5 January 2026 China Pharma and Biotech China Pharma and Biotech 2026 Outlook: Off to the races Rebecca Liang, Ph.D. +852 2123 2656 rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Ellie Li +852 2123 2621 ellie.li@bernsteinsg.com "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Positive outlook at sector level: valuation-wise we're back in a more rational range than July - Aug, with most stocks dialing back 20-30%. The major healthcare and biotech indices are below the price levels of 2 ...

创新药ETF国泰（517110）跟踪的是SHS创新药指数（931409），该指数从沪深港三地市场中选取具备 创新能力的医药企业作为指数样本，覆盖生物医药、化学制药等细分领域。指数侧重筛选研发实力突 出、成长性良好的上市公司证券，旨在反映中国创新药产业的整体表现，投资风格偏向成长型。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 中信建投指出，医药生物行业中化学制药板块本周表现一般，但创新药领域迎来多项进展：恒瑞医药 cMET ADC新药SHE-1826拟纳入突破治疗药物；信达生物CTLA-4生物类似药达伯欣定价13100元/支； 泽璟制药DLL3/DLL3/CD3三抗以12.35亿美元授权艾伯维，首付款1亿美元并含最高10.75亿美元里程碑 款。技术层面，ADC、IO双抗、GLP-1减重及小核酸药物多点突破，中 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing a significant recovery in 2025, with record high external BD totals and an increase in the number of drug approvals [1][2] - Despite the positive trends, there are concerns about the sustainability of the market, high valuations of some companies, and the potential for structural differentiation in the industry [2][3] Group 2: IPO Market - The IPO market for innovative drug companies has seen a resurgence, with many firms successfully listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange and exceeding fundraising expectations [3][4] - However, the market experienced a downturn in December, with initial public offerings facing challenges such as market sentiment cooling and stricter regulatory scrutiny [4] Group 3: Commercial Insurance and Drug Pricing - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs aims to address the payment challenges associated with high-priced therapies, with 24 drugs participating in price negotiations [4][5] - The negotiated price reductions for these drugs range from 15% to 50%, but the effectiveness of this new payment model in promoting clinical use remains to be seen [5] Group 4: BD Opportunities and Challenges - The trend of significant BD transactions continues, with companies like 3SBio and Innovent Biologics leading the way, prompting speculation about the next major BD opportunities [6][7] - There is a growing concern about the legal risks associated with BD transactions, as the industry may face an increase in litigation related to these deals [8] Group 5: Future Prospects and Uncertainties - Key questions remain regarding the future of companies like Summit, including potential acquisitions and the performance of their clinical trials [9][10] - The domestic vaccine sector is struggling, with significant declines in stock prices and ongoing challenges related to product differentiation and commercialization [11] - Geopolitical factors continue to pose risks to the innovative drug sector, with ongoing uncertainties regarding regulatory policies and market access [12] Group 6: Unexpected Developments - Some biotech companies have made surprising decisions, such as the acquisition of Lixte Biotechnology by China National Pharmaceutical Group, which deviated from expectations of an independent IPO [13][14] - The sudden dissolution of Run Biotech highlights the high-risk nature of the industry and the challenges of balancing short-term financial returns with long-term innovation [15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on upcoming catalysts and potential drug approvals. Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant developments in 2026, with multiple domestic drugs anticipated to report key clinical data. This includes drugs from companies like Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and CanSino Biologics, which are expected to read out critical clinical data in 2026 [3][21]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term theme for the innovative drug sector is international expansion, with several sub-themes to focus on, including overseas business development (BD) licensing, key clinical trials, and unexpected overseas sales growth [3][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly New Drug Market Review - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the top five gainers in the new drug sector were Dongyao Pharmaceutical (+23.15%), Beihai Kangcheng (+19.27%), Junshengtai (+16.41%), Shiyao Group (+6.95%), and Ailis (+5.78%). The top five losers were Gakos (-16.11%), Jiahe Biotech (-10.29%), Laika Pharmaceuticals (-9.33%), Yunding Xinyao (-8.98%), and Yongtai Biotech (-6.94%) [1][14]. Weekly Focused Stocks - The report suggests focusing on several stocks with high overseas expansion potential, including: 1. Companies with MNC certification and high overseas volume certainty: Sanofi, United Pharmaceuticals, and Kelun-Biotech. 2. Companies with overseas data catalysts: Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hutchison China MediTech, and InnoCare Pharma. 3. Potential heavyweights for overseas MNC licensing: Junshi Biosciences, Shiyao Group, and Yifang Biotech. 4. New innovative drug technology breakthroughs: small nucleic acids, in vivo CAR-T, fat loss and muscle gain, autoimmune CAR-T/bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy [2][18]. Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 23 new drug or new indication applications were approved in China, and 10 new drug or new indication applications were accepted [4][19]. Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 99 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 64 new drug clinical applications were accepted [5][24]. Key Domestic Market Events - Notable events include: 1. Xiansheng Zhaoming announced a global exclusive licensing agreement with Ipsen for an ADC drug, potentially worth up to $1.06 billion. 2. He Yu Pharmaceuticals received approval for its CSF-1R selective small molecule inhibitor. 3. Tongyi Pharmaceuticals announced a licensing agreement for a peptide conjugate drug for prostate cancer, with potential payments totaling around $2 billion [10]. Key Overseas Market Events - Significant overseas events include: 1. Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a 25mg oral semaglutide tablet for weight loss. 2. Sanofi announced a cash acquisition agreement for Dynavax Technologies Corporation, valued at approximately $2.2 billion. 3. Agios Pharmaceuticals announced FDA approval for an oral PK activator for treating α or β thalassemia in adult patients [11].

