诺和诺德(NVO.US)作为欧洲制药巨头，当前市值约3100亿美元，业务聚焦糖尿病与肥胖症护理、罕见疾病两大领域，TTM综合营业额达440亿美元。近期其 股价经历剧烈回调，较历史高位缩水超52%，这一跌幅堪称公司历史上最陡峭的调整之一。 尽管市场情绪悲观，但当前或许是审视这家被显著低估的制药龙头，把握潜在反弹机会的合适时机。本文认为，围绕美国市场定价压力与CagriSema临床试 验的担忧存在过度解读，诺和诺德有望在1-2年内重返120美元上方，为具备成长价值的投资者(GARP型)创造显著收益空间。 财务表现印证公司基本面稳健 2025年第一季度销售额达118.3亿美元，同比增长25.85%，基本符合市场预期。核心产品Ozempic在糖尿病领域保持稳定增长，Wegovy则呈现爆发式扩张， 美国市场销售额激增40%，国际市场更达137%。 目前全球仅4600万患者接受治疗，这一数字相较潜在需求仍有巨大提升空间。非GAAP每股收益同比增长20.7%，虽略低于营收增速，但仍超出市场预期近 7%，创2021年以来最高超预期幅度之一。尽管管理层下调全年销售额增长指引至13%-21%，但市场过度聚焦于此，忽视了监管环境改 ...

医药｜2025ADA 大会：减重药物新进展 20250703 摘要 诺和诺德的 CagriSema，结合 GLP-1 和 Amylin 受体激动剂，在 75 周 观察期内与司美格鲁肽联合治疗使体重下降 22.7%，净效达 20.4%， 但恶心不良反应高于单独使用司美格鲁肽。 AMG133 作为 GLP-1 受体激动剂和 GIP 受体阻滞剂，在肥胖伴糖尿病 患者的二期临床试验中，高剂量组（420 毫克）每月一次或每两个月一 次给药，体重下降接近 20%，扣除 IVG 效应后约为 16%。 Bimagrumab 与司美格鲁肽联合使用，可减少司美格鲁肽引起的肌肉 减少，使体重下降主要来自于脂肪组织，但高剂量联合治疗组腹泻和肌 肉痉挛发生率有所增加。 礼来公司的小分子 GLP-1 受体激动剂在 Achieve One 三期临床试验中， 36 毫克剂量组体重下降接近 8%，但两个高剂量组未显示出明显的剂量 效应关系，不良反应主要是胃肠道问题。 先为达的偏向型 GLP-1 受体激动剂在超重和肥胖人群的三期临床试验中， 2.4 毫克组 48 周时体重大幅下降 15.4%，减重效果高于司美格鲁肽 2.4 毫克，接近替西帕肽。 ...

GLP-1 agonists, a type of drug used to treat diabetes and weight loss, could be the hottest growth story in healthcare today. Experts at Morgan Stanley estimate that the market could grow to a $150 billion opportunity over the next decade, representing a tenfold increase from its sales last year. Eli Lilly (LLY -0.40%) has captured approximately 35% of the GLP-1 market, alongside arch-rival Novo Nordisk, the current market leader at 65%. However, Eli Lilly could gain on, perhaps even surpass, its rival over ...

文｜九州商业观察 一场仅维持58天的商业联姻戛然而止，揭开全球减肥药巨头在仿制药围攻与创新药受挫下的生存危机。 这场突如其来的"离婚"引发市场巨震。Hims股价单日暴跌近30%，市值蒸发约50亿美元，跌回与诺和诺 德合作前的水平。诺和诺德自身股价也一度重挫超9%，市值瞬间缩水90亿美元。 诺和诺德指责的核心在于Hims & Her未遵守禁止大规模销售配制药的法律，利用虚假的"个性化"定制规 避监管，且营销行为危及患者安全。公司尤其强调，对配制药中"非法外国活性药物成分"的担忧。 短命联姻：合作破裂背后的"致命分歧" 这场轰动行业的合作始于2025年4月29日。彼时，诺和诺德宣布与Hims & Hers达成协议，将直接通过后 者平台提供正版减肥药Wegovy。 双方最初的设想颇为美好：随着Wegovy在美国供应恢复正常，Hims & Hers将帮助引导患者从非正规配 制药转向正版产品。诺和诺德则借此拓展数字渠道，触及更广泛用户。 现实却迅速走向失控。"对于跨国药企来说，合规大于一切。" 多年互联网医疗从业者王成向虎嗅强 调。医药产业基于强监管形成的旧秩序，正受到远程医疗新业态的空前挑战。 诺和诺德调查发现，Hi ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of multiple promising weight loss drugs showcased at the 2025 ADA conference, focusing on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which exhibit excellent clinical data and are expected to become core targets for future weight loss drug development [6][15] - The report emphasizes the potential of oral and ultra-long-acting drugs in the weight loss and glycemic control market, which are anticipated to open new incremental market opportunities [8][31] - The report recommends several pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies as investment targets, including Heng Rui Medicine, East China Medicine, and others across various segments such as CXO, research services, traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, medical devices, and retail pharmacies [9] Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Drug Developments - The 2025 ADA conference showcased several potential pipeline drugs for weight loss, with a focus on AMYR and ActRII target drugs, which are expected to lead future developments in this area [15] - AMYR-targeted drugs, such as eloralintide from Eli Lilly, demonstrated superior efficacy and safety compared to GLP-1 drugs, indicating a promising future for this class of drugs [16][18] - ActRII-targeted drugs, particularly Bimagrumab, showed significant weight loss results, with 100% of weight loss coming from fat, suggesting a new standard for high-quality weight loss therapies [28][29] 2. Oral and Ultra-Long-Acting Drugs - The report identifies oral GLP-1RA drugs as a new trend in the weight loss and glycemic control market, with several companies presenting promising clinical data at the 2025 ADA conference [31][32] - The ultra-long-acting drug Maridebart cafraglutide demonstrated effective weight loss results with extended dosing intervals, enhancing patient compliance and treatment simplicity [33][34] 3. Recommended Investment Targets - The report lists various companies across different segments as recommended investment targets, including pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms, CXO companies, research service providers, traditional Chinese medicine manufacturers, raw material suppliers, medical device companies, and retail pharmacies [9]

