Contraction. Not good. -32,000 is the headline number for ADP, which is obviously the worst in quite some time.Goods producing jobs down by 3000. Within that category, construction off by 5000 people have been waiting for that. Manufacturing down by 2000, 28,000 service industry jobs.ADP says we're lost 19,000 in leisure and hospitality and professional and business services down 13,000. The only real positive category is education and health services, which is always the big hiring place. 33,000 on the mon ...

Labor Market Analysis - The bond market anticipates a non-farm payroll number around 100,000; exceeding this figure might counter the previous month's negative revision of -258,000 [1] - A non-farm payroll number below 50,000 could increase the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - The speaker notes that the non-farm payroll data may not be entirely accurate, but it is the primary information available for analysis [2][5] Bond Market and Interest Rate Expectations - Two-year Treasury yields were at 396 basis points and 10-year yields were at 438 basis points before the previous month's non-farm payroll report [4] - Since the last report, the two-year and ten-year yields have moved mostly sideways to slightly lower [4] - The market will closely watch the upcoming non-farm payroll report, despite potential inaccuracies, as it is the key data point available [5]

Mark, I want to start with a question that is from our previous guest, Puja Kumar, over at TD Bank. She was saying there's really nothing that payrolls or inflation could give us next week that would put this Fed cut in doubt in September. Do you agree with that. I don't agree with that.I know that actually there are many people in markets who are in that camp, I would say is the majority view. But I think there is still a risk of 50 basis points and I still think there's a risk of nothing. I think the non- ...

The big July job job jobs jobs report. Non-farm payrolls up 73,000. Definitely a bit light, but maybe it's the Goldilocks.We'll have to see how the market moves. 73,000. That would be the lightest rate of the year.You have to go back to October of last year to find a lower non-farm pace at 44,000. Now, the revisions, here's a biggie. The two-month revision minus 258,000.That is a biggie. A biggie. Average hourly earnings on month-to-month basis come in as expected, up 3/10en.And if we look at year-over-year ...

Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, the lowest rate of the year [1] - The two-month revision showed a decrease of 258,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.2%, marking the fourth time this year at this level [3] - Labor force participation rate came in at 62.2%, 0.1% lower than the previous reading and expectations [3] - The underemployment rate (U6) is at 7.9%, matching the level in March [4] Wage and Hours - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, 0.1% higher than expected [2] - Hours worked increased by 0.1% to 34.3% [2] Market Reaction - Interest rates are moving lower, likely due to the significant revision in job numbers [4] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 0.07% (seven basis points) on the week, settling around 4.32% [5] - The two-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 0.10% (ten basis points) [5] Government Perspective - The current administration is trying to reduce the size of government, which may impact government hiring figures in the report [8]

Market Trends & Interest Rates - Treasury yields are rising as investors react to weaker jobs data and the potential impact of President Trump's tax and spending package [1] - Interest rates may have peaked in terms of low rates, particularly given the holiday-shortened week [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield continues to move higher [3] Labor Market Analysis - ADP small business job loss data at 8:15 AM EST made some traders nervous, causing yields to drop initially [2] - A potentially weakening labor market could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [4] - Uncertainty remains whether the day's report is indicative of the larger jobs number to be released tomorrow [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Monetary Policy - A weakening labor market could hasten the Fed's easing campaign [4] - Fed fund futures gravitated towards the upside, indicating expectations of more easing [4] - The market is unsure if today's report is a one-off or a clue about tomorrow's jobs number, impacting expectations for the Fed [5] Bond Market Dynamics - The 2-year yield reflects the most information regarding the Fed [3] - The 210 spread (difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) bounced back and steepened [3] - The D's contract (likely referring to a specific futures contract) initially reflected the two-year yield's movement but almost returned to unchanged [5]

Labor Market - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding the forecast of 125,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [1] Inflation and Consumer Spending - CPI report indicated inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in May, with core inflation steady at 2.8% [2] - Headline retail sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month, a sharper decline than expected [3] - Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, indicating a slowdown [3] Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show resilience despite some moderation in retail sales [1][4] - Analysts believe the May data does not fundamentally challenge the narrative of a resilient economy, at least not yet [4] - The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this resilience can last, with inflation risks and policy changes ahead [4]

Employment Landscape - The non-farm payrolls report, while stronger than expected, indicates a slowing employment landscape [1] - Headline data decreased compared to the previous month, which was also revised downwards [1] - Employers may be reducing hiring due to tighter financial conditions, while incentivizing current employees with higher wages [1] Wage Growth & Labor Force - Strong wage growth coupled with a lower labor force participation rate was observed [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Continued wage pressures may keep inflation elevated, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The low unemployment rate provides no immediate impetus for a rate cut [2]