医药行业始终是穿越周期的优质长期赛道，在政策引导与技术创新的双重赋能下，医药行业正迎来怎样的破局机遇与生态重构？ 12 月 21 日，在 2025 雪球嘉年华上，雪球人气用户 @ 李卓，青侨阳光医药基金投资经理林伟、小丰基金投资经理张小丰和建平远航基金经理黄建 平从各自重点关注的角度，复盘了 2025 年医药行业的整体表现，拆解细分赛道的核心投资逻辑与机遇。 中国创新药崛起的核心逻辑 李卓 ：为什么中国创新药产业周期发展并不是很长，但这些创新药企业的产品管线在全球具有非常强的竞争力？ 张小丰 ： 中国医药崛起主要是人才供应、成本、效率三大优势的综合表现。人才方面：每年培养的工程师数量远超海外，基础研究大幅提升，医 药类顶刊论文全球占比从 2018 年 5% 升至 2024 的 18% 。成本优势方面，临床前研发成本仅为海外的 30%-50% ，即便近年临床研发成本一直上 涨，但仅约为海外研发成本的一半左右。企业效率方面，临床前研发速度是海外的 2-3 倍，临床推进速度达 2-5 倍，同一药物可早 1-2 年产出临床 数据，这一时间优势难以替代。 黄建平 ： 从三个方面来看，其一，监管定规则： 2015 年前市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 144.9, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% from the current price of HKD 117.4 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in product revenue by 49.2% year-on-year to RMB 1.4 billion in the first half of 2025, despite a net loss of RMB 570 million, which is an increase of 139% in losses compared to the previous year [1]. - The company has made substantial progress in its product pipeline, with multiple drugs in various stages of clinical trials and approvals, including AK104 and AK112, which have shown promising results in treating various cancers [2]. - The financial outlook shows a projected revenue increase from RMB 2.1 billion in 2024 to RMB 5.6 billion by 2027, with a recovery in net profit expected by 2027 [4][7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 4.53 billion, with a gross margin of 97.1% [4][7]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive by 2027, with an estimated net profit of RMB 260 million [4][7]. - The company has a strong cash position, with net cash expected to be RMB 5.8 billion post-financing activities [1].

Summary of the Conference Call on China Healthcare Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China healthcare sector**, highlighting recent weaknesses and potential opportunities for 2026 [2][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current Market Performance**: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has declined by **3.1%**, while the Hang Seng Index fell by **1.6%**. The HSHCI has dropped approximately **17%** from its year-to-date high in early October, with some small and mid-cap stocks down around **30%** [2][5]. - **Valuation Outlook**: Despite the current weakness, the fundamentals of the sector remain intact, and valuations are becoming more attractive, suggesting a potential rebound in 2026 [2][5][6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Biotech**: Innovent and Kelun Biotech (rated Overweight) - **Pharma**: Hansoh Pharma and Hengrui-A (rated Overweight) - **CXO**: WuXi Apptec and WuXi XDC (rated Overweight) - Caution is advised regarding Akeso due to unclear updates on HARMONi-2 OS [2][5][6]. Upcoming Events and Legislative Considerations - **NRDL Price Negotiations**: Anticipated results from the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) price negotiations are expected to be neutral to negative, reflecting the current weak sentiment [5][6]. - **Biosecure Act**: The potential passing of the Biosecure Act could be a negative headline event, although it is not expected to significantly impact China CXOs' business [5][6]. - **Medical Conferences**: Upcoming medical conferences in December (e.g., ASH'25 and SABCS'25) are not expected to affect overall sentiment towards the China healthcare sector [5][6]. Emerging Themes for 2026 - Potential interest in new drug modalities such as **siRNA** (small interfering RNA) and **RDC** (radionuclide drug conjugate) is anticipated, along with expectations for global Phase 3 data from out-licensed assets [5][6]. - A healthy out-licensing deal flow is expected in 2026, although it may not surpass the total deal size of 2025 due to several significant deals this year [6]. - The **JPM Global Healthcare Conference** in January 2026 is expected to provide further insights into the prospects for the China healthcare sector, with presentations from over a dozen public and private Chinese companies [6]. Key Companies Discussed - **Akeso** (9926.HK) - **Hansoh Pharma** (3692.HK) - **Hengrui** (600276.SS) - **Innovent Biologics** (1801.HK) - **Kelun Biotech** (6990.HK) - **WuXi AppTec** (603259.SS and 2359.HK) - **WuXi XDC** (2268.HK) [8]. Conclusion - The China healthcare sector is currently facing challenges but presents potential investment opportunities as valuations become more attractive. Key themes and developments in 2026 will be closely monitored, particularly in light of upcoming conferences and legislative changes [2][5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the innovation-driven pharmaceutical industry in China, highlighting the trend of internationalization and the potential for growth in both innovative drugs and medical devices, while also addressing the challenges posed by domestic demand and healthcare financing [2][3][4]. Group 1: Innovation and Internationalization - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical industry has transitioned from "importing and imitating" to "innovating and exporting," with significant internationalization evidenced by increasing license-out deals and collaborations [3][5]. - By 2025, Chinese innovative drugs are expected to demonstrate global competitiveness with high-quality clinical data presented at major international conferences [5][9]. - The trend of innovative drugs is supported by improved financing conditions and a favorable regulatory environment, leading to a new cycle for CXO and upstream sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Healthcare Financing - Domestic demand has been weak but is gradually improving, with commercial insurance playing a crucial role in alleviating payment conflicts [3][4]. - The