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从宠儿到弃子:Atlassian的至暗时刻,还是逆向布局的良机?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 10:27
Core Viewpoint - Atlassian has transitioned from being a "Wall Street darling" to a "neglected stock" due to investor concerns that AI may lead to a slowdown in company growth, despite a significant drop in stock price of approximately 40% this year, raising questions about whether this decline is an overreaction by the market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of "vibe coding," where AI can generate code through prompts, is a key factor driving market sentiment, as it lowers barriers for non-technical entrepreneurs to create applications, potentially reducing the demand for software engineers [4]. - While Atlassian and GitLab have seen significant stock declines, competitors like JFrog and ServiceNow have not experienced similar impacts, indicating that market movements are often driven by sentiment rather than rational analysis [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Despite the stock price decline, Atlassian's growth rate remains strong, with a 26% year-over-year growth in its core cloud products for Q4, an increase from 25% in Q3 [5]. - Atlassian's recent acquisitions, including a $1 billion purchase of developer productivity tool DX and $610 million for AI-focused browser companies Dia and Arc, are aimed at sustaining growth and enhancing competitiveness in the AI landscape [9]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, Atlassian projects a revenue growth of approximately 18%, with cloud revenue expected to grow by about 21% [11]. - The company's current valuation metrics suggest a reasonable valuation multiple, with an enterprise value of $35.98 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 34 for FY2026, indicating potential for investment opportunities [10][14].
3 Beaten-Down Growth Stocks That Could Soar More Than 30%, According to Wall Street
The Motley Fool· 2025-10-08 07:45
What goes down can go up again.It would be great if you could buy a stock that always moves higher without any pullbacks along the way. But that's not realistic. Even the best stocks have experienced times when they fell significantly. However, those periods presented excellent buying opportunities for patient investors.If you're looking for examples in today's market, you're in luck. Here are three beaten-down growth stocks that could soar more than 30% over the next 12 months, according to Wall Street.1. ...
Wells Fargo Says Agentic Coding Is Fueling a New AI Boom — Here Are 3 Stocks Poised to Benefit
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-07 10:15
HubSpot built its reputation on the innovative nature of its toolset. Users could automate a wide range of marketing functions, optimize ad placement, build newsletters and publish content, even build chatbots. In recent years, these tasks have proven highly amenable to AI enhancement, and HubSpot was quick to see that potential. The company developed Breeze, its AI assistant designed to work within the HubSpot platform.We’ll start with a look at the marketing software platform HubSpot. HubSpot has been in ...
Jim Cramer on Atlassian: “I no longer recommend the stock of TEAM”
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-04 21:01
Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer put under the microscope. A caller asked for an opinion on the stock, noting its sharp decline from a 52-week high of 325 to a low of 150 and expressing interest in buying in. Cramer replied: “No, see, TEAM is being hurt by the same thing. It’s hurting a lot of this, the other companies in the software business. People feel that they can create their own product that’s just as good as TEAM using artificial intelligence. That’s why I no lo ...
Bernstein SocGen Affirms ‘Outperform’ Rating on Atlassian Corp (TEAM) on Acquisitions Boost
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-03 08:47
Atlassian Corp (NASDAQ:TEAM) is one of the best beaten-down technology stocks to buy, according to analysts. On September 24, analysts at Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock and a $296 price target. Bernstein SocGen Affirms ‘Outperform’ Rating on Atlassian Corp (TEAM) on Acquisitions Boost SFIO CRACHO/Shutterstock.com While the bullish stance comes on the stock pulling back by about 34% year to date, Bernstein SoGen remains bullish about the company’s prospects, owing t ...
1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy Before It Soars By 50%, According to Wall Street
The Motley Fool· 2025-09-27 08:29
Core Insights - Artificial intelligence is significantly enhancing Atlassian's software products, leading to accelerated revenue growth [1][8] - Analysts are optimistic about Atlassian's stock, with an average price target suggesting a potential upside of 50% over the next 12 to 18 months [2][13] Product and Technology - Atlassian's popular products, Jira and Confluence, are being transformed by AI, with Jira expanding beyond software development to various workflows [4] - The newly launched AI platform, Rovo, integrates with Jira, Confluence, and third-party applications, featuring tools like AI-powered search and custom AI assistants [5][6] Financial Performance - Atlassian reported a record revenue of $1.38 billion in Q4 of fiscal 2025, marking a 22% increase year-over-year, the fastest growth rate in a year [8] - The annual recurring revenue from premium and enterprise plans surged by 40% year-over-year, indicating increased spending on AI products [9] Cost and Profitability - Operating costs rose by 20% year-over-year to $1.17 billion, leading to a net loss of $23.9 million in Q4 on a GAAP basis [10] - On a non-GAAP basis, Atlassian achieved a profit of $259.1 million in Q4, a 51% improvement from the previous year [11] Market Sentiment - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 8.2, significantly lower than its peak of 50 in 2021, indicating a more reasonable valuation [14] - Atlassian aims to grow its annual revenue to $10 billion by fiscal 2029, which would be nearly double its fiscal 2025 revenue of $5.2 billion [16]
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-19 20:01
Core Thesis - Atlassian Corporation is viewed positively due to its strong market position and strategic pivot towards AI and enterprise expansion, despite recent share price declines [1][6]. Company Overview - Atlassian's products, such as Jira and Confluence, are integral to the workflows of over 300,000 companies, including major organizations like NASA, Netflix, and Airbnb, creating a robust ecosystem that is hard for customers to leave [2]. - The company has experienced a share price decline of over 30% year-to-date, attributed to concerns over margin compression, competition, and a cautious outlook [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Atlassian is shifting its focus towards AI, enterprise growth, and improved collaboration, with initiatives like the AI agent Rovo and the acquisition of Loom to enhance user engagement [3]. - The company is also pursuing enterprise-focused bundles and has achieved FedRAMP authorization to secure high-value contracts [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 FY2025, Atlassian's cloud revenue increased by 25% year-over-year to $1.36 billion, with free cash flow of $638 million, indicating strong underlying economics despite GAAP margin pressures [4]. - The stock is trading at a Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow ratio of 29.7, suggesting potential upside relative to its intrinsic value [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is recognized for its product-led growth model and high switching costs, which contribute to a durable economic moat [3]. - Despite a 16.4% depreciation in stock price since previous coverage, the company's resilient growth and cash generation remain intact, supporting a bullish outlook [5][6].
