Next - generation immuno - oncology (IO) therapeutics

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中国生物技术:下一代免疫肿瘤(IO)领域的机遇;管线更新及目标价变动-China Biotechnology_ Opportunities in Next-generation IO Space; Pipeline Updates and TP Changes
2025-07-30 02:33
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapeutics, which include bi/trispecific PD-1/VEGF, PD-1/IL-2, and PD-1/VEGF/CTLA4 candidates that have the potential to significantly alter cancer treatment landscapes [1][11][19]. Market Potential - The total addressable market (TAM) for next-generation IO products is estimated to exceed US$62 billion, driven by the expiration of key patents like Keytruda and Opdivo in 2028 [2][19][24]. - The current market for PD-1 IO therapies is projected to reach over US$50 billion, with significant growth expected as new candidates enter the market [11][19]. Company-Specific Insights Akeso Inc (9926.HK) - Akeso's ivonescimab has demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) in the HARMONi-2/HARMONi-6 trials, with promising overall survival (OS) data [2][29]. - Target price (TP) raised to HK$185 from HK$98, reflecting strong revenue growth and a robust pipeline [5][31]. - The company has achieved significant revenue of Rmb2.1 billion in 2024 and has transitioned from a high-risk rating to a buy rating [5][31]. Innovent (1801.HK) - Innovent's IBI363 has shown promising data in IO-treated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and is expected to launch pivotal trials in 2H25 [2][32][33]. - TP increased to HK$105 from HK$90, with a focus on next-generation IO and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) combinations [5][34]. 3SBio (1530.HK) - 3SBio is developing SSGJ-707 (PD-1/VEGF) and is expected to present more data in upcoming meetings [27]. - TP raised to HK$36 from HK$21, reflecting increased peak sales forecasts [5][28]. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK) - Junshi is conducting Phase 2 studies for JS207, with data expected in 3Q25 [35]. - TP adjusted to HK$32 from HK$17, indicating growth potential [5][36]. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - Sino Biopharmaceutical announced the acquisition of LaNova Medicines to enhance its innovative pipeline [37]. - TP increased to HK$8.80 from HK$6.20, reflecting progress in drug development [5][38]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - There are numerous business development (BD) opportunities as multinational corporations (MNCs) seek to replenish their pipelines with new drugs [3][24]. - The expiration of patents for leading IO products creates a competitive landscape, necessitating innovation and strategic partnerships [3][24]. Clinical Data and Progress - Promising clinical data for next-generation IO candidates, including head-to-head comparisons, have garnered investor interest [11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical data in determining market share and probability of success (PoS) for each candidate [4][18]. Conclusion - The next-generation IO space presents significant investment opportunities, with several companies showing promising clinical data and strong market potential. Adjustments in target prices reflect the anticipated growth and success of these candidates in the evolving oncology landscape [5][18][19].