Group 1 - New home sales remained stable in October, showing no significant change after an increase in September [1] - The Census Bureau reported that new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 737,000 in October [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose by +0.26%, supported by the yen's weakness, which fell to a 1.5-year low against the dollar [1] - US October new home sales fell -0.1% month-over-month to 737,000, which was stronger than the expected 715,000 [3] - US December core consumer prices were unchanged from November at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [2][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Expectations - The markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - Concerns over Fed independence have arisen following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding potential criminal charges related to his testimony, which may impact market sentiment [2][5] Group 3: Liquidity and Future Fed Chair Speculation - The Federal Reserve has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills to boost liquidity in the financial system [5] - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett seen as the most dovish candidate [5]

Group 1 - Sales in October last year decreased to 737,000 from 738,000 in September, indicating a slight decline [1] - However, sales showed an increase compared to a downwardly revised figure of 711,000 in August, reflecting a recovery trend [1]

Market Trends - Initial trends from the U.S. Futures Index indicate a potential lower opening for Wall Street, with Dow futures down 61.00 points, S&P 500 futures down 6.25 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 48.00 points [1] - The U.S. major averages closed positive on Monday, with the Dow rising 86.13 points (0.2%) to 49,590.29, Nasdaq climbing 62.56 points (0.3%) to 23,733.90, and S&P 500 increasing 10.99 points (0.2%) to 6,977.27 [2] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is expected to rise by 0.3%, compared to a previous increase of 0.2% [2] - New Home Sales for September are anticipated to be 710K [2] Treasury Auctions and Discussions - A 30-year Treasury Bond auction is scheduled for 1.00 pm ET [3] - A four-month Treasury bill announcement will take place at 11.00 am ET, and discussions on U.S. monetary policy will be held by St. Louis Fed Bank President Alberto Musalem at 10.00 am ET [4] Asian Market Performance - Asian shares mostly finished up, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 240 points (0.90%) to close at 26,848.47, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 jumping 1,627 points (3.1%) to close at 53,567.00 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.64% to finish at 4,138.76 [4]

Housing Market Analysis - New home sales experienced a month-over-month increase of over 20% due to decreasing mortgage rates and strong demand [1] - Housing data tends to improve when mortgage rates drop below 664 basis points (664 bps) and go down to 600 bps (6%) [2] - Purchase application data has shown the best performance in eight weeks [2] - New home sales have remained within a range for approximately seven to eight years [4] Mortgage Rate Impact - The housing market's movement tends to end when rates reverse and rise above 700 bps (7%) [3] - The key factor is whether mortgage rates can remain near 600 bps (6%) long enough to potentially stimulate growth in housing permits and starts [3] - The Federal Reserve (The Fed) might be concerned about a housing market recovery, as it could lead to increased transactions and consumption, complicating economic balancing [4][5] - Duration is key; repeated fluctuations in rates will discourage builders from issuing new permits [6] Builder Perspective - Smaller builders face greater risks compared to larger, publicly traded builders, even though the gross margins of the latter have decreased [7] - Builders are efficient sellers focused on making profits and are actively working to sell their products [8][9][10] - Completed units of sales are at levels that historically prompt builders to reduce construction [9] Labor Market and Permits - Residential construction jobs have been declining for the past four months, and specially contracted jobs for five to six months [7] - The softening of labor data is a factor contributing to the mortgage rates being around 600 bps (6%) [13] - If housing permits can grow again, concerns about the single-family labor market would be alleviated [12]

But first, new home sales just crossing. Diana Ol has those numbers for us. Diana, David, a massive beat on new home sales.800,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate in August. The street was looking for 650. This is up 20.5% from July and up 15.4% from August of 2024.Now, we've been talking about mortgage rates, of course, uh, forever and they didn't come down in August. These numbers are based on signed contracts. So, people out shopping in August when the 30-year fix had not started its steep drop that ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are mixed but showing signs of weakness, following record high closes on the S&P 500, with profit-taking being a potential factor [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up by 42 points (+0.18%), while the Dow is down 300 points (-0.67%) due to UnitedHealth's DOJ probe, and the S&P 500 is nearly flat at -0.004% [2] Job Market Data - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased for six consecutive weeks, with the latest figure at 217K, the lowest in 14 weeks, down from 250K in early June [3] - Continuing Claims are reported at 1.955 million, slightly above the previous week's revised figure of 1.951 million, indicating a stall just below the 2 million mark [4] Q2 Earnings Reports - American Airlines (AAL) reported earnings of 95 cents per share, exceeding expectations by +20.25%, but shares fell -6% due to warnings of softer demand leading to a Q3 loss [5] - Honeywell (HON) surpassed earnings expectations with $2.75 per share, a +4.2% increase, and revenues of $10.35 billion, but shares are down -2.7% as the company plans to split into three segments by 2026 [6] - Union Pacific (UNP) reported earnings of $3.03 per share, beating expectations by +4.84%, with revenues of $6.2 billion, but shares are down -3% ahead of the opening bell [7] Economic Indicators - Upcoming S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI for July are expected to show slight growth in Services to 53.2 and a dip in Manufacturing to 52.7, both remaining above the growth threshold of 50 [8] - New Home Sales for June are anticipated to rise to 645K units, up from 623K the previous month, although existing home sales were disappointing, falling below 4 million for the first time since September [9] Future Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings reports will continue after the market closes, with Intel (INTC) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) among the companies set to report [10]

Market Performance - Three of the four major indexes saw gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing three consecutive up-days. Tesla's stock rose by 28% over the past week and 3.3% today, although it remains down 29% year-to-date [1] - The Dow was flat at +0.01%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.16%. The Nasdaq outperformed with an increase of 83 points, or 0.46%. The small-cap Russell 2000 declined by 14 points, or 0.66% [2] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board reported a decline in Consumer Confidence, falling 7.75% month-over-month to a headline of 92.9, below the expected 95.0 and down from the revised 100.1 of the previous month. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline [3] - The Expectations Index dropped by 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years. This decline is reflected in significant stock price drops for specialty retailers, such as Abercrombie & Fitch down 48% and Victoria's Secret down 50% year-to-date [4] Housing Market - New Home Sales for February were reported at 676K, slightly below the estimate of 677K but up from the revised 664K in January. This indicates a stable housing market, although the Case-Shiller Home Prices data, which is a month behind, will need to be monitored for further trends [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Anticipation for new Durable Goods Orders for February, expected to show a month-over-month cooling. Additionally, earnings results from Dollar Tree will be announced ahead of the market opening [6]