February WTI crude oil (CLG26) on Friday closed up +1.36 (+2.35%), and February RBOB gasoline (RBG26) closed up +0.0203 (+1.15%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied on Friday, posting 1-month highs.  Rising tensions in Iran, the fourth-largest producer in OPEC, are supporting crude prices as protests against the government escalate.  Also, optimism in the US economic outlook is supportive for energy demand and crude prices after the US Dec unemployment rate fell and  Jan consumer sentiment increased.   ...

January 4, 2026 05:00 PM GMT The Oil Manual | Europe Outlook 2026: Letting the Curve Do the Work The expected surplus arrived in 2H25 and is likely to grow larger in 1H26. Rising inventories will require a steeper contango across the entire Brent curve, putting pressure on front-month prices. However, as the long-end is likely to stay resilient, spot prices should find support in the mid/upper-50s. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Including oil in transit, inventories built sharply in 2025, particularly in 2H. Thes ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have experienced a significant decline, with gasoline reaching a 1.5-week low, influenced by a stronger dollar and geopolitical developments [2][4] - A report indicated that the Trump administration has been collaborating with Russia to formulate a new strategy to resolve the Ukraine conflict, adding downward pressure on energy prices [2] - OPEC has revised its Q3 global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus, now estimating a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to increased US production and OPEC's own output [5] Price Movements - December WTI crude oil closed down by $1.30 (-2.14%) and December RBOB gasoline fell by $0.0672 (-3.36%) [1] - The dollar index reached a 2-week high, contributing to the bearish sentiment in energy markets [2] Supply Dynamics - Russian crude oil exports have decreased significantly, with shipments dropping to 1.7 million bpd in the first half of November, the lowest in over three years [3] - Ukraine's military actions have targeted Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 13% to 20% and impacting crude production by up to 1.1 million bpd [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran's seizure of an oil tanker and US military preparations regarding Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 bpd for December but plans to pause further increases in Q1 2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus [6] - The IEA has projected a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - OPEC's crude production rose to 29.07 million bpd in October, the highest level in 2.5 years, as the organization works to restore previous production cuts [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing significant declines, with gasoline reaching a 1.5-week low, influenced by a stronger dollar and geopolitical developments [2][4] - A report indicates that the Trump administration is collaborating with Russia to formulate a new plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict, adding pressure to energy prices [2] - Russian crude exports have decreased significantly, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions [3][4] Price Movements - December WTI crude oil is down by $1.47 (-2.42%) and December RBOB gasoline is down by $0.0612 (-3.06%) [1] - The dollar index has reached a 1.5-week high, contributing to bearish sentiment in energy markets [2] Supply Dynamics - The EIA reported a mixed inventory situation, with crude supplies declining more than expected while gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased [2] - OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market outlook from a deficit to a surplus, now estimating a surplus of 500,000 bpd, driven by higher US production and increased OPEC output [5] - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 bpd in December but will pause further increases in Q1-2026 due to the anticipated global oil surplus [6] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the seizure of an oil tanker by Iran and US military actions regarding Venezuela, are providing underlying support for oil prices [4] - Ukraine's military actions have significantly impacted Russian refining capacity, reducing it by 13% to 20% and affecting crude export capabilities [3]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing a recovery after a significant sell-off, influenced by a decline in the dollar index and the reopening of the US government, which is expected to boost economic growth and energy demand [2][5] - However, the gains in crude prices are limited due to an unexpected rise in crude inventories and record-high US oil production [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, crude prices fell to a three-week low as OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, now projecting a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) [3] - The EIA has increased its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.53 million bpd [3] - Saudi Arabia has lowered the price of its main crude grade to Asia for the first time in 11 months, indicating bearish market sentiment [4] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - China's crude imports from January to October increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 471 million metric