Key Points The company's lead drug candidate is in a phase 3 trial, and enrollment is progressing well. The drug is also being tested in oral formulation, and there's plenty of value in Viking's pipeline. 10 stocks we like better than Viking Therapeutics › In common with many other small-cap biotech stocks, Viking Therapeutics' (NASDAQ: VKTX) share price tends to be volatile as investors react to the ebb and flow of news from the company. Today was an up day with the stock rising more than 10% by 1 ...

Terns Pharmaceuticals said on Tuesday it will stop developing its experimental obesity drug after a mid-stage trial showed modest weight loss and raised safety concerns. ...

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Core Insights - Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is making significant progress in obesity drug development with its investigational drug VK2735, a dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist [1] - Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera for $4.9 billion intensifies competition in the obesity market, adding four new clinical-stage programs to Pfizer's pipeline [2] - The recent mixed results from VKTX's mid-stage study raise concerns about the safety and tolerability of VK2735, particularly regarding higher dropout rates [4] Company Developments - VKTX is advancing VK2735 in both oral and subcutaneous forms for obesity treatment, with a focus now shifting to the subcutaneous version following mixed trial results for the oral formulation [5][9] - The company aims to compete with established players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, which dominate the obesity market with their injectable drugs [5] - Despite challenges, VKTX has achieved its primary and secondary endpoints in clinical studies, indicating potential for market share in the growing obesity sector [6] Industry Landscape - The obesity market in the U.S. is projected to reach $100 billion by 2030, with major players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk already generating significant revenue from obesity drugs [7] - Amgen, AbbVie, and Merck are also entering the obesity space, with Amgen initiating phase III studies for its investigational drug MariTide [8][10] - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly crowded, with multiple companies investing in next-generation obesity treatments [7][8] Financial Performance - VKTX shares have underperformed the industry year to date, trading at a premium with a price-to-book value ratio of 3.76 compared to the industry average of 3.22 [11][13] - Estimates for VKTX's loss per share for 2025 and 2026 have widened recently, indicating potential financial challenges ahead [14]

Group 1: Acquisition Details - Pfizer Inc. is nearing a $7.3 billion acquisition of Metsera Inc., a biotech firm focused on obesity treatments, with a cash offer of $47.50 per share and an additional $22.50 per share based on performance milestones [1] - The acquisition is part of Pfizer's strategy to re-enter the obesity drug market after previously discontinuing its own candidate due to safety concerns [3] Group 2: Metsera's Product and Market Position - Metsera, founded in 2022, is developing injectable and oral hormone analog peptides for obesity treatment, with its lead candidate, MET-097i, showing an average weight loss of 11.3% in mid-stage trials [2] - The drug's once-monthly dosing schedule may provide a competitive advantage over existing weekly GLP-1 injections [2] Group 3: Market Context and Future Outlook - The global demand for weight-loss therapies is projected to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s, positioning Pfizer to compete with major players like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [3] - The deal highlights the increasing reliance of big pharma on biotech innovation to stay competitive in high-growth therapeutic areas [4]

Core Insights - Viking Therapeutics' shares fell 42% following the phase II VENTURE-Oral Dosing study results for VK2735, despite achieving primary and secondary endpoints [1][4] - The study showed significant weight loss in participants, with the highest dose resulting in a 12.2% reduction in body weight [3][6] - High patient dropout rates due to adverse events raised concerns about the drug's tolerability, impacting investor sentiment [4][6] Company Summary - The VENTURE-Oral Dosing study involved approximately 280 adults with obesity or overweight conditions, randomized into six dosing arms [2] - Participants on the highest dose (120 mg) lost an average of 26.6 lbs over 13 weeks, while the placebo group lost only 1.3% [3] - The dropout rate for VK2735 was 28%, compared to 18% for the placebo, leading to skepticism about the drug's market viability [4][6] Industry Context - The obesity market is projected to reach $100 billion in the U.S. by 2030, attracting significant interest from pharmaceutical companies [8] - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are key players in the obesity treatment space, with ongoing developments in oral weight-loss pills [9] - Novo Nordisk is likely to be the first to market an oral obesity pill, with a regulatory filing under FDA review for an oral version of Wegovy [9]

