Core Insights - Viking Therapeutics' shares fell 42% following the phase II VENTURE-Oral Dosing study results for VK2735, despite achieving primary and secondary endpoints [1][4] - The study showed significant weight loss in participants, with the highest dose resulting in a 12.2% reduction in body weight [3][6] - High patient dropout rates due to adverse events raised concerns about the drug's tolerability, impacting investor sentiment [4][6] Company Summary - The VENTURE-Oral Dosing study involved approximately 280 adults with obesity or overweight conditions, randomized into six dosing arms [2] - Participants on the highest dose (120 mg) lost an average of 26.6 lbs over 13 weeks, while the placebo group lost only 1.3% [3] - The dropout rate for VK2735 was 28%, compared to 18% for the placebo, leading to skepticism about the drug's market viability [4][6] Industry Context - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion in the U.S. by 2030, attracting significant interest from pharmaceutical companies [8] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are key players in the obesity treatment space, with ongoing developments in oral weight-loss pills [9] - Novo Nordisk is likely to be the first to market an oral obesity pill, with a regulatory filing under FDA review for an oral version of Wegovy [9]

Clinical Progress - Top-line data from the CBeyond study is expected in late Q3/early Q4[15] - A KOL event is scheduled for September 2025 to discuss the mechanism, Phase 2a clinical data expectations, and market positioning[15, 49] Nimacimab's Differentiation and Mechanism - Nimacimab exhibits significantly less brain penetration compared to small molecule CB1 inhibitors[18] - Nimacimab retains potency even in the presence of competition, unlike small molecules[20] - Preclinical data suggests nimacimab enhances weight loss when combined with low-dose tirzepatide[26] - Preclinical data suggests nimacimab prevents weight rebound and shows potential as maintenance therapy, with tirzepatide rebound at 29.7% and nimacimab maintenance at 12.8% in Phase B[31, 33] Market Opportunity - Nearly two-thirds (66.67%) of patients discontinue GLP-1 RA therapy after one year, and over 80% discontinue after two years, highlighting a therapeutic gap[36] - The company believes nimacimab represents a potential multi-billion dollar opportunity in monotherapy, maintenance, and combination therapy for obesity[37]

This weight loss drugmaker may be significantly undervalued right now. While most investors pile into Eli Lilly (LLY 2.95%) or flee from struggling Novo Nordisk (NVO 2.48%), they're missing a compelling opportunity in the clinical-stage space. Novo recently lost nearly $70 billion in market cap after cutting 2025 guidance and warning of slowing Wegovy momentum, while the broader biotech industry's recent reawakening has created pockets of value among companies with differentiated approaches to weight manage ...

Core Viewpoint - Roche's collaboration deal with Zealand Pharma for the obesity drug petrelintide increases competition in the obesity treatment market, negatively impacting Novo Nordisk's stock performance [1][5]. Company Summary - Roche has entered a licensing agreement to co-develop petrelintide, a long-acting amylin analog, which is currently in phase IIb studies targeting individuals who are obese or overweight without type II diabetes [2][4]. - The deal includes an upfront payment of $1.65 billion, with total deal value reaching approximately $5.3 billion, including milestone payments [4]. - Novo Nordisk's stock has seen a significant decline of 14.2% this week and 44.4% over the past year, attributed to increased competition and disappointing data from its own obesity candidate, CagriSema [6][7]. Industry Summary - The obesity treatment market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Roche's entry posing a threat to the dominance of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, who currently lead with their GLP-1 drugs [3][5]. - Other companies, such as Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the development of GLP-1-based candidates, indicating a broader competitive landscape [8]. - The recent licensing of GUB014295 by AbbVie for obesity treatment further intensifies competition in the next-generation amylin class [9].