逻辑重构 被颠覆的榜单 翻阅近两年的全球医药市场成绩单，一个显著的信号是：医药行业的竞争格局正在发生深刻演变。过去长期占据全球"药王"宝 座的，大多是针对癌症、自身免疫性疾病等重疾的"救命药"。但现在，以网红"司美格鲁肽"（Semaglutide）为代表的GLP-1类减 重代谢新药，正在以一种不可思议的速度向上攀升，数据显示，它们已经抢占了全球药王的位置。 以诺和诺德的"司美家族"为例，其在全球已积累超过3800万"患者年"，今年上半年的销售额便突破百亿美元大关。庞大数字的 背后，不仅是生物医药行业治疗理念的迁徙，更是人类对待健康方式的根本性转变。 从药企的商业视角看，当适应症从一个独立的"糖尿病"拓展到 "多重代谢管理"。市场就从现有患者的存量博弈转向了面向数亿 人的增量空间。随着市场潜力的释放，行业竞争已进入白热化阶段。以行业领军者诺和诺德的布局为例，我们可以窥见行业构 建护城河的新逻辑。 在研发端，药企正加速储备效果更强、机制更优的下一代产品（如CagriSema），旨在持续巩固技术壁垒。在产品端，为了实现 全方位的健康管理，产品形态正经历多元化升级：降糖版司美： 稳固代谢治疗的基础份额，建立科学认知； ...

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is expected to recover from a challenging 2025, with potential growth in 2026 driven by new product approvals and pipeline advancements [1][2]. Group 1: New Approvals - Novo Nordisk secured significant label expansions for its weight management drug Wegovy, now approved for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and has an oral version approved for weight loss [3][5]. - Wegovy's MASH indication has the potential to generate over $1 billion in sales, benefiting from Novo Nordisk's larger resources compared to competitors like Madrigal Pharmaceuticals [6]. - The oral formulation of Wegovy is expected to attract patients preferring daily pills over weekly injections, contributing to improved top-line growth [7]. Group 2: Pipeline Progress - Novo Nordisk aims to regain market share in the GLP-1 market, with ongoing pipeline candidates expected to contribute positively [8]. - A promising candidate, amycretin, is in phase 3 studies and mimics the actions of GLP-1 and amylin, with interim data anticipated next year [9]. - Other investigational products, such as UBT251, could also enhance Novo Nordisk's market position if they show strong progress [10]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is expected to see strong sales from Wegovy and Ozempic in the coming years, alongside new launches like CagriSema [11]. - Novo Nordisk's shares are currently valued at around 14 times forward earnings, which is lower than the healthcare sector average of 18.4, indicating a potential buying opportunity [12].

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk is transitioning from a market leader to an underperformer, particularly in its weight loss business, and is striving to regain investor confidence as it approaches 2026 [1][2]. Company Performance - Novo's stock has faced its worst year since its inception on the Copenhagen stock exchange, attributed to guidance cuts, competition from Eli Lilly, leadership changes, and the influx of cheaper generic drugs in the U.S. market [2]. - The approval of Wegovy, an oral weight loss pill, has provided a temporary boost, increasing shares by nearly 10% as investors hope it will help Novo compete against rivals [3][4]. Product Development - Wegovy's approval as the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight loss is seen as a significant milestone, with analysts acknowledging its potential to recover lost market share [4]. - Wegovy in pill form has demonstrated an average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks, compared to Eli Lilly's orforglipron, which averages 12.4% over 72 weeks [8]. Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly is expected to receive FDA approval for its own weight loss pill, orforglipron, by the second quarter of 2026, intensifying competition in the market [5]. - Eli Lilly's Zepbound has gained significant market share, positioning it as a leading treatment for weight loss injections, surpassing Novo's Wegovy [10]. Market Strategy - Novo's strategy emphasizes treating obesity as a disease rather than just focusing on weight loss, which may not resonate with the U.S. market's preferences for immediate weight loss results [11][13]. - The company is also focusing on the direct-to-consumer market, which is crucial for future sales growth, especially as it faces pressure from U.S. drug pricing policies [15][18]. Regulatory and Pricing Challenges - The Trump administration's deal with Novo and Lilly aims to lower prices for GLP-1 medications, which could enhance Novo's competitiveness against cheaper alternatives [17][18]. - Novo's leadership changes and strategic decisions are under scrutiny, with investors looking for signs of improvement in U.S. operations [20][21]. Future Outlook - The approval of a higher dose of Wegovy could align with market demands for greater weight loss efficacy, potentially enhancing Novo's competitive position [14]. - Long-term competition is expected to increase as other pharmaceutical companies advance their weight loss drug candidates, indicating a need for Novo to innovate and diversify its treatment options [24].

