智通财经APP获悉，2月24日，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文介绍全国商用车国内保险特征—2026年1月。根据国家金融局交强险数据，国内商用车交强险数 据的2025年商用车强势增长。由于新能源车强势增长和报废更新政策促进车辆更新，2025年新能源商用车整体呈现快速拉升的良好局面。今年商用车1月 增长较强，1月商用车国内销量实现20万台，同比增19%，环比降34%，今年创出近几年1月新高的良好水平。 在2025年末政策翘尾后，2026年1月份新能源商用车达到5万台，同比增长63%，环比下降64%.依旧保持良好走势。 从2019-2021年，整个新能源商用车的渗透率在3%左右水平，2022年达到9%，2023年达到11%，2024年全年达到20%，2025年就达到渗透率29%的良好水 平，体现了新能源商用车强势增长良好态势。2026年1月商用车新能源渗透率26%， 较同期增长7个点，相对较强。 26年1月的卡车新能源渗透率21%，客车新能源渗透率54%，较同期均有大幅提升。其中重卡达到34%、轻卡达到20%，高油耗高税收的物流车型新能源渗 透率提升较大。重卡电动化带来储能效果的体现，有效稳定了电网的用电负荷。 1、 全 ...

Summary of the China Passenger Vehicle Monthly Chartbook - December 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **passenger vehicle (PV)** and **new energy vehicle (NEV)** industry in China, highlighting trends in retail and wholesale volumes, inventory levels, pricing, and battery prices [1][2][5]. Key Industry Trends - **NEV Retail Growth**: NEV retail growth decelerated to **+3% year-over-year (yoy)** in December 2025, down from **+4% yoy** in November 2025, attributed to decreasing subsidies [1][5]. - **ICE Decline**: Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales further deteriorated, showing a decline of **-31% yoy** in December, compared to **-22% yoy** in November, with higher ICE inventory levels [1][5]. - **Export Growth**: Exports of passenger vehicles (PV) and NEVs showed significant strength, with growth rates of **+47% yoy** and **+164% yoy** respectively in November, compared to **+41% yoy** and **+67% yoy** in October [1][5]. Detailed Industry Data - **December 2025 Highlights**: - PV retail sales decreased by **-14% yoy** and increased by **+2% month-over-month (mom)**. - Wholesale sales for PV decreased by **-9% yoy** and **-7% mom**. - NEV retail sales increased by **+3% yoy** and **+1% mom**, while wholesale sales increased by **+3% yoy** but decreased by **-8% mom**. - NEV retail penetration reached **59.1%**, an increase of **9.7 percentage points (pp) yoy**, while wholesale penetration was **56.0%**, up **6.8 pp yoy** [5][6]. Pricing and Inventory Trends - **Inventory**: NEV inventory remained stable, while ICE inventory levels increased [5][6]. - **Pricing**: Dealer discounts for both NEVs and ICE vehicles narrowed month-over-month, with one NEV manufacturer implementing a price cut [6]. - **Battery Prices**: Lithium cobalt oxide (LCE) battery prices increased by **+32% mom**, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery prices remained flat [6]. Company Highlights - **BYD**: - Delivered **133,000 units** of export volume in December 2025, maintaining strong overseas expansion momentum. - Expected overseas sales volume to reach between **1.5 million to 3.5 million** units from 2026 to 2035, driven by NEV penetration and product competitiveness. - Forecasted **30% earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR)** from 2025 to 2028, with overseas profit contribution expected to rise from **21% in 2024 to 60% by 2028** [6][7]. - **XPeng**: - Delivered **32,000 units** of domestic retail volume in December 2025, reflecting a **-5% yoy** decline but a **+2% mom** increase. - Market share remained relatively stable with a **-0.2 pp** change. - Blended transaction price increased by **5% yoy** and **4% mom**, attributed to a favorable model mix [7]. Future Outlook - Domestic PV and NEV volume growth is expected to slow down in 2026, with projections of **-2% yoy** for PV and **+11% yoy** for NEV, compared to **+4% yoy** and **+18% yoy** in 2025. - Exports are anticipated to be a bright spot for the industry, particularly for companies like BYD, which is well-positioned for overseas exposure [6][7]. Conclusion The December 2025 report indicates a challenging environment for the domestic PV market, particularly for ICE vehicles, while NEVs continue to show growth albeit at a slower pace. Export opportunities remain robust, particularly for leading companies like BYD and XPeng, which are expected to capitalize on international markets in the coming years [1][5][6][7].

Group 1: Global Market and New Energy Penetration Forecast - The overall global passenger car sales are projected to reach 9,015 million units by 2026, with a growth rate of 1.7% year-on-year [16] - In Europe, the new energy penetration rate is expected to exceed 30% by 2026, driven by the launch of affordable models and the reintroduction of subsidies [2][34] - Southeast Asia is anticipated to see a new energy penetration rate of 19% in 2026, with significant contributions from Chinese automakers and local manufacturers [2][37] Group 2: Chinese Automakers' Global Market Share Forecast - The potential export market for Chinese automakers is estimated at 27 million units, with an export potential of approximately 9.08 million units by 2025 [3][5] - The market share ceiling for Chinese brands in regions prioritizing local brand development is expected to be lower compared to markets that do not emphasize local brand cultivation [5] - By 2025, the export share of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 42%, with BYD being a major contributor to this growth [3] Group 3: Export Predictions for Automakers - BYD is expected to have a high market match across most regions, particularly in Oceania and the UK, where there are minimal structural constraints [9] - Chery's core markets with the highest external environment match include Russia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, while the EU market presents more constraints [9] - Great Wall Motors is well-positioned in markets with stable demand for SUVs and pickups, particularly in the Middle East and Africa [9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investment in automakers with mature overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, specifically recommending BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Chery [11] - The export volume of various automakers is expected to increase significantly, with Chery projected to have an export share of 42% by 2026 [10] - The overall export volume for Chinese automakers is forecasted to reach 745,000 units by 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13% [12]

周度更新：4.21-4.27，乘用车总量45.2万辆，环比增长16.73%，新能源23.8 ，环比增长16.03%，新能源 渗透率52.58% CATL ：储能市场增长高于动力 添加半仙微信，备注"进群"，邀请你加入锂电行业社群，获得行业最新动态、行业干货报 告和精准人脉。 本公众号基于分享的目的转载，转载文章的版权归原作者或原公众号所有，如有涉及侵权请及时告知，我们将予以核实并删除 往期推荐 主机厂电芯采购：兼顾性能和成本 比亚迪出海：发力东南亚 加入社群 ...