Summary of Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences - **Established**: 2012 - **Focus**: Commercialization-stage biotech company specializing in oncology and autoimmune indications with over 15 clinical-stage assets [11][29] Key Industry Insights - **Market Performance**: Junshi's share price increased by 167% year-to-date, outperforming HSBIO's 100% increase [2] - **Valuation**: The price target is set at HK$34.70, reflecting a risk-adjusted P/peak sales of 2.4x, in line with peer median [5][7] Core Product Insights - **Toripalimab (PD-1)**: - Remains the primary revenue driver, with sales of Rmb954 million in H125, up 42% YoY [4][29] - Expected to exceed Rmb2 billion in 2025 due to new indications included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) [29] - Anticipated sales growth driven by additional indications such as perioperative NSCLC and 1L TNBC [9][29] Clinical Development Highlights - **JS207 (PD-1/VEGF)**: - Key candidate with eight phase-2 trials initiated, covering various cancers [3][12] - Early-stage data expected by late 2025/early 2026, crucial for demonstrating its potential [3][15] - Positioned as a strong competitor in the PD-1/VEGF field [3][12] - **Other Candidates**: - **JS015 (DKK1)**: First-in-class DKK1 in phase-2, showing promising early data in colorectal and gastric cancers [19][20] - **JS203 (CD20/CD3)**: Early efficacy signals with 80% ORR in phase-1 trials, pivotal trials expected to start in 2026 [22][23] - **Tifcemalimab (BTLA)**: Global first-in-class candidate in phase-3 for limited-stage small cell lung cancer, with data read-out expected in late 2026 [16][17] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected sales CAGR of 20% from 2025 to 2027, primarily driven by toripalimab and new NRDL inclusions [4][9] - **Profitability Timeline**: Expected to reach breakeven by 2027, with net earnings improving from losses in the coming years [6][29] Risks and Considerations - **Clinical Data Dependency**: The success of multiple candidates, especially JS207, hinges on upcoming clinical data readouts [15][28] - **Market Sentiment**: Positive market sentiment exists for Junshi's potential business development (BD) opportunities, but actual performance will depend on clinical outcomes [15][28] Conclusion - Junshi is positioned for growth with a strong pipeline and key revenue drivers, particularly toripalimab. However, the company must navigate the challenges of clinical data validation and market competition to realize its full potential.

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered the 2025 profit forecast for Junshi Biosciences (01877) from a loss of 662 million yuan to a loss of 917 million yuan, and introduced a 2026 profit forecast of a loss of 315 million yuan, while maintaining an outperform rating due to positive R&D progress in PD-1/VEGF and DKK1 monoclonal antibodies, raising the target price by 101% to HKD 36.98, indicating a 21.1% upside from the current stock price [1] Group 1 - The company's 1H25 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with operating income of 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 413 million yuan, a reduction in loss of 232 million yuan year-on-year [2] - The sales revenue of Tuoyi in the domestic market reached 954 million yuan in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with 12 approved indications in China and approvals in 40 countries and regions, indicating a gradual realization of global commercialization value [3] Group 2 - The PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody JS207 is in Phase II clinical trials for various cancers, showing competitive advantages in tumor efficacy due to its unique molecular design [4] - The DKK1 monoclonal antibody has released clinical data for colorectal and gastric cancers at the 2025 AACR and is also in Phase II clinical trials, leading in global R&D progress [4] Group 3 - The company has established an innovative product pipeline covering five major therapeutic areas with over 50 products, advancing nearly 30 clinical studies, with expectations for several products to enter critical registration clinical trials by 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Junshi Biosciences' (01877) 2025 profit forecast from a loss of 6.62 billion to a loss of 9.17 billion, while introducing a 2026 profit forecast of a loss of 3.15 billion, citing the need for further funding for R&D pipeline advancement [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 revenue reached 1.168 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with a net loss of 413 million, which is a reduction in loss by 232 million compared to the previous year [2] - The revenue slightly exceeded CICC's expectations, while the reduction in loss was in line with expectations [2] Group 2: Product Sales Growth - Sales revenue of Tuoyi in the domestic market for 1H25 was 954 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42% [3] - Tuoyi has received approval for 12 indications in China and is approved in 40 countries and regions, indicating a gradual realization of its global commercialization value [3] - The company anticipates accelerated global sales of Tuoyi as new indications enter the market and are included in insurance coverage [3] Group 3: Pipeline Development - The company is focusing on