Net Dollar Retention

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Will Weakening Net Dollar Retention Slow MNDY's Enterprise Gains?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-15 17:46
Core Insights - monday.com (MNDY) is experiencing challenges with customer retention, impacting its enterprise expansion strategy as Net Dollar Retention (NDR) decreased to 111% in Q2 FY2025 from 112% in Q1, with expectations for Q3 at 110% [1][2][5] Customer Retention and Revenue Impact - The company's revenue is primarily subscription-based, making NDR a crucial indicator of future performance, reflecting the expansion or contraction of recurring revenue within the existing customer base [2] - A sustained decline in NDR indicates weaker expansion dynamics, which directly affects the company's ability to grow its revenue [2][5] Enterprise Strategy and Adoption Challenges - monday workOS is designed for various workflows, but the enterprise strategy relies on customers adopting more modules over time rather than just renewing existing seats [3] - High-value customer cohorts with annual recurring revenues above $50,000 and $100,000 have stabilized, indicating slower upselling and cross-workflow adoption [3][9] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $312.06 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 24.33%, which is a slowdown from the 27% growth in Q2 [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Compared to competitors like Atlassian and Asana, monday.com is more vulnerable due to its narrower reliance on expansion within existing accounts, which heightens risks if retention continues to decline [6] Share Price and Valuation - MNDY shares have decreased by 18.5% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry and the Computer and Technology sector, which increased by 22.6% and 18.8%, respectively [7] - The stock is trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.87X, higher than the industry average of 5.82X, indicating a less favorable valuation [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MNDY's Q3 2025 earnings is 89 cents per share, reflecting a 4.71% year-over-year growth, with a recent upward revision of three cents [13]