机构：中金公司 研究员：王文丹/王雪骄/陈文博 首次覆盖 投资亮点 首次覆盖IFBH（06603）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价22.00 港元，基于PE 估值法，对应2026 年P/E 为23 倍，公司在中国椰子水行业中市占率第一。理由如下： 健康饮品消费趋势下，我们认为椰子水行业仍有较大的增长空间。椰子水天然健康属性满足健康饮品消 费趋势，渠道渗透率提升和产品创新驱动行业增长。根据灼识咨询，预计中国椰子水行业零售规模2025 年为99.62 亿元，25-29 年CAGR 有望达到17%，2029 年行业规模或接近200 亿元。 品牌数量增加，激发行业活力。消费者认知来看，椰子水不再是小众轻奢饮品，已回到普通果汁饮料的 竞争序列。在行业内品牌数量增加的背景下，if、佳果源等头部品牌有望依靠供应链、品牌建设维持较 高的市场份额。 风险 原材料价格波动风险，竞争加剧风险，产品质量和安全问题，销售渠道依赖风险，汇率波动风险，对单 一产品、单一市场依赖、新品建设不及预期的风险。 IFBH 专注品牌运营，构筑品类护城河。公司起家于泰国，通过轻资产模式专注品牌运营，将生产制造 等重资产环节交给第三方，因此运营效率较高。公司通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is projected to have a lower limit of 30 times PE and an upper limit approaching 70 times, driven by fundamentals and liquidity [1] Valuation History - Historical PE ranges for HKEX: 2014-2015 PE ranged from 29 to 67, benefiting from the launch of Stock Connect and easing investment restrictions; 2017-2018 PE ranged from 28 to 54, influenced by the opening of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and tightening liquidity due to U.S.-China tensions; 2020-2021 PE ranged from 29 to 68, with reforms attracting new economy and Chinese concept stocks [1] - Current PE for HKEX is at 38 times, with a favorable outlook due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and support from mainland China [1] Market Dynamics - The core factor for HKEX's profitability is Average Daily Turnover (ADT), calculated as total market capitalization multiplied by turnover rate [1] - Recent reforms at HKEX aim to attract A/H listed companies and facilitate the return of Chinese concept stocks, increasing the market capitalization of new economy sectors from 17% in 2018 to 35% in 2025 YTD [1] - Southbound capital inflows are enhancing ADT and turnover rates, driven by low interest rates and asset scarcity in mainland China, leading to increased participation from long-term institutional investors and individual investors [1] Financial Projections - The company is rated as a buy, with a projected upside of 24% based on relative PE valuation, targeting a PE of 42 times and a market value of HKD 692 billion [2] - Expected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 165 billion, 179 billion, and 188 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 26%, 9%, and 5% respectively [2]