the potential of its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody (JS207) and DKK1 monoclonal antibody, which are in advanced clinical stages [4] - JS207 is currently in Phase II clinical trials for various cancers and is expected to have a competitive advantage due to its unique molecular design and anti-tumor efficacy [4] - DKK1 monoclonal antibody has shown promising clinical data for colorectal and gastric cancers and is also in Phase II clinical trials [4] Group 4: Innovation and Clinical Research - The company has established a pipeline covering five major therapeutic areas with over 50 innovative products, advancing nearly 30 products in clinical research [5] - Upcoming submissions for market approval are expected for products like subcutaneous Teriprizumab and IL-17 monoclonal antibody, with several others anticipated to enter critical registration clinical trials by 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Junshi Bioscience (688180.SH/1877.HK) reported significant improvement in operational performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.168 billion yuan, a 49% year-on-year increase, and a 36% reduction in net loss to 413 million yuan, indicating enhanced sustainability in operations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Junshi Bioscience achieved drug sales revenue of 1.059 billion yuan, also a 49% increase year-on-year, reflecting strengthened commercialization capabilities [1] - The core product, Toripalimab (Tuoyi®), generated sales revenue of 954 million yuan in the domestic market, marking a 42% year-on-year growth [1] - As of the end of Q2, the company had a total of 3.507 billion yuan in cash and financial assets, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Group 2: Product Development and Market Expansion - Toripalimab's inclusion in the National Medical Insurance Directory expanded to 10 indications, with new approvals for the 11th and 12th indications in mainland China [1] - The product has been approved for sale in 40 countries and regions across four continents, including recent approvals in Australia, Singapore, UAE, and Kuwait [1][7] - The company has established commercial partnerships in over 80 countries, enhancing its global commercialization network [6] Group 3: R&D and Pipeline Progress - Junshi Bioscience increased its R&D investment to 706 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase, focusing on high-potential projects [8] - The company is advancing its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody (JS207) in Phase II clinical trials, targeting various cancers [9] - The company is also developing JS213, a PD-1/IL-2 dual functional antibody, currently in I phase clinical trials [9] - The innovative research institute was established to consolidate resources for R&D, enhancing operational efficiency [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [12][14]. Core Insights - Junshi Biosciences is one of the earliest innovative biotech companies in China, with a strong focus on innovation and a robust pipeline that is expected to enter a harvest phase soon. The company is experiencing a sales acceleration in its existing business, with multiple innovative assets entering Phase III clinical trials, indicating a potential turning point in its fundamentals [4][9][12]. - The core product, Toripalimab, is projected to achieve sales of 1.501 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 66% year-on-year growth. The subcutaneous formulation of Toripalimab is currently in Phase III clinical trials, which, upon approval, is expected to further solidify its market position [9][12]. - The company has over 50 products in its pipeline, covering various therapeutic areas, including oncology, autoimmune diseases, chronic metabolic diseases, neurological disorders, and infectious diseases. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for the company [9][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Junshi Biosciences, established in December 2012, is an innovative pharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapies. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018 and on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2020 [9][22]. Sales and Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.948 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.281 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses. The existing business is entering a phase of explosive growth, driven by the expansion of indications for Toripalimab and the launch of new products [33][35]. Pipeline and Clinical Development - Junshi Biosciences has a rich early-stage pipeline with comprehensive technology platforms. Key assets such as JS203, JS107, JS207, and JT002 are expected to advance to Phase III clinical trials soon. The company is also exploring various combination therapies to enhance the potential of its PD-1/VEGF dual antibody product, JS207 [10][11][51]. - The report highlights the potential of several innovative drug assets that require re-evaluation of their value, particularly JS107, JS207, and JS015, which are positioned favorably in the competitive landscape [10][12][40]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.681 billion yuan, 3.673 billion yuan, and 5.479 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected to improve significantly by 2027 [12][33].