Other drugmakers seem to be too far behind to disrupt this duopoly, at least for now.The weight loss market has garnered plenty of headlines over the past two years. Yet, to date, and despite plenty of pipeline candidates, only two brands dominate this field. One of them is Wegovy, a medication marketed by Novo Nordisk (NVO 0.30%), and the other is Zepbound, which was developed by Eli Lilly (LLY +0.07%). These two are the undisputed leaders in this therapeutic area, and they could soon solidify their lead w ...

Core Insights - Eli Lilly has achieved strong returns due to its advancements in weight management, positioning itself as a leader in this market [1] - The company is not resting on its laurels and continues to innovate, suggesting it may outpace competitors [1] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk is the only significant competitor to Eli Lilly in the weight loss drug market, with its product Wegovy generating billions in sales [2] - Novo Nordisk is seeking label expansions and has requested FDA approval for a higher dose of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy [3][4] Product Performance - Eli Lilly's Zepbound has demonstrated superior average weight loss compared to Wegovy in clinical trials, generating $9.3 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2025, while Wegovy generated approximately $9 billion [5] - Novo Nordisk's pipeline includes Amycretin, which is in phase 3 studies, but Eli Lilly's pipeline remains stronger with promising candidates like orforglipron and retatrutide [6][7] Market Position - Eli Lilly is clearly leading the weight loss market, with its current and future products positioning it ahead of competitors [8] - Novo Nordisk's CagriSema, which achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7%, is under regulatory review but still falls short compared to Eli Lilly's offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is shifting its focus from merely achieving higher weight loss percentages to exploring alternative methods for addressing obesity, particularly through new drug mechanisms and oral formulations [3][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Innovations - The weight loss drug industry is reaching a consensus that a 25% weight loss may be the upper limit achievable through drug interventions, with increasing difficulty in achieving stable and tolerable breakthroughs [3][6]. - On December 8, 2023, several biotech companies focused on next-generation weight loss drugs saw significant stock price increases, driven by early clinical data on oral small molecules and new mechanisms outside of GLP-1 [3]. - Eli Lilly's Retatrutide reported a 28.7% weight loss in its Phase III TRIUMPH-4 study, surpassing the previously accepted 25% ceiling, but this came with higher discontinuation rates and new adverse reaction signals [5][13]. Group 2: Clinical Data and Implications - The TRIUMPH-4 study included 445 participants with obesity or overweight and knee osteoarthritis, indicating a larger weight loss potential due to the higher baseline BMI of participants [15]. - Retatrutide demonstrated significant improvements in pain scores related to osteoarthritis, suggesting its clinical value extends beyond weight loss alone [20]. - The study revealed that 47.7% and 58.6% of participants in the 9 mg and 12 mg groups, respectively, achieved at least 25% weight loss, while only 1.3% in the placebo group did [22]. Group 3: Future Directions in Weight Loss Drug Development - The next generation of weight loss drugs is expected to focus on improving tolerability and adherence rather than solely maximizing weight loss percentages, with oral formulations and receptor signaling pathways becoming key areas of exploration [29][30]. - Companies like Structure Therapeutics and Wave Life Sciences are developing oral small molecules and RNA therapies that aim to enhance patient compliance and address body composition rather than just weight [30][36]. - The competition in the weight loss drug market is evolving towards a more nuanced understanding of patient needs, emphasizing long-term management and the optimization of body composition [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The pathology business is entering a fast track with the National Healthcare Security Administration issuing guidelines for pricing projects in pathology services, focusing on biopsy sampling, sample processing, and digitalization of pathology data, which is expected to enhance the application of AI in the field [3][11]. - The influenza activity has peaked across the board, with reported cases in southern provinces at 9.7%, down from 11.2% the previous week, but higher than the same period in previous years [3][11]. Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector fell by 0.14% from December 15 to December 19, outperforming the Wind All A index (-0.15%) and the CSI 300 index (-0.28%). The rebound was weak, with segments like pharmaceutical distribution (5.59%), offline pharmacies (4.69%), and hospitals (4.15%) leading gains, while chemical preparations (-2.1%), vaccines (-0.87%), and medical R&D outsourcing (-0.87%) lagged [3][8]. - Notable stock performances included Huaren Health (55.9%), Luyuan Pharmaceutical (36.8%), and Shuyupingmin (35.7%) with significant gains, while *ST Changyao (-24%), Yipinhong (-23.7%), and Rejing Biology (-16.5%) faced substantial declines [3][11]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Healthcare Security Administration's guidelines for pathology services are expected to drive high-quality development in the sector and create new scenarios for AI-assisted technology applications [11]. - Significant collaborations and approvals were reported, including Shanghai Jinmante's partnership with Jiangsu Kangning Jerey for a breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA for JSKN003, and Novo Nordisk's submission of a marketing application for CagriSema, which showed a weight loss of 22.7% over 68 weeks in clinical trials [12][13]. - Fosun Pharma's subsidiary received FDA approval to initiate a Phase I clinical trial for HLX18, a biosimilar to Nivolumab, targeting various cancers [13][14].

