Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on selected companies within the MENA region, particularly focusing on UAE and Saudi Arabia [9][45]. Core Insights - The GCC markets exhibit resilience to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a focus on sectors less sensitive to oil prices, particularly in the UAE [2][54]. - A bearish outlook for oil prices is anticipated in 2025-26 due to increased non-OPEC production, but a bullish cycle is expected to follow from 2027 onwards [8][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of economic diversification in the UAE, which is less exposed to oil price fluctuations compared to Saudi Arabia [27][55]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The US macro team has raised the growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1% and reduced the 12-month recession odds to 35% [15][20]. - The perceived de-escalation of tariffs is seen as an indirect positive for GCC markets, although oil price movements remain a more relevant driver for regional performance [17][21]. Sector Analysis - The UAE is highlighted as favorably positioned due to its economic diversification, with strong prospects in Real Estate, Energy, and Mobility sectors [3][54]. - In Saudi Arabia, the focus is on identifying resilient companies in the TMT sector and selective opportunities within Financials, Consumers, and Chemicals [3][54]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors identified for investment include UAE Real Estate, Energy (specifically ADNOC), and Infrastructure/Mobility [10][12]. - In Saudi Arabia, companies like Saudi Aramco and SABIC are favored due to their strong fundamentals and strategic positioning [10][45]. Capex Cycle Insights - The report anticipates continued spending momentum across sectors in the GCC, particularly in Energy, Digital Innovation, and Clean Tech, despite a lower oil price environment [46][50]. - The GCC Capex Wave is expected to focus on non-oil sectors, with significant investments in digitization, metals & mining, and clean energy [39][40]. Company-Specific Recommendations - The report recommends a selective approach to investments in banks, favoring those with a balanced loan mix and strong deposit franchises, such as SNB and Riyad Bank [10][45]. - In the consumer sector, companies like Almarai and Lulu are under scrutiny for their ability to navigate current market pressures [10][12].