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapeutics, which include bi/trispecific PD-1/VEGF, PD-1/IL-2, and PD-1/VEGF/CTLA4 candidates that have the potential to significantly alter cancer treatment landscapes [1][11][19]. Market Potential - The total addressable market (TAM) for next-generation IO products is estimated to exceed US$62 billion, driven by the expiration of key patents like Keytruda and Opdivo in 2028 [2][19][24]. - The current market for PD-1 IO therapies is projected to reach over US$50 billion, with significant growth expected as new candidates enter the market [11][19]. Company-Specific Insights Akeso Inc (9926.HK) - Akeso's ivonescimab has demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) in the HARMONi-2/HARMONi-6 trials, with promising overall survival (OS) data [2][29]. - Target price (TP) raised to HK$185 from HK$98, reflecting strong revenue growth and a robust pipeline [5][31]. - The company has achieved significant revenue of Rmb2.1 billion in 2024 and has transitioned from a high-risk rating to a buy rating [5][31]. Innovent (1801.HK) - Innovent's IBI363 has shown promising data in IO-treated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and is expected to launch pivotal trials in 2H25 [2][32][33]. - TP increased to HK$105 from HK$90, with a focus on next-generation IO and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) combinations [5][34]. 3SBio (1530.HK) - 3SBio is developing SSGJ-707 (PD-1/VEGF) and is expected to present more data in upcoming meetings [27]. - TP raised to HK$36 from HK$21, reflecting increased peak sales forecasts [5][28]. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877.HK) - Junshi is conducting Phase 2 studies for JS207, with data expected in 3Q25 [35]. - TP adjusted to HK$32 from HK$17, indicating growth potential [5][36]. Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - Sino Biopharmaceutical announced the acquisition of LaNova Medicines to enhance its innovative pipeline [37]. - TP increased to HK$8.80 from HK$6.20, reflecting progress in drug development [5][38]. Investment Opportunities and Risks - There are numerous business development (BD) opportunities as multinational corporations (MNCs) seek to replenish their pipelines with new drugs [3][24]. - The expiration of patents for leading IO products creates a competitive landscape, necessitating innovation and strategic partnerships [3][24]. Clinical Data and Progress - Promising clinical data for next-generation IO candidates, including head-to-head comparisons, have garnered investor interest [11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical data in determining market share and probability of success (PoS) for each candidate [4][18]. Conclusion - The next-generation IO space presents significant investment opportunities, with several companies showing promising clinical data and strong market potential. Adjustments in target prices reflect the anticipated growth and success of these candidates in the evolving oncology landscape [5][18][19].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the flourishing approval of new drugs and highlights the importance of focusing on technological tracks and opportunities within the industry chain [1][5] - It suggests a dual growth strategy combining internal and external growth, particularly in the context of the imminent patent cliff for IO1.0 and the increasing recognition of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies globally [5] Industry Overview - The report notes a significant recovery in domestic healthcare policies, including the integration of commercial insurance into the medical insurance system and the inclusion of high-priced innovative drugs in the Class B medical insurance catalog [5] - The overall revenue growth rate for chemical pharmaceutical companies in 2024 is projected at 4.10%, a substantial increase from 0.24% in 2023, while the net profit growth rate is expected to be 51.66% [12][15] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus is recommended on certain tracks with high certainty, such as IO+ADC, while long-term investments should target new technologies with significant potential, including small nucleic acids and CAR-T [5] - The report categorizes various technological tracks for investment, including combinations of PD-1 with other mechanisms and innovative solutions for unmet clinical needs [5] Company Valuations - The report provides a comparative valuation of unprofitable innovative pharmaceutical companies, highlighting their market capitalizations and projected revenues for 2024 to 2027 [6] - It also presents a comparative valuation of profitable innovative pharmaceutical companies, detailing their market capitalizations and projected net profits for the same period [8] Performance Review - The report reviews the performance of pharmaceutical companies in 2024 and Q1 2025, noting that while the overall industry faced temporary pressure, gross profit margins have steadily improved [12][15] - It highlights that many small and mid-cap innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned profitable in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in the sector [18]