型及 E 45 CE 7 2025 年 12 月 22 日 版 行业 《本周申万医药生物指数下跌 1.0%，关注 创新药对外授权动态 -- 医药行业周报 (2025/12/08-2025/12/12) 》 2025/12/14 《本周申万医药生物指数上涨 2.7%，关注 医保与创新药动态——医药行业周报 (2025/11/24-2025/11/28)》 2025/11/30 证券分析师 张静含 A0230522080004 zhangjh@swsresearch.com 陈田甜 A0230524080013 chentt@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈田甜 A0230524080013 chentt@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 市场表现：本周申万医药生物指数下跌 0.1%，同期上证指数上涨 0.03%，万得全 A ● (除金融石油石化) 下跌 0.5%。本周医药生物指数在 31 个申万一级子行业中表现排 名第 22。各三级板块涨跌幅为：原料药（+0.5%）、化学制剂（-2.1%）、中药 （+0.2%）、血液制品（-0.3%）、疫苗（-0.9%）、其他生物制 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 本 周 申 万 医 药 生 物 指 数 下 跌 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《本周申万医药生物指数下跌 1.0%，关注 创新药对外授权动态——医药行业周报 （2025/12/08-2025/12/12）》 2025/12/14 《本周申万医药生物指数上涨 2.7%，关注 医保与创新药动态——医药行业周报 （2025/11/24-2025/11/28）》 2025/11/30 行 业 及 产 业 医药生物 张静含 A0230522080004 zhangjh@swsresearch.com 陈田甜 A0230524080013 chentt@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈田甜 A0230524080013 chentt@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 市场表现：本周申万医药生物指数下跌 0.1%，同期上证指数上涨 0.03%，万得全 A （除金融石油石化）下跌 0.5%。本周医药生物指数在 31 个申万一级子行业中表现排 名第 22。各三级板块涨跌幅为：原料药（+0.5%）、化学制剂（-2.1%）、中药 （+0.2%） ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 银屑病口服 TYK2/IL23 双雄并立格局确立， 建议关注益方生物，诺诚健华，海思科等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 23 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 2024/12/23 2025/4/22 2025/8/20 2025/12/18 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《全球最大单品 GLP1，口服临床数据 亮眼》 2025-12-14 《看好创新药出海，重点推荐恒瑞医 药、百济神州等》 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 30 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为-0.14%、14.49%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为 0.14%、-1.60%；本周、年初至今恒生医疗保健 指数涨跌幅分别为-1.77%、65.28%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢 1.05%、 ...