healthcare sector is undergoing a normalization phase post-medical corruption investigations, which is expected to ease the impact on the industry by 2025 [3][4]. - The article highlights the need for a multi-layered healthcare financing system, with commercial insurance expected to inject new vitality into the payment landscape [24][25]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The "barbell strategy" remains applicable in 2026, combining aggressive investments in innovative healthcare technologies with defensive positions in traditional dividend-paying stocks [4][22]. - The article suggests that high-dividend pharmaceutical stocks still have room for valuation recovery, particularly in light of the aging population and the essential nature of healthcare demand [23][24]. - Key investment windows are identified around the release of 2025 annual reports and the end of 2026, as these periods may attract institutional investment due to clearer assessments of dividend sustainability [23][24]. Group 4: Medical Devices and Equipment - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery, with companies gradually clearing inventory and improving revenue growth [14][18]. - The article notes that the competitive landscape for medical devices is shifting, with high-end products maintaining price stability while lower-end products face price competition [18][19]. - Chinese medical device companies are accelerating their international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic revenue growth [19][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The integration of AI in healthcare is anticipated to create new tools and business models, particularly in drug development and clinical diagnostics [20][21]. - The article posits that while rapid growth in new technologies may be challenging in the short term, supportive policies and clear clinical needs will present investment opportunities in the healthcare sector [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International emphasizes a conservative investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks in the healthcare sector, particularly in the context of recent market fluctuations and recovery in capital financing [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 59.5% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.0% [1] - The healthcare sector has recently experienced a pullback, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index declining by 10% since October [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - CMB International identifies several stocks with attractive valuations, including Solid Biosciences (02273), Three-Sixty Biopharma (01530), Giant Biologics (02367), WuXi AppTec (02268), Innovent Biologics (01801), and China Biologic Products (01177) [1] - The report highlights a significant buyback plan from Solid Biosciences, which has repurchased HKD 350 million worth of shares this year, with a total expected return from buybacks and dividends reaching 7% [1] Group 3: Clinical Development and Regulatory Environment - The report stresses the importance of overseas clinical progress for authorized drug pipelines, which is expected to be a catalyst for stock price increases [2] - Three-Sixty Biopharma's collaboration with Pfizer is noted, with two global Phase 3 clinical trials for its drug 707 targeting non-small cell lung cancer and colorectal cancer [2] Group 4: Healthcare Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent healthcare negotiations and the 11th batch of centralized procurement have seen reduced market attention, with 127 drugs participating in negotiations and 55 drugs included in the procurement [3] - The new procurement rules focus on maintaining clinical stability and quality, indicating a shift towards rational price competition in the market [3] - Despite the reduced focus on procurement, the domestic market performance remains a critical variable for overall business performance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 59.5% since early 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 24.0%. However, the healthcare sector has recently experienced a 10% pullback, presenting opportunities in undervalued stocks [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas clinical advancements for authorized innovative drug pipelines, which are expected to be significant catalysts for stock price increases [3]. - The report highlights a recovery in domestic innovative drug research and development demand, driven by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of innovative drug transactions abroad [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report suggests a more conservative investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks within the pharmaceutical sector. It notes that the recent healthcare insurance negotiations and the implementation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement have led to reduced market attention [3]. - The report identifies key products to watch in the upcoming healthcare negotiations, including drugs from companies like 信达生物 and 康方生物, among others [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in 三生制药, 固生堂, 巨子生物, 药明合联, 信达生物, and 中国生物制药, citing their strong potential for growth and favorable market conditions [3]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their promising clinical trial results and strategic partnerships, such as 三生制药's collaboration with Pfizer on global clinical trials [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for recommended companies, showing target prices and potential upside percentages. For example, 固生堂 has a target price of 48.28 with a 62% upside potential [2].