Group 1 - Junshi Biosciences (01877) saw its stock price increase by over 10%, currently trading at 26.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 4.52 billion HKD [1] - The preclinical research results of JS207, a recombinant humanized PD-1 and VEGF bispecific antibody developed by Junshi, were published in the journal "Frontiers in Immunology," detailing its molecular design, in vitro characteristics, functions, and anti-tumor efficacy [1] - According to Founder Securities, the preclinical data of JS207 demonstrates the potential of second-generation PD-1 antibodies in anti-tumor applications, indicating its business development (BD) potential [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that AstraZeneca is in discussions with Summit regarding a collaboration on the AK112 drug, with a potential deal value of up to 15 billion USD [2] - PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibodies are expected to be the next-generation cornerstone drugs in the immuno-oncology market, with ongoing combinations with ADC/TCE likely to expand market opportunities [2] - As of May 2025, only Pfizer and Merck have entered this market segment among multinational corporations, suggesting that other early-stage PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibodies from China may have opportunities for business development abroad as data matures [2]

Core Insights - JS207, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-1 and VEGFA developed by Junshi Biosciences, has demonstrated strong antitumor activity and favorable safety profiles in preclinical studies, indicating its potential as a novel cancer treatment [1][2] Group 1: Mechanism and Preclinical Results - JS207 exhibits high affinity binding to PD-1 and VEGFA, showing comparable or superior antigen affinity, immune activation, and vascular proliferation regulation compared to similar drugs [1][2] - In various tumor models, JS207 has shown robust antitumor activity, with good tolerability and thermal stability, making it a promising candidate for cancer therapy [1][2] Group 2: Structural and Functional Characteristics - Structurally, JS207 is based on Trastuzumab, combining a full-length anti-PD-1 IgG antibody with a VEGFA-targeting heavy chain variable region, demonstrating effective blocking of PD1/PDL1 and PD1/PDL2 interactions [2] - In mouse tumor models, JS207 exhibited dose-dependent antitumor effects, outperforming Trastuzumab alone or in combination with VEGF DotAb treatment [2] Group 3: Clinical Development and Market Potential - JS207 is currently undergoing multiple Phase I-II clinical trials for various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, renal cancer, and colorectal cancer, indicating its broad application potential [3] - The drug has significant combination potential with other products in the company's pipeline, such as DKK1 inhibitors and CTLA-4 monoclonal antibodies, enhancing its market prospects [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.6 billion, 3.5 billion, and 4.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.45%, 34.62%, and 28.57% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -685 million, 29 million, and 306 million yuan for the same period, with significant growth rates of 46.53%, 104.18%, and 968.22% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent equity placement announcement by Junshi Biosciences has led to a significant decline in its stock price, reflecting market concerns over its financing strategy and the sustainability of its business model [1][4]. Group 1: Equity Placement Details - Junshi Biosciences announced a placement of 41 million new H-shares at a price of HKD 25.35 per share, representing a discount of 11.52% from the previous closing price, with expected net proceeds of approximately HKD 1.026 billion [2]. - The funds raised will be allocated primarily to innovative drug research and development, with 70% directed towards key drug pipelines including JS207, JS212, and JS213, while the remaining 30% will be used to supplement working capital [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - The company has invested over RMB 7.6 billion in R&D from 2021 to 2024, with a 26.89% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 R&D spending to RMB 351 million, accounting for 70.03% of its revenue [3]. - Despite a 45.72% increase in sales revenue of its core product, Tuoyi®, to RMB 447 million in Q1, the company still reported a loss of RMB 235 million, highlighting ongoing financial pressures [3]. - As of the end of March, the company had cash and financial assets of only RMB 3.022 billion, raising concerns about its ability to fund multiple clinical projects in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The equity placement coincided with a high stock price for Junshi Biosciences, which saw a 130% increase in H-shares and over 32% in A-shares this year, driven by several business development transactions and industry recovery [4]. - The discount on the equity placement has triggered profit-taking among investors, indicating sensitivity in the market towards the financing strategies of biotech companies [4]. - The situation reflects a broader challenge for unprofitable biotech firms, as they navigate the balance between funding and achieving commercial viability, raising questions about whether Junshi Biosciences can sustain its market valuation amidst ongoing financial strain [5].