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LAM Research:点评及业绩说明会纪要:收入创历史新高,AI 驱动景气延续,核心工艺持续强化行业地位
Huachuang Securities· 2025-10-24 09:34
Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for LAM Research, anticipating a performance that will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next six months [73]. Core Insights - LAM Research achieved record revenue of $5.324 billion in CY25Q3, representing a year-over-year growth of 27.74% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.95%, surpassing market expectations [3][13]. - The company's non-GAAP gross margin reached 50.6%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year and 0.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong operational efficiency [10][12]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving growth in the semiconductor equipment market, with expectations that every additional $100 billion in data center capital expenditure will lead to approximately $8 billion in semiconductor equipment investment [5][23]. Company Performance Overview Revenue Situation - LAM Research's revenue for CY25Q3 was $5.324 billion, exceeding the guidance midpoint of $52 billion and market consensus of $5.232 billion [3][13]. - Deferred revenue at the end of the quarter was $2.769 billion, slightly up from the previous quarter, indicating ongoing service and system-related transactions [13]. Gross Margin Situation - The non-GAAP gross margin for CY25Q3 was 50.6%, close to the upper end of the previous guidance [10][12]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures reached $185 million in CY25Q3, an increase of approximately $13 million from the previous quarter, primarily for investments in U.S. laboratories and Asian manufacturing facilities [11]. Employee Changes - The company employed approximately 19,400 full-time employees by the end of CY25Q3, an increase of about 400 employees, mainly in R&D and field support teams [15]. Revenue Structure By Business Segment - The equipment segment accounted for 60% of total system revenue, with record growth driven by advanced process investments and spending in mature nodes in mainland China [15]. - The customer support business (CSBG) generated approximately $1.8 billion in revenue, showing slight growth both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year [16]. By Region - In CY25Q3, revenue from mainland China constituted 43% of total revenue, up from 35% in the previous quarter, with local customer investments driving growth [19]. Demand Situation Analysis - The company anticipates a revenue reduction of approximately $200 million in the upcoming quarter due to U.S. export restrictions affecting shipments to mainland China, with an estimated total impact of $600 million for the year [22]. - Global demand for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) is expected to remain strong, with a market size projected to exceed $105 billion in 2025 [22][23]. Technical Progress - LAM Research has made significant advancements in atomic layer deposition (ALD) technology, solidifying its market position with key customers in NAND applications [26]. - The company is also focusing on advanced packaging technologies, with new tools being developed to meet the growing demand in this area [29]. Performance Guidance - For CY2025Q4, LAM Research expects revenue to be around $52 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 48.5% [30].