Core Insights - The weight management medicines market is experiencing significant growth, with Eli Lilly positioned to dominate through the end of the decade due to its strong pipeline and clinical successes [1][9] - Eli Lilly's primary competitor in this space is Novo Nordisk, with both companies having deep pipelines and successful products [2][4] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown superior efficacy compared to Novo Nordisk's semaglutide in clinical trials [5] - Novo Nordisk's next-generation medicine, CagriSema, achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, falling short of its 25% target, which may hinder its commercial success [6][5] - Eli Lilly has additional promising candidates, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which could further enhance its competitive edge [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Eli Lilly is partnering with Camurus to utilize FluidCrystal technology for long-acting delivery of injectable therapies, addressing the issue of weight regain after discontinuation of medications [8] Group 3: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a 45% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.7 billion and a 29% increase in net income to $3 billion in the first quarter [11] - Despite a higher forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.3 compared to the healthcare industry's average of 15.9, Eli Lilly's growth justifies the premium [11] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Eli Lilly is not solely focused on diabetes or weight loss, as it has also developed breakthrough medicines in other therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer's disease [10] - The company's strong financial results and promising pipeline make its stock an attractive long-term investment [12]

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 司美格鲁肽（Semaglutide）是由诺和诺德公司开发的一种胰高血糖素样肽-1（GLP-1）受体激动剂，已被批准用于治疗2型糖尿病及肥 胖症。其通过抑制食欲、降低热量摄入来实现减重效果，自上市以来在减肥市场引发强烈反响。今年第一季度，其全球销售额已超过78 亿美元，彻底改变了减肥药物市场格局。 不过，美国制药巨头礼来公司开发的GLP-1/GIP双受体激动剂替尔泊肽（Tirzepatide），正在迅速迎头赶上。根据2024年5月发表于 《新英格兰医学杂志》（NEJM）的一项头对头比较研究（SURMOUNT-5试验），替尔泊肽在减轻体重和缩小腰围方面的效果明显优 于司美格鲁肽。在为期72周的治疗中，接受替尔泊肽的患者平均减重20.2%（约22.8公斤），其中31.6%的人减重幅度达到或超过 25%。与此同时，替尔泊肽今年一季度的销售额已突破61亿美元，逼近司美格鲁肽。 2025年6月22日，《新英格兰医学杂志》同步刊登了两项关键3a期临床试验结果，重点评估卡格列肽（Cagrilintide）与司美格鲁肽的复 方制剂（统称CagriSema）在不同人群中的减重效果。一项试验面向 ...

In this articleNOVO.B-DKLLYA sign with the company logo sits outside of the headquarters of Eli Lilly in Indianapolis, Indiana, on March 17, 2024.Scott Olson | Getty ImagesA version of this article first appeared in CNBC's Healthy Returns newsletter, which brings the latest health-care news straight to your inbox. Subscribe here to receive future editions.Competition in the blockbuster weight loss drug market is ramping up, as drugmakers share fresh data on new and existing treatments. The annual American D ...

Key Takeaways How the Decision Affects NVO's Competitive Edge in Obesity Novo Nordisk had signed the partnership agreement with HIMS in late April. Through the deal, the company was also trying to grow its obesity market share by boosting sales through increased patient access to Wegovy. NVO faces intense competition from Eli Lilly (LLY) , which markets its tirzepatide medicines, Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity). Despite being on the market for less than three years, Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound ...

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk is seeking early-stage deals to enhance its next-generation weight loss drug portfolio amid increasing competition in the booming weight loss market [1] - The company faces significant challenges following the global success of its diabetes drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, leading to a substantial decline in its stock price as competitors like Eli Lilly enter the market [1] - Following a series of setbacks, Novo Nordisk announced the dismissal of CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen last month to realign its business strategy [1] Group 2 - The core strategy of Novo Nordisk involves searching for new weight loss therapies and applying them to more obesity-related diseases, highlighted by a recent $2.2 billion collaboration with Septerna to develop drugs for obesity and diabetes [2] - In March, Novo Nordisk committed to pay up to $2 billion to a Chinese biotech company for a drug license similar to Eli Lilly's next-generation weight loss drug retatrutide [2] - The company is exploring areas beyond incretin hormones, which are the basis for its existing blockbuster drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, as well as next-generation drugs CagriSema and amycretin [2] Group 3 - The responsibility of the new product and portfolio strategy head, Ludovic Helfgott, is to align Novo Nordisk's commercial strategy with its long-term goals [3] - The company is focusing on emerging new compounds, particularly amycretin, to assist patients with obesity-related conditions such as sleep apnea, a field previously unexplored by Novo Nordisk [3] - Helfgott emphasized that the company is not dismissing any new drugs and is closely monitoring market dynamics and emerging opportunities [3]