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Freeport Slashes Its Outlook, And Still Wins Over Analysts
Benzinga· 2025-11-19 18:28
Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan has adjusted its production expectations for the Grasberg mine following an investigation into a mud-flow incident, leading to lower multi-year production guidance while indicating that operational challenges are beginning to ease [1][2]. Production Guidance - The updated production outlook for 2026 includes an expected output of 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 0.9 million ounces of gold, which is 8% and 14% lower than previous forecasts [4]. - For 2027, the guidance is set at 1.5 billion pounds of copper and 1.2 million ounces of gold, reflecting reductions of 15% and 19% respectively compared to earlier models [5]. Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure guidance for 2026 has been reduced to $4.1 billion from a prior estimate of $5.2 billion, indicating deferred spending plans [5]. Analyst Revisions - Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Sector Outperform, citing improved multi-year visibility and a strong balance sheet despite lowering his 12-month price forecast to $47 from $51 [1][2][3]. - Morgan Stanley's Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating while lowering the price target from $46 to $44, and BMO Capital Markets analyst Katja Jancic reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target adjustment from $48 to $47 [6]. Market Reaction - Following the updates, Freeport-McMoRan shares experienced a rise of 3.42%, trading at $41.37 [6].