicates that mortgage rates are not expected to drop significantly in the next five years, barring unforeseen economic disruptions [10].

With expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its rate at next week’s meeting, increasing national debt, and a government shutdown in its fourth week, where are mortgage rates heading long term? Mortgage interest rates are determined by many factors, a primary one being the 10-year Treasury yield. At Yahoo Finance, we’ve designed a five-year mortgage rate forecast, built on a 10-year yield correlation, that provides some insight. Mortgage rates are tuned to the government bond market Mortgage rate ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and potential future cuts, along with a government shutdown, raise questions about the long-term direction of mortgage rates [1][12] - Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year Treasury yield, and a five-year forecast has been developed based on this correlation [2][9] Treasury Yield Forecast - Economists predict the 10-year Treasury yield will remain around 4.5% for the rest of 2023, declining to 4.1% by 2027 [4][5] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a similar trend, projecting a yield of 4.1% by the end of 2025, decreasing to 3.9% by 2029 [5] Mortgage Rate Spread - The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has averaged around 2.5 percentage points in recent years, compared to under 2 percentage points from 2010 to 2020 [6][14] - As of September 24, 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.16%, resulting in a mortgage rate of 6.3% with a spread of 2.14 percentage points [6] Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - The five-year mortgage rate forecast incorporates the predicted Treasury yields and the estimated spread, suggesting mortgage rates will be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027 [11][12] - Current estimates indicate that mortgage rates are not expected to drop significantly in the next five years, barring major economic disruptions [12] Historical Context and AI Insights - Historical averages suggest a spread of approximately 1.7 percentage points during the 2010s, while recent estimates range from 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points [7][14] - The latest AI models suggest using a spread of 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points for future forecasts [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and expectations for further cuts may influence long-term mortgage rates, which are primarily determined by the 10-year Treasury yield [1][4] - A five-year mortgage rate forecast has been developed based on the correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield [2][7] Treasury Yield Forecast - Economists predict the 10-year Treasury yield will remain around 4.5% for the remainder of 2023, declining to 4.1% by 2027 [4][5] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts a similar trend, projecting a yield of 4.1% by the end of 2025, decreasing to approximately 3.9% by 2029 [5] Mortgage Rate Spread - The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has averaged around 2.5 percentage points in recent years, compared to under 2 percentage points from 2010 to 2020 [5][12] - As of September 17, 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.06%, with a corresponding 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.26%, resulting in a spread of 2.2 percentage points [6] Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - Based on the Treasury yield forecasts and the estimated spread, mortgage rates are projected to be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027 [9] - The analysis indicates that mortgage rates are not expected to see drastic declines in the next five years, barring significant economic disruptions [10]