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ServiceNow vs. Atlassian: Which ITSM Provider Has Greater Upside?
ZACKSยท 2025-04-02 15:55
Core Insights - The competitive landscape in IT Service Management (ITSM) is evolving due to the rise of agentic AI, with predictions that by 2029, 80% of general customer issues will be resolved autonomously, leading to a 30% cost reduction [2] Company Analysis: ServiceNow (NOW) - ServiceNow's Now Platform integrates Now Assist, its AI solution, enhancing productivity across various domains such as CRM, HR, and IT [3] - The company has a strong partner ecosystem, including Amazon, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and DXC Technology, which aids in expanding its offerings [4] - As of Q4 2024, ServiceNow had 2,109 customers with over $1 million in annual contract value, reflecting a 14% year-over-year growth [5] - ServiceNow's subscription revenue is projected to be between $12.635 billion and $12.675 billion for 2025, indicating an 18.5% to 19% increase from 2024 [12] - The consensus estimate for ServiceNow's 2025 earnings has declined by three cents to $16.21 per share, suggesting a 16.45% growth over 2024 [15] - ServiceNow shares have dropped 23.5% year-to-date, impacted by unfavorable forex and a back-end loaded federal business [9][12] Company Analysis: Atlassian (TEAM) - Atlassian has integrated AI features across its major products, resulting in over one million monthly active users engaging with these features daily [6] - The company reported a 40% year-over-year increase in sales for its Premium and Enterprise editions, driven by higher-value AI-infused products [6] - Atlassian's partnership with Microsoft-backed OpenAI enhances its product capabilities, particularly in Confluence and Jira Service Management [7] - The company closed a record number of deals worth over $1 million in Q2 of fiscal 2025, indicating strong enterprise penetration [8] - Atlassian expects revenues to grow by 18.5% to 19% year-over-year in fiscal 2025, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 84.5% and an operating margin of 23.5% [13] - The consensus estimate for Atlassian's 2025 earnings is $3.47 per share, reflecting an 18.43% increase over fiscal 2024 [14] Valuation Comparison - Both companies are considered overvalued, with Atlassian trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 9.6X, compared to ServiceNow's 12.23X [17] Conclusion - Atlassian's strategy of leveraging AI for enterprise growth positions it favorably, while ServiceNow faces potential volatility in its growth trajectory due to external factors [20]