ab 9 January 2026 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Key Themes and Possible Surprises in 2026 Our baseline economic forecasts and key themes We expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution. Overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, with property downturn to continue albeit with smaller contractions, consumption to maintain a modest but softer pace, infrastructure and manuf ...