monday.com plunges 12.5% YTD: Should You Hold or Fold the stock?
ZACKS· 2025-09-19 15:55
Core Insights - monday.com (MNDY) shares have declined 12.5% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Internet-Software industry and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which appreciated by 24.2% and 19.8% respectively [1] Financial Performance - MNDY reported revenue of $299 million in Q2 2025, reflecting a 27% year-over-year growth, but this indicates a slowdown compared to previous quarters [4] - Net dollar retention (NDR) weakened to 111% in Q2, down from higher levels in the prior year, with the third-quarter NDR estimated at 110.11%, indicating moderating expansion within existing customers [4] - Non-GAAP operating margin contracted to 15% in Q2 from 16% a year ago, with expectations of further compression to 11-12% in Q3 [6][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 earnings is 89 cents per share, implying a modest 4.71% year-over-year growth, suggesting rising costs are not translating into significant earnings momentum [7] Cost Structure - Research and development expenses reached 20% of revenues in Q2, up from 16% a year earlier, driven by investments in AI initiatives and CRM expansion [5][8] - Sales and marketing expenses remained high at 47% of revenue, reflecting the costs associated with pursuing enterprise customers in a competitive market [5] Competitive Landscape - The collaboration software market is highly competitive, with strong resistance from established platforms like Atlassian, Asana, and Freshworks, which are enhancing their offerings with AI features [9] - These competitors are embedding AI into their ecosystems, making it challenging for MNDY to convert investments into sustainable revenue growth or margin improvement [9] Valuation Concerns - MNDY shares are considered overvalued, trading at a forward P/E of 46.29X, higher than the industry average of 40.16X and peers like Atlassian (39.14X), Asana (46.11X), and Freshworks (20.74X) [10][11] - The premium valuation is increasingly difficult to justify given the deteriorating fundamentals and weakening customer retention [11] Conclusion - MNDY is facing challenges with slowing growth, weakening net dollar retention, and narrowing margins, while elevated spending is not leading to stronger earnings [13] - Competitive pressures are limiting the company's ability to achieve sustainable returns, and the current premium valuation raises concerns for investors [13]
Analysts Say AI Is Not the ‘Death Knell’ for Atlassian (TEAM) Stock
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-17 15:27
Core Viewpoint - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is highlighted as a key AI stock to monitor, with Guggenheim initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $225, indicating a potential upside of 30% [1][3] Company Performance and Strategy - Atlassian has over 300,000 customers for its collaboration products like Jira and Confluence, and is expanding into service management and AI workflows, which supports its "System of Work" strategy [3] - The company is expected to achieve a long-term target of $10 billion in revenue by FY29, with current penetration of its global addressable market at most 20% [4] Market Sentiment and Growth Projections - Despite concerns regarding AI's impact on entry-level job growth, particularly for software developers, the global developer headcount is still rising, suggesting continued user growth for Atlassian [2][4] - Cloud revenue is projected to grow by 25% in FY26, with total revenue re-accelerating to 22%, surpassing consensus estimates [4]
Morgan Stanley Maintains Buy on Atlassian Corporation (TEAM)
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-16 15:42
Group 1 - Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) is recognized as one of the best NASDAQ stocks to buy, with significant upside potential, supported by a Buy rating from Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss and a price target of $320 [1] - The company's transition to a cloud-first model is expected to enhance revenue and operating margins starting in fiscal 2026, as it plans to phase out Data Center products by March 2029 [2] - Strong growth in the Cloud segment is anticipated, with projections of mid-teens growth beyond fiscal 2026, aided by the launch of the Atlassian Ascend program to facilitate customer migration from Data Center to Cloud [3] Group 2 - Atlassian Corporation specializes in software development for team collaboration and project management, with key products including Jira, Confluence, and Jira Service Management [4]