Clinical Progress - Top-line data from the CBeyond study is expected in late Q3/early Q4[15] - A KOL event is scheduled for September 2025 to discuss the mechanism, Phase 2a clinical data expectations, and market positioning[15, 49] Nimacimab's Differentiation and Mechanism - Nimacimab exhibits significantly less brain penetration compared to small molecule CB1 inhibitors[18] - Nimacimab retains potency even in the presence of competition, unlike small molecules[20] - Preclinical data suggests nimacimab enhances weight loss when combined with low-dose tirzepatide[26] - Preclinical data suggests nimacimab prevents weight rebound and shows potential as maintenance therapy, with tirzepatide rebound at 29.7% and nimacimab maintenance at 12.8% in Phase B[31, 33] Market Opportunity - Nearly two-thirds (66.67%) of patients discontinue GLP-1 RA therapy after one year, and over 80% discontinue after two years, highlighting a therapeutic gap[36] - The company believes nimacimab represents a potential multi-billion dollar opportunity in monotherapy, maintenance, and combination therapy for obesity[37]

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics is currently undervalued at a market cap of $3.7 billion, presenting a compelling investment opportunity in the weight loss drug sector, particularly as the company approaches critical clinical data releases for its oral VK2735 candidate [2][3][5]. Company Overview - Viking Therapeutics is focused on developing a dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism for weight loss, which has shown promising results in previous trials, including a 14.7% body weight reduction over 13 weeks with 88% of patients achieving at least 10% weight loss [6][10]. - The company is expected to report Phase 2 data for VK2735 in the second half of 2025, with September being the most likely timeframe [5]. Competitive Landscape - The obesity drug market is evolving, with competitors like Pfizer and Roche facing setbacks, creating an opportunity for Viking to capitalize on its differentiated approach [9][10]. - The market for obesity drugs is projected to reach $100 billion in annual sales by 2030, yet few companies have successfully developed oral alternatives, which could enhance Viking's strategic positioning [11]. Value Creation Pathways - Viking offers multiple avenues for value creation, including potential strategic partnerships or acquisition interest from major pharmaceutical companies facing patent cliffs [12][13]. - The company could also explore independent commercialization through innovative partnership models, such as subscription-based treatment platforms [14]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has created a scarcity of advanced oral GLP-1 assets, making Viking's differentiated platform particularly attractive to potential acquirers, including Novo Nordisk [15][11]. - Viking's clean intellectual property position and manageable valuation further enhance its appeal as a target for companies looking to fill gaps in their obesity drug portfolios [13]. Upcoming Catalysts - The upcoming readout of VK2735 oral data is critical, as success could lead to various value creation scenarios, including strategic acquisitions or licensing partnerships [20][21]. - The dual-pathway approach of Viking addresses validated market needs, positioning the company favorably in a landscape with limited competition [19].

Core Viewpoint - Roche's collaboration deal with Zealand Pharma for the obesity drug petrelintide increases competition in the obesity treatment market, negatively impacting Novo Nordisk's stock performance [1][5]. Company Summary - Roche has entered a licensing agreement to co-develop petrelintide, a long-acting amylin analog, which is currently in phase IIb studies targeting individuals who are obese or overweight without type II diabetes [2][4]. - The deal includes an upfront payment of $1.65 billion, with total deal value reaching approximately $5.3 billion, including milestone payments [4]. - Novo Nordisk's stock has seen a significant decline of 14.2% this week and 44.4% over the past year, attributed to increased competition and disappointing data from its own obesity candidate, CagriSema [6][7]. Industry Summary - The obesity treatment market is becoming increasingly competitive, with Roche's entry posing a threat to the dominance of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, who currently lead with their GLP-1 drugs [3][5]. - Other companies, such as Amgen and Viking Therapeutics, are also advancing in the development of GLP-1-based candidates, indicating a broader competitive landscape [8]. - The recent licensing of GUB014295 by AbbVie for obesity treatment further intensifies competition in the next-generation amylin class [9].