tons, providing some support for oil prices [4] - The US military's potential military actions against Venezuela, the 12th largest oil producer, have also contributed to price support [5] Group 3: OPEC+ and Production Adjustments - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 bpd for December but plans to pause further hikes in Q1 2026 due to an emerging global oil surplus [6] - OPEC's October crude production rose by 50,000 bpd to 29.07 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] Group 4: Geopolitical Influences - Reduced crude exports from Russia, due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries and new sanctions from the US and EU, have limited Russia's export capabilities, supporting oil prices [7] - Ukrainian actions have led to a significant reduction in Russia's refining capacity, curbing production by as much as 1.1 million bpd [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The oil market is anticipated to experience a significant surplus in the coming quarters, which is both large and well-anticipated, suggesting a potential weakening of prices but not a disorderly sell-off [1][10] - The forecast for Brent crude oil prices remains unchanged at $60 per barrel for 1Q 2026 [1][6] Core Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - Demand growth has stabilized at a below-trend rate of 0.75 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2025, with a consensus forecast of approximately 0.85 mb/d [9][24] - Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow robustly, with a projected increase of 0.9 mb/d from mid-2025 to the end of the year, driven by new projects in Brazil and Guyana [9][54] - OPEC supply has increased by approximately 1 mb/d since March, primarily from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but is expected to stabilize moving forward [9][11][66] - **Price Forecasts**: - Despite the anticipated oversupply, Brent prices are expected to remain above $60/bbl due to factors such as storage economics, potential OPEC cuts, and market expectations [14][17] - A surplus of 1.5 mb/d is projected for 4Q 2025, increasing to over 2 mb/d in 1H 2026 [81][83] Additional Important Insights - **Refinery Operations**: - Refinery crude runs are at their highest levels for several quarters, driven by strong margins despite a decline in refining capacity due to shutdowns [3][31] - Observable inventories of refined products have started to rise, indicating that refineries may be overcompensating for closures [35][37] - **Geopolitical Factors**: - Heightened geopolitical risks, including potential sanctions on Iranian oil and tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian oil, could disrupt supply [16] - **Market Sentiment**: - The current market sentiment is characterized by a paradox where oil prices are relatively cheap compared to other assets, yet demand growth remains sluggish [16][28] - **Long-term Outlook**: - The oil market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with a slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth anticipated after a strong exit rate in 2025 [55][56] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the oil market, including supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts, and geopolitical considerations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil market, suggesting that while a surplus is expected, prices are unlikely to fall below $60 per barrel [5][63]. Core Insights - The oil market is projected to return to a sizeable surplus after summer, with a surplus of 1.3-1.6 million barrels per day anticipated from Q4 2025 [3][22]. - Global oil inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels from January to June 2025, but most of this build occurred outside key pricing centers, which has kept Brent prices relatively stable [11][13]. - Non-OECD countries, particularly China, have significantly increased their oil reserves, which may indicate a shift in oil's role as a store of value compared to gold [2][49]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to experience a surplus of 1.5 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, increasing to over 2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [22][38]. - Non-OECD production is growing robustly, with estimates of non-OECD total oil liquids supply reaching 1.2 million barrels per day, outpacing global demand growth [25][26]. Price Forecasts - Brent price forecasts remain unchanged, with expectations of $67.5 in Q3 2025 and $60 in subsequent quarters [7]. - The report suggests that the Brent curve will need to shift into a contango structure to support storage economics, which could provide price support around $60 per barrel [5][63]. Inventory Trends - Commercial OECD stocks are expected to build by no more than 165 million barrels over the next 12 months, returning to levels seen in 2017 [4][51]. - The geographical distribution of inventory builds has been uneven, with significant increases in non-OECD countries and oil on the water, which do not correlate strongly with spot prices [18][19]. Market Structure - The current structure of the Brent futures curve indicates market tightness, despite the overall surplus, as inventories in key pricing centers remain low [12][17]. - The report highlights that the forward curve's structure will be crucial in determining how much of the surplus will be absorbed by inventories [63].